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MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis 

19 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (M18) 157.73-97 Support Region Key Today
*RES 4: 159.27 Monthly High Jan 8
*RES 3: 158.64 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: 158.39 High Jan 23
*RES 1: 158.30 Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.18
*SUP 1: 157.97 High Mar 15 now support
*SUP 2: 157.73 Hourly resistance Mar 14 now support
*SUP 3: 157.34 Low Mar 14
*SUP 4: 157.02 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 158.39 resistance is less than ideal for
bulls who need a close above this level to confirm focus on 159.27-58. The
Bollinger top (158.30) is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.
Bears still need a close below 157.73 to ease bullish pressure and below the
21-DMA (156.86) to confirm a break of the bull channel base off Feb 15 lows,
hinting at a move back to 154.62 and below 156.22 to confirm.
     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.540-610 Support Region Now Key
*RES 4: 131.023 100-DMA 
*RES 3: 130.980 High Jan 11 
*RES 2: 130.811 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: 130.741 Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.720
*SUP 1: 130.610 Low Mar 16
*SUP 2: 130.540 Low Mar 15
*SUP 3: 130.380 Low Mar 13
*SUP 4: 130.210 Low Mar 9
*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the bull channel top and overall focus
on 130.980-131.023 where the 100-DMA is located. The Bollinger top remains the
key concern and currently limits follow through. In saying that, support
continues to emerge on dips. Bears look for a close below 130.540 to ease
bullish pressure and below 130.210 now to shift focus back to 129.840-130.015
where the bull channel base off Feb lows is located.
     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 111.855
*RES 4: 112.065 Monthly low Sept 2017 
*RES 3: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 
*RES 2: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 
*RES 1: 111.906 Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.900
*SUP 1: 111.870 Low Mar 16 
*SUP 2: 111.855 Low Mar 15 
*SUP 3: 111.830 Low Mar 14 
*SUP 4: 111.805 Low Mar 9
*COMMENTARY: The close above the 100-DMA (111.892) adds to bullish confidence
but a close above 111.945 is needed to confirm focus on 112.050-065. Layers of
support continue to emerge. Bears now need a close below 111.855 to gain
breathing room and below 111.805 to target a correction back to 111.715 although
the 21 (111.787) and 55 (111.733) DMAs may support along the way. The Bollinger
top is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.
     GILT TECHS: (M18) 121.65 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: 123.08 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 122.44 100-DMA 
*RES 2: 122.14 Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: 122.12 High Mar 16
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.91
*SUP 1: 121.68 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: 121.65 High Mar 13 now support 
*SUP 3: 121.38 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 
*SUP 4: 121.13 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in closes above the 55-DMA that reconfirm focus
on 122.44-123.08 where the 100-DMA and daily bull channel top are located. The
Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through. Bears
still need a close below 121.65 to confirm a false break of the 55-DMA and ease
bullish pressure. Below 120.89 is needed to hint at a move back to 119.29 with
below 120.29 to confirm.
     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.150 & 99.220 Levels Still Key
*RES 4: 99.271 100-DMA
*RES 3: 99.256 55-DMA
*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb
*RES 1: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.190
*SUP 1: 99.170 Repeated daily lows Mar
*SUP 2: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support
*SUP 3: 99.143 Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is hesitating around the 21-DMA
(99.183). Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of
the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.256-271 where 55 & 100-DMAs are
situated. The 99.150 support remains key. Bears need a close below 99.150 to
reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110 where 2018 lows are situated.
     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 100.285
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.300 - Repeated 2018 Highs Jan - Mar
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300
*SUP 1: 100.285 - Low Mar 15
*SUP 2: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support
*SUP 3: 100.270 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 100.259 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows as the contract gains traction above the
weekly bear channel top (100.260) off 2016 highs. Closes above the bull channel
top sees bulls now focused on layers of resistance 100.320-340 although the
Bollinger band top (100.297) remains a concern with potential to limit follow
through. Bears now need a close below 100.285 to gain breathing room and below
100.275 to pressure DMAs 100.259-270.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-23/121-04+ Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 121-04+ 55-DMA
*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7
*RES 2: 120-23  High Mar 1
*RES 1: 120-14  Hourly resistance Mar 16
*PRICE: 120-09 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 120-07+ Low Mar 14
*SUP 2: 120-04+ 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9
*SUP 4: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb
*COMMENTARY: The 120-23/121-04+ resistance region where the 55-DMA remains key
with the 120-23 level capping last week and reconfirming significance. Bulls
need a close above 120-23 to hint at a move to 122-02 with above the 55-DMA to
confirm. The Bollinger band top (120-20+) remains the key concern for bulls.
Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to ease pressure on resistance layers and
below 119-26+ to initially focus on 119-14.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.883-2.957 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 2.925 - High Feb 27 
*RES 3: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 
*RES 2: 2.883 - High Mar 13 
*RES 1: 2.869 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: 2.854 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.835 - High Mar 15 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 
*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7
*COMMENTARY: The 2.758-793 support remains key and reconfirmed significance with
the correction from 2.914 finding support ahead of this region. Bears need a
close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.696
although the 55-DMA (2.737) may slow the move. Bulls continue to look for a
close above 2.883 to gain breathing room with a close above 2.957 2018 highs to
shift focus back to tests of 3.041 2014 highs.
     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3372.53-3419.01 Now Key Support
*RES 4: 3494.97 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 3480.46 Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: 3476.21 High Feb 27 
*RES 1: 3448.63 High Mar 16
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3437.40
*SUP 1: 3419.01 High Mar 15 now support 
*SUP 2: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 
*SUP 3: 3337.39 Low Mar 7 
*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9
*COMMENTARY: The close above 3419.01sees bulls gain breathing room although
fresh highs for the week lacked follow through. Bulls now look for a close above
the 55-DMA to initially target 3523.28-3570.95 where 100 (3538.96) & 200
(3525.78) DMAs are located. The 3384.20-3419.01 support region is key this week.
Bears need a close below 3419.01 to ease bullish pressure and below 3372.53 to
return focus to 2018 lows (3280.36).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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