MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1690 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.1862 High Dec 14

*RES 2: $1.1813 High Dec 15

*RES 1: $1.1766 Hourly resistance Dec 15

*PRICE: $1.1761 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1729 Low Dec 13 

*SUP 2: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 

*SUP 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1621 Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through after Wednesday's rally and the spike

towards $1.1884 Thursday was less than ideal for bulls with focus remaining on

the key $1.1690 support. Below $1.1690 remains needed to target $1.1552 Nov

lows. Bulls now need a close above $1.1813 to return focus on the 1.1940-61

region with a close above $1.1884 also still needed to add support to the

bullish case.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3388 Today

*RES 4: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 3: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 2: $1.3462 High Dec 14 

*RES 1: $1.3388 Low Dec 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3333 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3300 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 2: $1.3253 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3198 100-DMA, Daily bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.3128 Low Nov 15

*COMMENTARY: Lower daily swing highs are a concern for bulls with pressure

having returned to support layers following Friday's sell-off. Bears need a

close below $1.3300 to confirm focus on $1.3198-1.3253 where the bull channel

base, 55 & 100-DMAs and the Bollinger base ($1.3218) are situated. Bears need a

close below $1.3198 to shift focus to $1.2992-1.3037. Bulls need a close above

$1.3388 to ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus back to $1.3462-1.3459.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y112.88

*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13a 

*RES 1: Y112.88 High Dec 14

*PRICE: Y112.62 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.43 Hourly resistance Dec 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 3: Y111.61 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation saw the pair head lower taking out key

supports but the Y111.98 support remains in play. Thursday's losses see bears

focused on Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears

now look for a close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31). The pair was

rejected above the 55-DMA with bulls needing a close above Y112.88 to ease

bearish pressure and above Y114.07 to reconfirm focus on Y114.72 Nov highs.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Firmly On Key Supports

*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 3: Y133.88 High Dec 11

*RES 2: Y133.11 Hourly support Dec 14 now resistance

*RES 1: Y132.84 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.48 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.03 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 2: Y131.86 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y131.71 Low Nov 28 

*SUP 4: Y131.21 Low Nov 23

*COMMENTARY: The previously noted Y133.88 resistance confirmed significance with

the pair capped and looking heavy once more as pressure returns to layers of

support Y130.59-131.86 where 100-DMA and 21-WMA are noted. Bears still need a

close below Y131.71 to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA (Y127.73) with below

Y130.59 confirming. Layers of resistance are building with bulls now needing a

close above Y133.11 to ease pressure on key supports and pressure Y133.88.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8891 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8870 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8835 Hourly resistance Dec 15

*PRICE: Gbp0.8817 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Attempts to break higher remain capped ahead of the 55-DMA with

layers of resistance Gbp0.8870-8981 key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8981 to

shift initial focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. The Gbp0.8759 level supported last week

with bears now needing a close below to return immediate pressure to

Gbp0.8690.Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and

focus on tests of the bear channel base coming in around Gbp0.8425.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7623

*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 2: $0.7691 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7677 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7659 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7500 saw closes above the channel top & the

pair pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs. Layers of resistance remain $0.7677-0.7794 with

bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA ($0.7794) to shift overall focus to 2017

highs. Support layers emerged at a rapid pace with bears still needing a close

below $0.7623 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7580 to return

initial focus to $0.7482-00 where the weekly bull channel base is noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Key

*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 2: 94.219 - High Dec 12 

*RES 1: 94.107 - High Dec 13

*PRICE: 93.878 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 93.610 - Hourly resistance Dec 14 now support

*SUP 2: 93.282 - Low Dec 14

*SUP 3: 93.171 - Low Dec 6

*SUP 4: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in pressure on the 100-DMA (93.344) last week

failing to produce a close below needed to pressure the 92.496-604 support

region. Bears continue to look for a close below 92.496 to confirm focus on

tests of 2017 lows. The bounce Friday provided bulls breathing room with a close

above 94.219 still needed to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where

the 200-DMA (94.617) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring Channel Base

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 3: 2.426 - High Dec 13 

*RES 2: 2.398 - Hourly resistance Dec 13 

*RES 1: 2.380 - High Dec 15

*PRICE: 2.367 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.352 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 2.301 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.290 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: The 2.437 resistance remains key with topside failures resulting in

sell-offs and bears focused on the 2.273-301 region where key DMAs and Oct low

are located. Layers of resistance building are now weighing with bulls needing a

close above 2.398 to ease bearish pressure and return initial focus to

2.426-437. Overall above 2.437 targets 2017 highs and below 2.273 hints at a

move back to 2017 lows at 2.016 with below 2.207 to confirm.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower 

*RES 4: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 

*RES 3: $58.60 - High Dec 12 

*RES 2: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12 

*RES 1: $57.51 - High Dec 15

*PRICE: $57.40 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $56.99 - Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 2: $56.48 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $55.88 - Low Dec 7 

*SUP 4: $55.10 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of the $58.99 Nov high was less than

ideal last week and resulted in a dip below the channel base. Bears look for a

close below $55.88 to confirm a break of key supports and below the 55-DMA to

shift focus back to $52.56-76 where the channel base off June lows and 100-DMA

are noted. Bulls still need a close above $57.98 to reconfirm initial focus on

$58.60-58.99 with a break targeting channel tops.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1249.2

*RES 4: $1284.1 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 2: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1261.8 - High Dec 15

*PRICE: $1254.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13 

*SUP 2: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1227.8 - Low July 17

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise further on recent fresh 6mth lows with

the bounce easing immediate bearish pressure. Correcting O/S daily studies add

support to the case for a move back to layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where

DMAs and bear channel top are noted. The $1235.9-1249.2 support is key. Bears

need a close below $1249.2 to gain breathing room and below $1235.9 to target

$1204.6-1214.0.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]