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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

8 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1861
*RES 4: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance 2 
*RES 3: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 
*RES 2: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now support 
*RES 1: $1.1829 Low Aug 3 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1808 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1768 Hourly support Aug 7 
*SUP 2: $1.1723 Low July 31 
*SUP 3: $1.1671 Low July 28 
*SUP 4: $1.1648 Low July 27
*COMMENTARY: Failure to break the recent 2017 high combined with daily studies
looking to correct from O/B have taken their toll with a sell-off Friday that
eased bullish pressure and hints at a move back to $1.1583-1.1655 where the
21-DMA ($1.1659) is located. Bears need a close below $1.1723 to add weight to
their case. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close above $1.1861
to return focus to 2017 highs.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3004 Support Key
*RES 4: $1.3113 Low Aug 3 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.3094 Low July 31 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.3079 Hourly support Aug 4 
*RES 1: $1.3059 High Aug 7
*PRICE: $1.3044 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3015 Low Aug 7 
*SUP 2: $1.3004 Low July 25 
*SUP 3: $1.2921 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.2833 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The bearish key day reversal Thursday was followed up with further
losses Friday that leave the pair looking heavy and bears focused on the 55-DMA.
Daily studies correcting from O/B add weight to the bearish case with bears now
looking for a close below $1.3004. Layers of resistance have accumulated with
bulls now needing a close above $1.3113 to ease bearish pressure and above
$1.3191 to shift focus back to $1.3259-78.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus On Y111.35-112.41 This Week
*RES 4: Y111.51 21-DMA 
*RES 3: Y111.47 55-DMA 
*RES 2: Y111.35 100-DMA 
*RES 1: Y111.05 High Aug 4
*PRICE: Y110.65 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.52 Hourly resistance Aug 3 now support 
*SUP 2: Y110.23 Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support 
*SUP 3: Y110.00 Hourly support Aug 4 
*SUP 4: Y109.84 Low Aug 3
*COMMENTARY: A double daily bottom around Y109.84 and support ahead of the
55-WMA (Y109.80) combined with daily studies looking to correct from O/S
provided the catalyst for a rally that eased bearish pressure Friday and sees
focus on Y111.35-112.41. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to hint at a shift
higher in focus with above Y112.87 to confirm. Bears need a close below Y110.52
to ease bullish pressure and below Y110.23 to shift focus back to Y109.84.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.47-99 Support Key
*RES 4: Y132.23 2016 High Jan 29 2016 
*RES 3: Y131.64 High Feb 4 2016 
*RES 2: Y131.40 2017 High Aug 2 
*RES 1: Y131.13 High Aug 4
*PRICE: Y130.67 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y130.40 Hourly support Aug 7 
*SUP 2: Y129.99 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y129.89 Low Aug 1 
*SUP 4: Y129.47 Low July 31
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Thursday again found support ahead of the 21-DMA with
bears needing a close below Y129.47 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at
a move back to Y127.44-128.02 and below the channel base (Y129.07) to confirm.
The Y131.40-132.23 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above
Y132.23 to target the bull channel top (Y136.32). The Bollinger top (Y131.31) is
the key concern for bulls & currently limits follow through.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8988-0.8920 Support Key
*RES 4: Gbp0.9171 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: Gbp0.9089 Bollinger Band top
*RES 2: Gbp0.9068 High Oct 13
*RES 1: Gbp0.9061 2017 High Aug 7
*PRICE: Gbp0.9053 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.9045 Hourly support Aug 7 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.9020 Hourly support Aug 7a 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8994 High July 21 now support 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8988 High Aug 2 now support
*COMMENTARY: The Gbp0.8922 support confirmed significance providing the platform
for an aggressive rally to fresh 2017 and 10mth highs that sees bulls initially
focused on Gbp0.9068. A close above this level is needed to target
Gbp0.9171-0.9270 where the bull channel top and 2016 highs are located. Bears
need a close below Gbp0.9020 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.8988 to shift
focus back to Gbp0.8922.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Look for Close Below $0.7838
*RES 4: $0.8015 - Hourly support Aug 1 now resistance 
*RES 3: $0.7998 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 
*RES 2: $0.7979 - High Aug 4 
*RES 1: $0.7949 - High Aug 7
*PRICE: $0.7917 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7899 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $0.7891 - Low Aug 4 
*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21 
*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support
*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure back on the $0.7838-0.7874 region bulls take
comfort in support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA on dips. Bears look for a close
below $0.7874 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and add weight to their case.
Overall below $0.7838 is needed to shift focus to $0.7710-0.7778. Bulls continue
to look for a close above $0.7998 to shift focus initial focus back to
$0.8044-65 where 2017 highs are located.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.061 Support Key
*RES 4: 94.103 - High July 27 
*RES 3: 94.082 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: 93.774 - High Aug 4 
*RES 1: 93.541 - High Aug 7
*PRICE: 93.357 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 93.302 - Low Aug 7
*SUP 2: 93.061 - Hourly support Aug 4a
*SUP 3: 92.679 - Low Aug 3
*SUP 4: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2
*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with hesitation ahead of
the recent 2017 lows & 200-WMA (92.398) less than ideal for bears. Immediate
bearish pressure has been eased with bulls now needing a close above 94.465 to
confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to 95.167-793 where the
55-DMA is noted. Support layers are accumulating with bears looking for a close
below 93.061 to shift pressure back to 2017 lows.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA
*RES 4: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14
*RES 3: 2.321 - High Aug 1
*RES 2: 2.314 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: 2.289 - High Aug 4
*PRICE: 2.258 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.247 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: 2.237 - Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.218 - Low Aug 3 
*SUP 4: 2.177 - High June 21 now support
*COMMENTARY: The rally Friday provided bulls breathing room but a close above
the 200-DMA is needed to confirm a return in focus to 2.237-396 where the daily
bear channel top (2.340) is noted. The 2.218-2.247 support region is now key.
Bears need a close below 2.237 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below 2.218
to reconfirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. The Bollinger base (2.212) is the key
concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below $47.86 
*RES 4: $51.11 - Low May 23 now resistance 
*RES 3: $50.63 - Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 2: $50.10 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 1: $49.67 - High Aug 7
*PRICE: $49.19 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $48.50 - Low Aug 4 
*SUP 2: $48.38 - Low Aug 1 
*SUP 3: $48.25 - Low July 27 
*SUP 4: $47.86 - Low July 26
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to $47.86-48.38 is a concern for
bears who now look for a close below the $47.86 to confirm an easing of bullish
pressure and below the 55-DMA ($46.95) to hint at a move back to $42.28 with
below $45.16 to confirm. Layers of resistance $50.10-51.19 remain key. Bulls
need a close above the 200-DMA ($51.19) to confirm a bullish bias and shift
immediate focus to May highs ($52.63).
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1243.8-1258.2 Support Key
*RES 4: $1280.8 - High June 14 
*RES 3: $1274.0 - High Aug 1 
*RES 2: $1267.2 - Hourly support Aug 3 & 4 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1264.4 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*PRICE: $1259.8 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1258.2 - Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 2: $1253.8 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 3: $1252.0 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1249.2 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from O/B and hesitation ahead of
the key $1280.8 resistance have taken their toll with a sell-off and bearish
close Friday that sees pressure on layers of support $1243.8-1258.2. Bears need
a close below $1243.8 to confirm a break of key supports and to see immediate
focus return to the 200-DMA ($1229.4). Bulls need a close above $1264.4 to gain
breathing room and above $1280.8 to target 2017 highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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