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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
12 October 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On Bear Channel Top
*RES 4: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 3: $1.2019 High Sept 20
*RES 2: $1.1891 Hourly support Sept 21 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1902 Daily Bear channel top
*PRICE: $1.1874 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1831 Hourly resistance Oct 11 now support
*SUP 2: $1.1795 Hourly support Oct 10
*SUP 3: $1.1756 Hourly resistance Oct 9 now support
*SUP 4: $1.1739 Hourly support Oct 10
*COMMENTARY: The pair remains bid with the break of the $1.1862 resistance and
close above 21 & 55-DMAs ($1.1834-42) hinting at a move back to $1.2019-92 and
above the bear channel top to confirm. Layers of support are building with bears
needing a close below $1.1831 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below
$1.1795 to shift focus back to the $1.1583-1.1661 region. Daily studies are well
placed for a fresh leg higher.
CABLE TECHS: Bullish Focus Shifts To 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29
*RES 3: $1.3354 21-DMA
*RES 2: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.3297 Hourly resistance Oct 2
*PRICE: $1.3257 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3235 Hourly resistance Oct 11 now support
*SUP 2: $1.3203 Hourly support Oct 11
*SUP 3: $1.3172 Hourly support Oct 10
*SUP 4: $1.3139 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back to the 100-DMA ($1.3024) has
received support from correcting O/S daily studies with bulls now focused on
$1.3343-54 where the 21-DMA is located. Correcting O/S studies add support to
the bullish case. Layers of support continue to build with bears needing a close
below $1.3172 to gain breathing room and below $1.3124 to confirm a break below
the 55-DMA and return focus to $1.2995-1.3024.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y112.89
*RES 4: Y113.44 High Oct 6
*RES 3: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance
*RES 2: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6
*RES 1: Y112.58 High Oct 11
*PRICE: Y112.35 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.20 21-DMA
*SUP 2: Y111.82 200-DMA
*SUP 3: Y111.48 Low Sept 25
*SUP 4: Y111.11 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bounce from 21 & 200-DMAs Tuesday
with pressure having returned to these supports. Bears now focus on the 200-DMA
with a close below needed to pressure Y111.48 and below this level to shift
focus to 55 (Y110.68) & 100 (111.11) DMAs. Below the 55-DMA hints at a move back
to 2017 lows with below Y109.52 to confirm. Bulls look for a close above Y112.89
to ease pressure on key supports and initially target Y113.44-70.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Close Above Y133.49 Targets Y134.25-59
*RES 4: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015
*RES 3: Y134.41 2017 High Sept 22
*RES 2: Y134.25 High Sept 25
*RES 1: Y133.49 Hourly resistance Sept 25 & Oct 12
*PRICE: Y133.38 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.23 Hourly support Oct 12
*SUP 2: Y133.03 Hourly resistance Oct 11 now support
*SUP 3: Y132.78 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Y132.44 Low Oct 11
*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the key Y133.49 resistance with bulls
needing a close above to shift focus to Y134.25-59 where 2017 and monthly highs
are situated. Daily studies have room to move before O/B becomes an issue.
Initial support is noted at Y133.23 but bears look for a close below Y133.03 to
ease bullish pressure and hint at a move back to Y131.74 with below Y132.44 to
confirm.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: EURO-STERLING TECHS: Close Below Gbp0.8948 To Ease
Bullish Pressure
*RES 4: Gbp0.9045 High Sept 14
*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 55-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8992 High Oct 6
*RES 1: Gbp0.8972 Hourly resistance Oct 11
*PRICE: Gbp0.8957 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8948 Hourly resistance Oct 11 now support
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8925 Low Oct 10
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8906 Low Oct 9
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8886 High Sept 22 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on the close above Gbp0.8920 with
Gbp0.8992-0.9045 resistance key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.9045 to confirm a
break of the 55-DMA, hint at a move back to Gbp0.8213-0.9306 and above Gbp0.9107
to confirm. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8948 to gain breathing room
and below the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8860) to end bearish hopes and target Gbp0.8717-57.
AUSSIE TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 100-DMA
*RES 4: $0.7918 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7918 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7880 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7840 - Hourly resistance Oct 5
*PRICE: $0.7817 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11
*SUP 2: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6
*SUP 3: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support
*SUP 4: $0.7672 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The pair is currently gaining traction above the 100-DMA ($0.7794)
with bulls needing a close above $0.7809 to add support to the case for a bounce
back to 21 & 55-DMAs ($0.7880-0.7918). Correcting O/S studies add support to the
case for a correction. Layers of support are building with bears now needing a
close below $0.7765 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $0.7712 to focus
on the 200-DMA ($0.7674).
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 92.724 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: 93.623 - Hourly support Oct 9 now resistance
*RES 3: 93.472 - Hourly resistance Oct 10a
*RES 2: 93.369 - High Oct 11
*RES 1: 93.121 - Hourly resistance Oct 11
*PRICE: 92.841 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support
*SUP 2: 92.524 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: 91.781 - Low Sept 22
*SUP 4: 91.526 - Low Sept 20
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of the
100-DMA has left the index looking heavy and pressuring 92.724 as it flirts with
21 (92.908) & 55 (92.900) DMAs. Below 92.724 remains needed to confirm breaks of
DMAs and to shift overall focus to 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are
accumulating with bulls needing a close above 93.369 to gain breathing room and
above 94.476 to shift focus to 95.167-464.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key
*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11
*RES 3: 2.402 - High Oct 6
*RES 2: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6
*RES 1: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11
*PRICE: 2.341 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.330 - Hourly support Oct 10
*SUP 2: 2.319 - Low Oct 5 & 10, 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Sept 29
*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a
*COMMENTARY: Dips attracted bids last week resulting in fresh 7mth highs
although the lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of 2.437 was
less than ideal. Bulls look for a close above 2.372 to gain breathing room and
above 2.437 to return overall focus to 2017 highs. Bears still need a close
below 2.319 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.284 to shift focus to
2.208-2.245 where 55 (2.232) & 100 (2.236) DMAs are located.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Dominate While 200-DMA Supports
*RES 4: $53.11 - Monthly High Sept 28
*RES 3: $52.62 - Bollinger band top
*RES 2: $52.08 - High Sept 29
*RES 1: $51.69 - High Oct 11
*PRICE: $51.32 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $50.87 - 200-DMA
*SUP 2: $50.13 - High Oct 9 now support
*SUP 3: $49.74 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: $49.44 - Low Oct 6
*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading saw Z17 recover from below the 55-DMA to pressure
$52.08. Bulls continue to look for a close above $52.08 to return immediate
focus to $53.11 and overall focus to $53.73-54.35 where the bull channel top is
located. Layers of support are building and correcting O/S studies supporting.
Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below
$49.44 to target $48.05-64 where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are found.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1296.4
*RES 4: $1320.0 - High Sept 18
*RES 3: $1313.6 - High Sept 26
*RES 2: $1296.4 - High Sept 27
*RES 1: $1294.5 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: $1292.7 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1284.5 - Low Oct 11
*SUP 2: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support
*SUP 3: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6
*SUP 4: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support
*COMMENTARY: Having previously been capped on approach to the 21 & 55-DMAs and
$1296.4 bulls take comfort in pressure returning to this region. Bulls need a
close above $1296.4 to shift initial focus back to $1313.6-1320.0. Initial
support is noted at $1284.5 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing
room and below $1277.6 to return focus to $1242.5-1254.9 where the bull channel
base and 200-DMA are situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.