MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1816-84 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.1848 High Dec 6

*RES 2: $1.1816 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1783 Hourly support Dec 11 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1770 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1758 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1621 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week although the lack of follow through on the

break of the 55-DMA was less than ideal with the pair bouncing from ahead of

$1.1690-1.1713. Below $1.1690 remains needed to confirm initial focus on $1.1552

Nov lows. Consolidation below the 21-DMA ($1.1816) provides bears confidence

with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $1.1884 to

shift focus back to $1.1940-61.

     CABLE TECHS: Pressuring 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 3: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 2: $1.3432 High Dec 11 

*RES 1: $1.3374 Hourly resistance Dec 11

*PRICE: $1.3337 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3318 Low Dec 7 

*SUP 2: $1.3254 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3188 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3175 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The pair is looking heavy once more as it flirts with the 21-DMA

($1.3337). Bears look for a close below $1.3318 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

and shift focus to $1.3175-1.3254 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base

off March lows are situated. Bulls now need a close above $1.3432 to ease

pressure on support layers and return focus to $1.3549-1.3656 where monthly and

2017 highs are located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On Y114.07-72

*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 2: Y113.94 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: Y113.68 High Dec 11

*PRICE: Y113.49 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.24 Low Dec 11 

*SUP 2: Y113.04 Hourly support Dec 7 

*SUP 3: Y112.60 Daily Bull channel base (Off Nov 28 low) 

*SUP 4: Y112.57 Hourly support Dec 7a

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from the channel base confirmed significance last week

with the pair having broken Y113.33. Bulls initially target Y114.07-72 where Nov

monthly highs are noted. Bears continue to look for a close below Y113.04 to

gain breathing room and below Y112.57 to add weight to the case for a correction

back to Y110.83-111.65 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. The

Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls at present.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Retain Focus on 2017 High

*RES 4: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 2: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 1: Y133.88 High Dec 11

*PRICE: Y133.58 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.34 Hourly support Dec 8 

*SUP 2: Y132.98 Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 

*SUP 3: Y132.58 Hourly support Dec 7 

*SUP 4: Y132.24 Low Dec 6

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on a close below 21 & 55 (Y132.70-84)

DMAs with the pair bouncing ahead of the bull channel base (Y132.02) & 100-DMA

(Y131.77) DMAs last week. Bears now need a close below Y133.34 to ease bullish

pressure and below Y132.98 to shift initial focus back to Y131.71-132.24 where

the 100-DMA and bull channel base are situated. While Y133.34 supports immediate

focus remains on 2017 highs with a close above Y133.88 to add to confidence.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rejected Below 55-WMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8912 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8870 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8859 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8820 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8802 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8773 Hourly support Dec 11a 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: The break of the Gbp0.8717 support Friday lacked follow through

with the pair bouncing from below the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8734). The close above the

200-DMA Monday eased bearish pressure and sees focus back on the 55-DMA today.

Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8912-81

where the bear channel top and 100-DMA are noted. Bears now look for a close

below Gbp0.8773 to return pressure to the Gbp0.8690 6mth low from last week.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7569-0.7615 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7615 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 3: $0.7598 - Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7569 - Hourly resistance Dec 7

*RES 1: $0.7555 - Hourly resistance Dec 7a

*PRICE: $0.7533 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7500 - Low Dec 8 

*SUP 2: $0.7474 - LT Bull channel base (Jan 20 2016 low) 

*SUP 3: $0.7410 - Low June 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7365 - Low May 12

*COMMENTARY: Having closed below $0.7519 last week confirmed immediate bearish

focus on the LT bull channel base. A close below the channel base sees bears

targeting $0.7326-65 where the MT bear channel base is noted. In saying that,

the $0.7569 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above to ease bearish

pressure with a close above the bear channel top to shift initial focus back to

$0.7653-0.7768 where 55 ($0.7690) & 200 ($0.7689) DMAs are situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 94.165

*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 94.307 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 94.165 - High Nov 21

*PRICE: 93.944 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.666 - Low Dec 11

*SUP 2: 93.488 - High Dec 5 now support

*SUP 3: 93.171 - Low Dec 6

*SUP 4: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to key DMAs last week saw a close above the

55-DMA (93.761) confirming an easing of bearish pressure and seeing immediate

focus on 94.165. Bulls look for a close above this level to confirm focus on

95.167-464 where monthly highs are located. Bears need a close below 93.488 to

ease bullish pressure and below 93.035 to shift pressure back to the 92.496-604

region where Nov lows are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.437 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 2: 2.424 - High Dec 1 

*RES 1: 2.395 - High Dec 5

*PRICE: 2.381 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.376 - Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.351 - Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.303 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.287 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield found support last week ahead of the 200-DMA and key

2.273-2.303 support region where the 100-DMA and 21-WMA are also noted. The

close above Wednesday's high (2.363) eased bearish pressure and sees focus back

on the 2.437 resistance. Bulls need a close above this level to return pressure

to 2.477 Oct highs with a close above then targeting 2017 highs. Bears need a

close below 2.351 to pressure the 200-DMA.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (F18) Bears Need Close Below $56.91 

*RES 4: $60.62 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $59.10 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $59.05 - 2017 High Nov 24 

*RES 1: $58.40 - Hourly resistance Dec 1

*PRICE: $58.24 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $57.62 - Hourly support Dec 11 

*SUP 2: $57.37 - Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 

*SUP 3: $56.91 - Low Dec 11 

*SUP 4: $56.54 - Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the closes below the 21-DMA ($57.19)

with the recovery seeing bulls regain the upper hand and focus back on

$59.05-60.62 where 2017 highs and the daily bull channel top are situated.

Layers of support have built up, adding to bullish confidence. Bears now need a

close below $59.91 to ease bullish pressure and produce a correction back to the

key $54.66-55.75 region where 55-DMA and channel base are found.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 2017 Low

*RES 4: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 3: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1252.4 - High Dec 8

*PRICE: $1244.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1227.8 - Low July 17 

*SUP 2: $1214.0 - Low July 12 

*SUP 3: $1210.5 - Daily Bear channel base (Oct 6 Low) 

*SUP 4: $1204.7 - Monthly Low July 10

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on $1243.4 took its toll with a close below shifting

initial focus to $1180.6-1210.5 where the bear channel base and monthly lows are

situated. O/S studies and Bollinger base ($1241.8) are key concerns for bears.

Bulls look for a close above $1252.4 to ease immediate bearish pressure and

above $1269.9 to shift focus back to $1274.8-1286.4 where DMAs and bear channel

top are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]