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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

29 September 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1810-62 Resistance Key
*RES 4: $1.1862 Low Sept 20 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1.1833 Low Sept 25 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.1816 55-DMA 
*RES 1: $1.1810 Hourly resistance Sept 27a
*PRICE: $1.1778 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1759 Hourly support Sept 28 
*SUP 2: $1.1709 Low Aug 18 
*SUP 3: $1.1661 Low Aug 17 
*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26
*COMMENTARY: Losses have defined the week with bears taking comfort in the pair
gaining traction below the 55-DMA and on layers of support $1.1583-1.1661. The
Bollinger base ($1.1749) is the key concern for bears and currently limits
follow through. Layers of resistance are adding to bearish confidence with bulls
needing a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $1.1862 to
shift focus higher.
     CABLE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA For Now
*RES 4: $1.3571 High Sept 25 
*RES 3: $1.3514 High Sept 26 
*RES 2: $1.3463 High Sept 27 
*RES 1: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29
*PRICE: $1.3411 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 
*SUP 2: $1.3328 High Sept 13 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.3314 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.3159 Hourly resistance Sept 8 now support
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 and 15mth highs lacked follow through Wednesday with the
correction seeing bearish focus now on the $1.3314-1.3343 support region. Bears
need a close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to
$1.3158. Bulls now need a close above $1.3463 to gain breathing room and above
$1.3514 to shift focus back to $1.3595-1.3657.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below 200-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure
*RES 4: Y113.72 Bollinger band top 
*RES 3: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y113.26 High Sept 27 
*RES 1: Y112.86 Hourly resistance Sept 28
*PRICE: Y112.63 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.25 Hourly support Sept 29 
*SUP 2: Y112.02 200-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y111.92 Hourly support Sept 26 
*SUP 4: Y111.48 Low Sept 25
*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through above Y112.85 has been a little lacking
which is a concern with daily studies at O/B levels, momentum divergence and the
Bollinger top capping. Bulls have shifted focus to tests of July highs with
above Y113.70 to add support to their case. Bears continue to look for a close
below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.48 to confirm a shift
in focus to key DMAs Y110.52-111.04.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA
*RES 4: Y134.25 High Sept 25
*RES 3: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25
*RES 2: Y133.01 Hourly support Sept 25 now resistance
*RES 1: Y132.89 High Sept 28
*PRICE: Y132.69 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.07 Low Sept 27 
*SUP 2: Y131.89 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y131.83 Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 4: Y131.74 Low Sept 26
*COMMENTARY: Repeated rejections ahead of the Y134.59 resistance took their toll
with a sell-off and bearish close Monday that saw pressure back on
Y130.47-131.89 where the bull channel base, 21 & 55-DMAs & 200-WMA are located.
Bears need a close below the channel base to add weight to the case for a test
of Y127.42-128.38 with below the 200-WMA to confirm. Bulls still need a close
above Y133.49 to shift focus back to Y134.25-59.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above Gbp0.8816 To Ease Bearish Pressure
*RES 4: Gbp0.8839 Hourly resistance Sept 22
*RES 3: Gbp0.8816 Hourly resistance Sept 25
*RES 2: Gbp0.8809 High Sept 28
*RES 1: Gbp0.8787 Hourly resistance Sept 28
*PRICE: Gbp0.8782 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8758 Hourly support Sept 27 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8746 Low Sept 27 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8741 Monthly Low July 14 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8719 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: As daily studies correct from O/S continued hesitation ahead of the
55-WMA (Gbp0.8711) and 200-DMA is a concern for bears and hints at a correction.
Bulls continue to look for a close above Gbp0.8816 to ease bearish pressure and
above Gbp0.8920 to shift initial focus back to 21 & 55-DMAs (Gbp0.8940-0.9011).
Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-WMA to shift focus to Gbp0.8523.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7907
*RES 4: $0.7939 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7907 - Hourly support Sept 22 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7883 - Hourly resistance Sept 27 
*RES 1: $0.7861 - High Sept 28
*PRICE: $0.7840 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7824 - Hourly support Sept 28 
*SUP 2: $0.7798 - Low Sept 28 
*SUP 3: $0.7781 - Low July 17 
*SUP 4: $0.7758 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The break and close below the daily bull channel base last week has
been followed up with consolidation below the 55-DMA and bears focused on
$0.7781 July 27 lows. The lack of follow through Thursday is less than ideal for
bears as daily studies approach O/S levels. In saying that, bulls still need a
close above $0.7907 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA ($0.7967) to
hint at a move back to 2017 highs with above $0.8036 confirming.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.724-93.031 Support Key
*RES 4: 94.145 - Monthly High Aug 16 
*RES 3: 93.762 - High Aug 18 
*RES 2: 93.666 - High Sept 28 
*RES 1: 93.328 - Hourly resistance Sept 28
*PRICE: 93.227 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 93.031 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 92.898 - Hourly support Sept 26
*SUP 3: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support
*SUP 4: 92.433 - Hourly support Sept 25
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the close above the 55-DMA Wednesday but
hesitation ahead of the 93.762 resistance with daily studies at O/B levels is
less than ideal. The 55-DMA is initial support with bears needing a close below
to ease bullish pressure and below 97.724 to shift focus back to 91.526-781.
Bulls look for a close above 93.762 to add support to the case for a test of the
94.145-476 region where Aug highs are situated.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 2.398 - Monthly High July 7 
*RES 3: 2.366 - High July 13 
*RES 2: 2.359 - High Sept 28 
*RES 1: 2.326 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: 2.316 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.301 - Hourly support Sept 27 & 28 
*SUP 2: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a 
*SUP 3: 2.266 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 4: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Sept lows resulted in a pop above the 200-DMA
although the lack of follow through is a concern for bulls when combined with
the proximity of the Bollinger top (2.357), correcting O/B studies and momentum
divergence increasing the risk of a correction. The 2.284 support is key today
with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to 2.208-2.214. Bulls now
need a close above 2.366 to retain focus on 2.437.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (X17) Bearish Key Day Reversal 
*RES 4: $53.50 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: $52.86 - High Sept 28 
*RES 2: $52.71 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: $52.27 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*PRICE: $51.60 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $51.22 - Low Sept 25 
*SUP 2: $50.95 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 3: $50.29 - Low Sept 22 
*SUP 4: $50.07 - Low Sept 21
*COMMENTARY: The bearish key day reversal Thursday provides bears hope but a
close below the 200-DMA remains need to shift focus back to $50.07-29 where the
21-DMA ($50.08) is located. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish
case. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a
close above $52.27 to gain breathing room and above $52.86 to retain focus on
the bull channel top.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Overall Focus On $1236.9-1250.0
*RES 4: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 
*RES 3: $1304.6 - Alternating daily support/resistance 
*RES 2: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 
*RES 1: $1289.5 - Alternating daily support/resistance, 55-DMA
*PRICE: $1285.0 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1281.8 - Hourly support Sept 28 
*SUP 2: $1277.6 - Low Sept 28 
*SUP 3: $1275.0 - Low Aug 25 
*SUP 4: $1271.6 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in consolidation below the 55-DMA although the
bounce from the Thurs lows combined with studies looking to correct from O/S is
less than ideal. Bulls now need a close above $1296.4 to gain breathing room and
above $1320.0 to shift focus higher. While $1296.4 caps bears remain focused on
$1265.3-1275.0 where the 100-DMA is noted. Below $1265.3 is needed to confirm
focus on $1236.9-1250.0 where the 200-DMA and bull channel base are situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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