MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1795 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.1886 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: $1.1880 High Oct 12 

*RES 1: $1.1849 Hourly resistance Oct 13

*PRICE: $1.1807 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1795 Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 2: $1.1756 Hourly resistance Oct 9 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1739 Hourly support Oct 10 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $1.1862 resistance has so far lacked follow

through with the pair capped around the daily bear channel top Thursday. The

$1.1795 support remains key. Bears continue to look for a close below $1.1795 to

shift focus back to the $1.1583-1.1661 region. While $1.1795 supports bulls look

for a close above the bear channel top to shift focus to $1.2033-92 where 2017

highs are noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Focused On $1.3335-43

*RES 4: $1.3463 High Sept 27 

*RES 3: $1.3430 Hourly resistance Sept 29 

*RES 2: $1.3343 Low Sept 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3335 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3289 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3240 Hourly support Oct 12 

*SUP 2: $1.3179 Hourly resistance Oct 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3121 Low Oct 12 

*SUP 4: $1.3074 Hourly support Oct 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls remain focused on $1.3335-41 after the dip below the 55-DMA

($1.3143) was aggressively reversed last week. Bulls need a close above $1.3343

to end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to $1.3461-1.3514 and overall

focus to $1.3656-1.3708 where 2017 highs and the bull channel top are situated.

Bears need a close below $1.3240 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.3121 to

focus on $1.2995-1.3034.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.48-69 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 2: Y112.58 High Oct 11 

*RES 1: Y112.32 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y111.92 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.69 Low Oct 13 

*SUP 2: Y111.48 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 3: Y111.12 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y110.73 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bounce from 21 & 200-DMAs Tuesday

resulting in a dip below the 200-DMA (Y111.78). Bears now need a close below

Y111.48 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and focus on 55 (Y110.73) & 100

(111.12) DMAs. Below the 55-DMA hints at a move back to 2017 lows with below

Y109.52 to confirm. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and above Y112.89 to shift immediate focus back to Y113.44-70.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Focused On Y131.74

*RES 4: Y133.27 Hourly resistance Oct 12

*RES 3: Y132.95 Hourly resistance Oct 13

*RES 2: Y132.72 Hourly support Oct 13

*RES 1: Y132.44 Hourly support Oct 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.13 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.97 Hourly support Oct 9 

*SUP 2: Y131.74 Low Sept 26 

*SUP 3: Y131.13 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Y133.49 confirmed significance having capped Thursday with the

sell-off now seeing bears focused on Y131.74. Bears look for a close below this

level to pressure the 55-DMA (Y131.13). Bulls still need a close above Y132.95

to gain breathing room and above Y133.49 to shift focus to Y134.25-59 where 2017

and monthly highs are situated. Daily studies have corrected back to neutral

levels and are giving away few clues at present.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.9010 55-DMA

*RES 3: Gbp0.8987 Hourly support Oct 12 now resistance

*RES 2: Gbp0.8948 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: Gbp0.8931 Hourly resistance Oct 13

*PRICE: Gbp0.8881 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8872 Low Oct 13 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8863 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8801 Low Oct 2 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8741 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection above the 55-DMA last week left the pair looking

heavy with immediate pressure back on the 21-DMA. Bears continue to look for a

close below the 21-DMA to end bullish hopes and target Gbp0.8717-57. Bulls still

need a close above Gbp0.8948 to gain breathing room and above Gbp0.8987 to

return focus to Gbp0.9010-44 where the 55-DMA is noted. Correcting O/B studies

add weight to the bearish case.

     AUSSIE TECHS: 55-DMA Resistance Key

*RES 4: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 3: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 2: $0.7914 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7907 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7875 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7849 - Hourly breakout level 

*SUP 2: $0.7803 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 4: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Having gained traction above the 100-DMA Thursday bulls capitalised

to end the week with a close above the 21-DMA ($0.7868) that sees focus on the

55-DMA. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and initially

target $0.7986 with overall focus returning to 2017 highs. Bears now need a

close below $0.7849 to ease pressure on the 55-DMA and below the 100-DMA to

shift focus back to $0.7680-0.7733.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.724 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 93.623 - Hourly support Oct 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: 93.472 - Hourly resistance Oct 10a 

*RES 2: 93.369 - High Oct 11 

*RES 1: 93.239 - High Oct 13

*PRICE: 93.179 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 92.924 - Hourly support Oct 13

*SUP 2: 92.881 - Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support

*SUP 3: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support

*SUP 4: 92.649 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of the 100-DMA resulted in dips below the

21 (93.023) & 55 (92.906) DMAs only to find support ahead of the key 92.724

level. Below 92.724 remains needed to confirm breaks of DMAs and to shift

overall focus to 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls

needing a close above 93.369 to gain breathing room and above 94.476 to shift

focus to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus on 2.208-2.245

*RES 4: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11 

*RES 3: 2.334 - High Oct 13 

*RES 2: 2.315 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.302 - Hourly resistance Oct 13

*PRICE: 2.2894 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.236 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.231 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.208 - Low Sept 18

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with a break and close below

the 200 & 21 (2.294) DMAs and the key 2.284 support that now sees immediate

pressure having shifted to 2.208-2.245 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Correcting

O/B studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above the

200-DMA to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 2.402 to return initial

focus to 2.437.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On $53.11-54.49 

*RES 4: $54.49 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $53.73 - Low Apr 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: $53.11 - Monthly High Sept 28 

*RES 1: $52.78 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $52.15 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $52.01 - Hourly support Oct 16 

*SUP 2: $51.62 - Hourly support Oct 13 

*SUP 3: $51.27 - Hourly support Oct 13a 

*SUP 4: $50.82 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: A volatile week resulted in a bullish close with the break of

$52.08 adding support to the bullish case for a test of the $53.11-54.49 region

where monthly highs and the bull channel top are located. Daily studies have

room to move before O/B is an issue. Layers of support are building with bears

needing a close below $51.62 to ease bullish pressure and shift immediate focus

back to $49.44-82 where the 55-DMA is noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1277.6-1289.6 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 3: $1315.7 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 

*RES 1: $1314.2 - Hourly resistance Oct 16

*PRICE: $1302.1 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1298.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 13 now support 

*SUP 2: $1289.6 - Low Oct 12 

*SUP 3: $1284.5 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 4: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of $1296.4 gained momentum Friday with bulls now

targeting $1313.6-1320.0. A close above $1320.0 is needed to shift focus to

$1357.5 Sept highs. Support layers are building with bears now needing a close

below $1289.6 to ease bullish pressure and below $1277.6 to shift focus back to

$1243.7-1260.5 where the 200-DMA ($1256.2) and bull channel base are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]