MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Back On $1.1774-1.1813

*RES 4: $1.2007 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 2: $1.1920 High Nov 28

*RES 1: $1.1863 Hourly support Nov 28 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1852 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1813 Hourly support Nov 23 

*SUP 2: $1.1787 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.1778 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1735 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bull channel top sees the pair

trading back below $1.1880 and immediate pressure shift to $1.1774-1.1813 where

the daily bull channel base, 55 & 100-DMAs are found. Overall bears now need a

close below $1.1690 to target $1.1553 Nov 7 lows. Bulls look for a close above

$1.1920 to gain breathing room and above $1.1961 to target the channel top once

more.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Initially Focused On $1.3461

*RES 4: $1.3514 High Sept 26 

*RES 3: $1.3470 LT Weekly Bear channel top 

*RES 2: $1.3461 High Sept 27 now support 

*RES 1: $1.3388 High Nov 28

*PRICE: $1.3361 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3333 Hourly resistance Nov 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3264 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3212 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3151 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Tuesday was aggressively reversed from ahead of the

21-DMA resulting in fresh 7 week highs and retaining initial bullish focus on

$1.3461 for now. Layers of support have accumulated with bears now needing a

close below $1.3333 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA still needed to

hint at a move back to $1.2995-1.3037 with below the 100-DMA ($1.3151)

confirming.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above 200-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y112.65 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y112.18 Hourly resistance Nov 22 

*RES 2: Y111.87 Low Nov 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y111.67 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y111.47 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.84 Hourly support Nov 24 

*SUP 2: Y110.44 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: Y110.23 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.52 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Bearish confidence grew with the 200-DMA capping to start the new

week and focus on the 100-WMA. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to confirm

focus on tests of Y107.31 2017 lows. O/S studies and the Bollinger band base

(Y110.67) remain key concerns for bears. Bulls look for a close above the

200-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA (Y112.81) to shift overall

focus back to tests of Y114.72 with above Y113.33 confirming.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Capping, Y133.23 Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y133.49 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y133.23 High Nov 24

*RES 2: Y132.91 Hourly resistance Nov 27

*RES 1: Y132.64 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y132.10 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.64 Hourly support Nov 23 

*SUP 2: Y131.41 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y131.21 Low Nov 23 

*SUP 4: Y130.59 Low Sept 15

*COMMENTARY: Friday's gains have been erased with closes below 21 & 55-DMAs

easing renewed bullish pressure and shifting focus back to the key Y131.21-41

region where the 100-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below Y131.21 to end

bullish hopes and shift overall focus back to Y127.54 with below Y130.59 to add

weight to their case. Bulls need a close above Y133.23 to shift focus back to

Y133.88-134.50.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8837 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8960 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8934 Hourly resistance Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8892 Hourly support Nov 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8868 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8837 Low Nov 13 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8791 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8726 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8717 Low June 16

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through took its toll with the pop above

the channel top and 100-DMA (Gbp0.8955) aggressively reversed and pressure back

on the Gbp0.8837 support. Bears now need a close below this level to shift focus

back to the key Gbp0.8717-91 region where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are situated.

Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8934 to return focus to the bear channel top

and above Gbp0.8981 to confirm a break and initially pressure Gbp0.9022-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7519 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7758 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 2: $0.7693 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7644 - High Nov 28

*PRICE: $0.7595 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7552 - Low Nov 22 

*SUP 2: $0.7532 - Low Nov 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7519 - Low June 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies and a lack of follow through below the Bollinger

base ($0.7539) resulted in a break of $0.7609 last week that saw pressure on the

21-DMA. Topside follow through above the 21-DMA ($0.7625) was lacking with bulls

now needing a close above $0.7644 to confirm breaks of the channel top and

21-DMA, shifting immediate focus to the 200-DMA and overall focus to

$0.7693-0.7768. Bears need a close below $0.7519 to reconfirm the bearish bias.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 94.178 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 3: 93.962 - High Nov 22 

*RES 2: 93.557 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 93.432 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: 93.202 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.827 - Low Nov 28

*SUP 2: 92.496 - Low Nov 27

*SUP 3: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*SUP 4: 91.526 - Low Oct 19

*COMMENTARY: Closes below the 55-DMA & 100-DMA resulted in a marginal break of

92.724 but follow through has been lacking. Bulls take comfort in the correction

back towards the 55-DMA but need a close above to shift initial focus to

94.009-165 where the 21-DMA (94.009) is located. While the 55-DMA caps bears

remain focused on 91.011-781 where 2017 lows are situated. Correcting O/S

studies are the key concern for bears and increase correction risk.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, 200-DMA Supporting

*RES 4: 2.386 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 3: 2.379 - High Nov 16 

*RES 2: 2.362 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 2.351 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.328 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.310 - Low Nov 28 

*SUP 2: 2.305 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.282 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 21-DMA capping to start the new week and

pressure remaining on the key 2.273-3.305 support region where 100 & 200-DMAs

are noted. Bears need a close below 2.273 to confirm breaks and shift immediate

focus to 2.207. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease immediate

bearish pressure and above 2.386 hint at a move back to 2.477 with above 2.419

confirming.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) Below 21-DMA To Target Deeper Correction 

*RES 4: $59.13 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $59.05 - 2017 High Nov 24 

*RES 2: $58.37 - Hourly resistance Nov 27 

*RES 1: $58.11 - High Nov 28

*PRICE: $57.67 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $57.42 - Low Nov 28 

*SUP 2: $57.22 - High Nov 21 now support 

*SUP 3: $56.88 - Hourly support 21 Nov 

*SUP 4: $56.70 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Monday negated Friday's gains with focus now on the

$56.70-57.22 support region where the 21-DMA is located. Bears need a close

below the 21-DMA to shift immediate focus to $55.00-75 and overall focus back to

$53.06-96 where the 55-DMA ($53.48) and bull channel base ($53.75) reside. The

$58.37 resistance remains key today with bulls needing a close above to pressure

2017 highs once more.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 3: $1313.6 - High Sept 26 

*RES 2: $1306.0 - High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $1299.1 - High Nov 27

*PRICE: $1295.7 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1285.8 - Low Nov 24, 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1282.7 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1279.0 - Low Nov 22 

*SUP 4: $1274.9 - Low Nov 20

*COMMENTARY: With key DMAs clustered $1282.7-1285.8 bulls remain focused on the

$1306.0-1320.0 region while they continue to support. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to $1260.2-1266.6

where the bull channel base and 200-DMA are situated. Bulls now need a close

above $1299.1 to add support to their case. Above $1320.0 targets $1357.5 2017

highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]