MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below $1.1690 Targets Nov Lows

*RES 4: $1.1848 High Dec 6

*RES 3: $1.1813 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1793 High Dec 12

*RES 1: $1.1764 Hourly support Dec 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1754 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 2: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1621 Low Nov 10 

*SUP 4: $1.1554 Monthly Low Nov 7

*COMMENTARY: With the 21-DMA having capped since Thursday's close below the pair

remains heavy with immediate focus on $1.1690. Below $1.1690 remains needed to

confirm initial focus on $1.1552 Nov lows. Layers of resistance are building and

weighing with bulls needing a close above $1.1764 to gain breathing room. A

close above the 21-DMA is needed to hint at a correction with above $1.1884 to

shift focus back to $1.1940-61.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.3180-1.3252 While $1.3374 Caps

*RES 4: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 3: $1.3432 High Dec 11 

*RES 2: $1.3374 Hourly resistance Dec 11 

*RES 1: $1.3343 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3322 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3302 Low Dec 12 

*SUP 2: $1.3252 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3190 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3180 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy having closed below the 21-DMA with focus

having shifted to $1.3180-1.3252 where the bull channel base, 55 & 100-DMAs are

located. Below the bull channel base sees bears targeting $1.2974-1.3037 where

the 200-DMA is noted. Bulls now need a close above $1.3374 to ease renewed

bearish pressure and above $1.3432 to return focus to $1.3549-1.3656 where

monthly and 2017 highs are located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On Y114.07-72

*RES 4: Y115.62 High Jan 19 

*RES 3: Y114.72 High Nov 6, LT TL off 2015 High 

*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 1: Y113.96 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y113.31 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.04 Hourly support Dec 7 

*SUP 2: Y112.77 Daily Bull channel base (Off Nov 28 low) 

*SUP 3: Y112.57 Hourly support Dec 7a 

*SUP 4: Y112.33 Hourly resistance Dec 7a now support

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from the channel base confirmed significance last week

with the pair having broken Y113.33. Bulls initially target Y114.07-72 where Nov

monthly highs and the LT falling TL are noted. Bears still need a close below

Y113.04 to gain breathing room and below Y112.57 to add weight to the case for a

correction back to Y110.83-111.67 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

The Bollinger top remains the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 3: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 2: Y133.88 High Dec 11

*RES 1: Y133.47 Hourly resistance Dec

*PRICE: Y133.18 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.98 Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 

*SUP 2: Y132.58 Hourly support Dec 7 

*SUP 3: Y132.24 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 4: Y132.07 Daily Bull channel base off Aug Low

*COMMENTARY: The pair is looking a little heavy having failed to trouble 2017

highs on the recovery from dips below 21 & 55 (Y132.71-81) DMAs. The Y132.98

support is key today with bears needing a close below to shift initial focus

back to Y131.71-132.24 where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are situated.

Bulls now need a close above Y133.47 to gain breathing room and above Y133.88 to

reconfirm initial focus on 2017 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8773

*RES 4: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8907 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8871 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8852 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8822 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8789 Low Dec 12 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8773 Hourly support Dec 11a 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: The break of the Gbp0.8717 support Friday lacked follow through

with the pair bouncing from below the 55-WMA (Gbp0.8734). The close above the

200-DMA Monday eased bearish pressure and sees focus back on the 55-DMA. Bulls

still need a close above the 55-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8907-81 where

the bear channel top and 100-DMA are noted. Bears now look for a close below

Gbp0.8773 to return pressure to the Gbp0.8690 6mth low from last week.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $0.7686 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7654 - High Dec 5

*RES 2: $0.7607 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $0.7598 - Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7571 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7537 - Hourly resistance Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7500 - Low Dec 8 

*SUP 3: $0.7474 - LT Bull channel base (Jan 20 2016 low) 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: Having closed below $0.7519 last week confirmed immediate bearish

focus on the LT bull channel base. A close below the channel base sees bears

targeting $0.7326-65 where the MT bear channel base is noted. The pair is now

flirting with the 21-DMA ($0.7576). Overall bulls still need a close above the

bear channel top to shift initial focus back to $0.7653-0.7768 where 55

($0.7686) & 200 ($0.7689) DMAs are situated.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Shifts To 95.167-464

*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 94.349 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 94.165 - High Nov 21

*PRICE: 93.946 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.666 - Low Dec 11

*SUP 2: 93.488 - High Dec 5 now support

*SUP 3: 93.171 - Low Dec 6

*SUP 4: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to key DMAs last week saw a close above the

55-DMA (93.774) confirming an easing of bearish pressure and seeing immediate

focus on 94.165. Focus has now shifted to 95.167-464 with bulls now needing a

close above 94.650 to add support to their case. Bears still need a close below

93.488 to ease bullish pressure and below 93.035 to shift pressure back to the

92.496-604 region where Nov lows are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.437 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.539 - LT Weekly Bear channel top (off 2014 High) 

*RES 3: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 1: 2.424 - High Dec 1

*PRICE: 2.396 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.376 - Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.351 - Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.303 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.289 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield found support last week ahead of the 200-DMA and key

2.273-2.303 support region where the 100-DMA and 21-WMA are also noted. The

close above Wednesday's high (2.363) eased bearish pressure and sees focus back

on the 2.437 resistance. Bulls need a close above this level to return pressure

to 2.477 Oct highs with a close above then targeting 2017 highs. Bears need a

close below 2.351 to pressure the 200-DMA.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Bears Need Close Below $56.89 

*RES 4: $59.99 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 

*RES 2: $58.60 - High Dec 12 

*RES 1: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12

*PRICE: $57.55 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.89 - Low Dec 12 

*SUP 2: $56.61 - Low Dec 11 

*SUP 3: $55.88 - Low Dec 7 

*SUP 4: $55.15 - Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of the $58.99 Nov high is less than

ideal for bulls. Bears now look for a close below $56.89 to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and shift initial focus to $54.85-55.88 where the 55-DMA is

situated. Layers of resistance are starting to build with bulls now needing a

close above $57.98 to ease bearish pressure and above $58.99 to reconfirm focus

on $59.99-60.36 where the channel top and 200-WMA are noted.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 2017 Low

*RES 4: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 3: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1252.4 - High Dec 8

*PRICE: $1244.2 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1227.8 - Low July 17 

*SUP 2: $1214.0 - Low July 12 

*SUP 3: $1209.4 - Daily Bear channel base (Oct 6 Low) 

*SUP 4: $1204.7 - Monthly Low July 10

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on $1243.4 took its toll with initial focus shifting to

$1180.6-1214.0 where the bear channel base and monthly lows are situated. O/S

studies and Bollinger base ($1237.2) are key concerns for bears. Bulls look for

a close above $1252.4 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above $1269.9 to

shift focus back to $1274.8-1286.2 where DMAs and bear channel top are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]