MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

1 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 157.90-158.38 Support Region Key Today

*RES 4: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 160.08 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28

*RES 1: 159.55 High Apr 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.81

*SUP 1: 158.78 High Apr 27 now support

*SUP 2: 158.38 Low Apr 30

*SUP 3: 157.90 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*SUP 4: 157.43 Low Mar 24

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging below the 55-DMA (157.75) combined with correcting

O/S daily studies has resulted in a correction that sees the contract flirting

with the 21-DMA (158.86) and focus back to 159.55-69. Bulls then need a close

above 159.69 to shift initial focus to 160.98 Dec highs. Bears now look for a

close below 158.38 to ease bullish pressure and below 157.90 to see pressure

back on the 157.34-43 supports from last week.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Focus Shifts To 131.120-310

*RES 4: 131.380 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 2: 131.240 High Apr 6 

*RES 1: 131.120 100-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.040

*SUP 1: 130.996 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 130.780 Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*SUP 3: 130.697 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 130.583 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back towards the 55-DMA has resulted in a

close above the 21-DMA and immediate focus returning to layers of resistance

131.120-310. Bull snow need a close above 131.310 to confirm focus on the bull

channel top (131.840). The 21-DMA is now initial support but bears look for a

close below 130.780 to ease bullish pressure and below 130.510 to shift initial

focus to 130.210 and overall focus to 129.840.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.945 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 3: 111.967 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 1: 111.930 Highs Apr 10 & 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.895

*SUP 1: 111.875 Low Apr 27 

*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 4: 111.715 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on dips below the 100-DMA (111.831)

resulted in a close above the 21-DMA (111.900). Bulls need a close above 111.945

to confirm traction above the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 111.967-990

where the Bollinger top is noted. Bears now look for a close below 111.875 to

gain breathing room and below 111.805 to confirm traction below DMAs and

initially target 111.715. O/S studies have corrected back to neutral levels.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 123.08 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 2: 122.84 Highs Apr 11 & 18 

*RES 1: 122.19 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.26

*SUP 1: 121.85 Low Apr 30 

*SUP 2: 121.45 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.07 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: 120.69 Low Mar 21

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of 120.69 resulted in a close above the

100-DMA (122.12) Monday with focus having returned to the 122.84-123.03 region

where monthly highs are situated. Initial support is now noted at 121.85 lows

from Monday but bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish

pressure. Bears then need a close below 120.69 to hint at a move back to

119.29-83 with below 120.29 to confirm.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.270 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 99.340 Repeated Daily Highs Jan

*RES 3: 99.310 High Feb 7

*RES 2: 99.298 200-DMA

*RES 1: 99.270 Lows Feb 2 & 5 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.250

*SUP 1: 99.230 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb now support

*SUP 3: 99.210 High Apr 20 now support

*SUP 4: 99.180 Highs Apr 25 & 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to take out the 99.145-160 support region last week

with the aggressive bounce Friday seeing closes above the 100-DMA and focus now

on 99.270. Daily studies are very O/B and the Bollinger top (99.234) is also a

concern. Bears now look for a close below the 100-DMA to gain breathing room and

below 99.210 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 99.145-160

support region.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.295 & 100.305 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28, Apr 6 & 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Apr

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low, 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 4: 100.272 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation around 2018 highs saw pressure on the 100.295

support. Bears continue to look for a close below this level to shift initial

focus back to 100.272-285 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018

lows are noted. Bulls still need a close above 100.305 to target 100.320-340

with the daily bull channel top now noted at 100.322.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) O/S Daily Studies Impacting

*RES 4: 120-07+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 120-06+ High Apr 19

*RES 2: 120-02+ Low Apr 18 now resistance

*RES 1: 119-29+ High Apr 20

*PRICE: 119-17 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 119-09  High Apr 25 now support

*SUP 2: 118-31  2018 Low Apr 25

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies look to be impacting with the contract closing

last week above 119-14+. Bulls now look for a close above Y120-06+ to initially

target a correction back to 120-21+/24. Bulls take comfort in the 119-09 level

supporting Friday with bears needing a close below to retain initial focus on

retests of 2018 lows and overall focus on 117-22+/118-24 where the weekly bear

channel base and 2011 low are located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.988 - High Apr 27

*PRICE: 2.953 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.934 - Low Apr 30 

*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (3.039). The

close below 3.007 initially targets a correction to 2.925. Below 2.925 is needed

to shift initial focus back to 2.814-876 where 21 (2.876) & 55 (2.863) DMAs are

situated. Bulls look for a close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the

weekly bull channel top is noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bullish Confidence Receives A Boost

*RES 4: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1 

*RES 3: 3600.36 Low Jan 21 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3570.95 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 1: 3564.23 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3536.52

*SUP 1: 3523.81 High Apr 24 now support 

*SUP 2: 3502.91 Hourly support Apr 26 

*SUP 3: 3464.35 Low Apr 25 

*SUP 4: 3435.58 Low Apr 16

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 3523.81 took its toll with the close above seeing

immediate focus on 3570.95-3600.36 and overall focus now on tests of 2018 highs

(3687.22). O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. Initial support

is noted at 3523.81 but bears look for a close below 3502.91 to ease bullish

pressure and below 3464.35 to shift focus back to 3383.17 3413.47 where the

55-DMA is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]