MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2033 High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $1.1923 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1.1880 High Oct 12 

*RES 1: $1.1858 High Oct 19

*PRICE: $1.1819 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1769 Hourly support Oct 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1731 Low Oct 18 

*SUP 3: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1669 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Downside follow through has been lacking the past two days as

support emerges on dips back to the 200-WMA ($1.1692). The recovery from the

week's lows so far has stalled ahead of the daily bear channel top ($1.1853) and

key $1.1880 resistance. Bulls need a close above $1.1880 to shift focus to

$1.2033. Bears now need a close below $1.1731 to reconfirm focus on

$1.1583-1.1669.

     CABLE TECHS: Focus Shifts To $1.2995-1.3041

*RES 4: $1.3291 Hourly resistance Oct 17 

*RES 3: $1.3228 High Oct 19 

*RES 2: $1.3209 Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 1: $1.3145 Hourly resistance Oct 20 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3109 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3041 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3028 Low Oct 6 

*SUP 3: $1.3018 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from recent 21-DMA topside failures has now broken

below the 55-DMA ($1.3144) and key $1.3121 support. Bears look for a close below

$1.3121 to add weight to the case for a move that now sees immediate focus on

$1.2995-1.3141 where the 100-DMA and Bollinger base are located. Bulls now need

a close above $1.3161 to gain breathing room and above $1.3341 to end bearish

hopes.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y113.70

*RES 4: Y114.49 Monthly High July 11 

*RES 3: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y113.44 High Oct 6 

*RES 1: Y113.20 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y113.15 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.74 Hourly resistance Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.30 Low Oct 19 

*SUP 3: Y112.04 Hourly support Oct 17 

*SUP 4: Y111.65 Low Oct 16

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging below the 21-DMA (Y112.47)

with support previously emerging on dips below the 200-DMA (Y111.73). Bears now

need a close below Y112.30 to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.48 to shift

focus to 55 & 100-DMAs. The Bollinger band (Y113.20) top is currently capping

but daily studies remain well placed for gains. The Y113.70 resistance remains

key with bulls looking for a close above to pressure 2017 highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y132.91-133.44 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y134.59 Monthly High Dec 4 2015

*RES 3: Y134.41 2017 High Sept 22

*RES 2: Y134.25 High Sept 25

*RES 1: Y133.83 Hourly resistance Oct 20

*PRICE: Y133.68 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.44 Hourly resistance Oct 20 now support 

*SUP 2: Y132.91 Hourly support Oct 19 

*SUP 3: Y132.44 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: Y131.95 Hourly support Oct 18

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from last week's Y133.49 topside failure resulted in a

break of Y131.74 but follow through was lacking. The rally Wednesday managed a

close above the 21-DMA with gains continuing and focus now having shifted to

Y134.25-59 where 2017 and monthly highs are situated. Layers of support are

building with bears needing a close below Y133.44 to gain breathing room and

below Y132.91 to hint at a deeper sell-off targeting Y131.65.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.9048

*RES 4: Gbp0.9107 Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.9038 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: Gbp0.9033 High Oct 12

*PRICE: Gbp0.9016 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8990 Hourly support Oct 19 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8967 Hourly support Oct 19a 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8958 Hourly breakout level Oct 19 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8931 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8889) bears failed to manage

the close below needed to confirm focus on Gbp0.8728-57. The recovery from the

week's lows sees the pair trading above the daily bear channel top and 55-DMA

(Gbp0.9009). Bulls still need a close above Gbp0.9048 to end bearish hopes and

shift focus to Gbp0.9107-0.9202. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.8990 to ease

bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8924 to focus on Gbp0.8854.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7809 & 55-DMA Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 3: $0.7942 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $0.7907 - Low Sept 22 now resistance, 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7884 - High Oct 19

*PRICE: $0.7843 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7820 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7809 - High Oct 11 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7765 - Low Oct 11 

*SUP 4: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: With bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to end bearish

hopes and initially target $0.7986, bears take comfort in the pair remaining

capped ahead of the 55-DMA so far this week. Bears now look for a close below

$0.7809 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and shift focus back to $0.7688-0.7733

where the 200-DMA and Oct lows are located. Overall a close below the 200-DMA

hints at a move initially targeting $0.7513.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.724 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 93.844 - High Oct 9 

*RES 3: 93.797 - High Oct 18 

*RES 2: 93.658 - Hourly support Oct 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: 93.550 - High Oct 19

*PRICE: 93.477 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.055 - Low Oct 19

*SUP 2: 92.926 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 92.987 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 92.724 - High Sept 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 94.189-476 resistance region is less than

ideal for bulls with a close above 93.797 needed to add support to their case.

Daily studies are well placed for gains. The 92.724-926 support region remains

key. Bears need a close below 97.724 to confirm breaks of the 55-DMA and daily

bull channel base and to shift focus to 91.011-781 where 2017 lows are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.278 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: 2.353 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.332 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 3: 2.278 - Low Oct 16 

*SUP 4: 2.245 - High Sept 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: The yield suffered a setback following the failure to gain traction

above 21 (2.312) & 200 (2.313) DMAs but failure to take out the 2.278 support

has seen bulls return pressure to resistance layers. While 2.278 supports bulls

retain the upper hand and focus on layers of resistance 2.372-437. Above 2.437

remains needed to shift initial focus to 2.544-558. Bears need a close below

2.278 to shift focus back to 2.208-245 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

NYMEX WTI TEHCS: (Z17) $51.28 Support Now Key 

*RES 4: $52.99 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $52.65 - High Oct 16 

*RES 2: $52.39 - Hourly resistance Oct 19 

*RES 1: $51.92 - Low Oct 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $51.54 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $51.42 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $51.28 - Low Oct 19 

*SUP 3: $50.71 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $50.48 - Low Oct 12

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of the $52.65-53.11 region is less than

ideal for bulls who need a close above to shift focus to $53.73-55.03 where the

bull channel top ($54.77) is located. The $51.28 support is now key with bears

needing a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus

back to $49.44-50.13 where the 55-DMA is noted ($49.96). A close below the

200-DMA would add weight to the bearish case.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 3: $1298.3 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: $1297.0 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1291.1 - Hourly resistance Oct 19

*PRICE: $1283.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1275.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6 

*SUP 3: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1260.6 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 100-DMA has so far failed to produce the close

below needed to see bears confirm focus on tests of $1243.4-1260.1 where the

daily bull channel base ($1245.9) and 200-DMA ($1257.9) are noted. Bulls now

look for a close above $1291.1to ease immediate bearish pressure and above

$1306.0 to pressure $1313.6-1320.0, Daily studies remain well placed for further

losses.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]