MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

11 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U18) 161.26 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 163.03 High May 30

*RES 3: 162.93 High July 6

*RES 2: 162.73 High July 9

*RES 1: 162.57 High July 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.40

*SUP 1: 162.06 Low July 5

*SUP 2: 161.92 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 161.75 Low June 26

*SUP 4: 161.31 Rising daily TL off May 17 low

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 163.03 continues which is less than

ideal for bulls with daily studies correcting from O/B seen weighing. Bulls

still need a close above 163.03 to add support to the bullish case for a test of

164.19-42. The 161.26 support remains key this week. Bears now look for a close

below 161.75 gain breathing room and below 161.26 to shift initial focus back to

159.37-160.37 where the 55-DMA (160.37) is situated.

     BOBL TECHS: (U18) 131.770 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 132.646 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 132.330 High July 2 

*RES 2: 132.270 High July 4 

*RES 1: 132.130 High July 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.040

*SUP 1: 131.961 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 131.770 High June 18 now support, Low June 29

*SUP 3: 131.490 Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 4: 131.289 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation last week resulted in a dip Thursday

reconfirming the significance of the 131.770 support. Bulls now need a close

above 132.13 to gain breathing room and above 132.330 to confirm focus on

132.660-970. Correcting O/B studies look to be weighing and are the key concern

for bulls. Bears continue to look for a close below 131.770 to initially target

131.190-289 where the 55-DMA is noted.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (U18) 55-DMA Key Support This Week

*RES 4: 112.166 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 112.155 Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 2: 112.135 High June 21 

*RES 1: 112.085 Lows July 2 & 3 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.030

*SUP 1: 112.006 Rising daily TL off May low 

*SUP 2: 112.000 Low July 5 

*SUP 3: 111.975 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 4: 111.940 High June 13 now support, 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on last week's dips with support

emerging ahead of 111.975. The 55-DMA is key support. Bears need a close below

111.975 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to shift

initial focus to 111.815-877 where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 112.085 to gain breathing room and above 112.155 to

confirm a shift in focus back to 112.270-425 where 2018 highs are noted.

     GILT TECHS: (U18) 122.28 & 123.64 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: 123.71 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 123.64 High May 30 

*RES 2: 123.49 High July 3 

*RES 1: 123.13 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.92

*SUP 1: 122.76 Low July 9 

*SUP 2: 122.55 Low June 22 

*SUP 3: 122.28 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: 121.99 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped by the 123.49-64 resistance region with

dips finding support around the 21-DMA. Bears look for a close below 122.76 to

confirm breaks of the rising daily TL off May lows (123.01) and the 21-DMA

(122.91) with immediate focus shifting to 122.28. below this level is needed to

shift focus to 121.33-99 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bulls need a close

above 123.64 to reconfirm overall focus on 124.67.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: 99.260 Lows May 25 & 30 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.255 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.230 Lows June 18 & 19 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.201 21-DMA, 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.165

*SUP 1: 99.150 Low July 5

*SUP 2: 99.147 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.140 Lows May 30 - Apr 3

*SUP 4: 99.136 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21 & 55-DMAs with

immediate focus on the 100-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the

100-DMA to shift initial focus back to 99.060 and overall focus back to

98.990-000 where 2018 lows are noted. Bulls now need a close above 21 & 55-DMAs

to gain breathing room and above 99.230 to shift immediate focus back to 99.260.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.300-305 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.310 - 2018 High Repeatedly May 

*RES 3: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Apr/May now resistance 

*RES 2: 100.303 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Highs June 14 & 15, Repeated highs July

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.290 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.286 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.275 - Lows June 21-22 & 25

*SUP 4: 100.265 - High June 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 100.300-305 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above

this region to confirm a bullish bias and initially target 100.320. Daily

studies approaching O/B is less than ideal for bulls. Bears now need a close

below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 100.265 to confirm a break

of the 200-DMA (100.269), shifting immediate focus back to 100.245 and overall

focus back to 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 120-20

*RES 4: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a

*RES 3: 120-20  High July 6

*RES 2: 120-19+ Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 120-13  Hourly resistance June 12

*PRICE: 120-09 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-07  Hourly resistance July 9 now support

*SUP 2: 119-30  Low July 3

*SUP 3: 119-26+ Low June 26

*SUP 4: 119-22+ 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the gapping move higher in Asia that sees

bulls gain breathing room and pressure the 120-13/20 resistance region. Bulls

need a close above 120-13 to pressure 120-20 and above this level to confirm

focus on the key 121-03/12 region. Bears now look for a close below 120-07 to

gain breathing room and below to 100-DMA to shift immediate focus to 119-13+/14+

where the 55-DMA is noted and below 118-29+ to target 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.847 - Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.844 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.825 - Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted. The Bollinger base and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears

and limit follow through. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.884 to gain

breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and

pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3424.60

*RES 4: 3540.64 High June 15

*RES 3: 3514.39 200-DMA

*RES 2: 3505.02 Low June 15 now resistance

*RES 1: 3485.67 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3473.31

*SUP 1: 3451.84 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3424.60 High June 27 now support 

*SUP 3: 3389.44 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3340.50 Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: The 100-DMA supporting adds to bullish confidence with focus on

3485.67-3540.64 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Daily studies approaching O/B

is now an issue. Bears look for a close below 3424.60 to gain breathing room and

below 3389.44 to pressure June lows. Bulls now need a close above 3540.64 to

shift initial focus to 3600.36 and add support to the case for a move targeting

2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]