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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
18 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1690 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.1862 High Dec 14
*RES 2: $1.1813 High Dec 15
*RES 1: $1.1766 Hourly resistance Dec 15
*PRICE: $1.1761 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1729 Low Dec 13
*SUP 2: $1.1713 Low Nov 21
*SUP 3: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support
*SUP 4: $1.1621 Low Nov 10
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through after Wednesday's rally and the spike
towards $1.1884 Thursday was less than ideal for bulls with focus remaining on
the key $1.1690 support. Below $1.1690 remains needed to target $1.1552 Nov
lows. Bulls now need a close above $1.1813 to return focus on the 1.1940-61
region with a close above $1.1884 also still needed to add support to the
bullish case.
CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3388 Today
*RES 4: $1.3549 High Nov 30
*RES 3: $1.3519 High Dec 8
*RES 2: $1.3462 High Dec 14
*RES 1: $1.3388 Low Dec 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3333 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3300 Low Dec 15
*SUP 2: $1.3253 55-DMA
*SUP 3: $1.3198 100-DMA, Daily bull channel base
*SUP 4: $1.3128 Low Nov 15
*COMMENTARY: Lower daily swing highs are a concern for bulls with pressure
having returned to support layers following Friday's sell-off. Bears need a
close below $1.3300 to confirm focus on $1.3198-1.3253 where the bull channel
base, 55 & 100-DMAs and the Bollinger base ($1.3218) are situated. Bears need a
close below $1.3198 to shift focus to $1.2992-1.3037. Bulls need a close above
$1.3388 to ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus back to $1.3462-1.3459.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y112.88
*RES 4: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 3: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*RES 2: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13a
*RES 1: Y112.88 High Dec 14
*PRICE: Y112.62 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.43 Hourly resistance Dec 14 now support
*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*SUP 3: Y111.61 200-DMA
*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29
*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation saw the pair head lower taking out key
supports but the Y111.98 support remains in play. Thursday's losses see bears
focused on Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears
now look for a close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31). The pair was
rejected above the 55-DMA with bulls needing a close above Y112.88 to ease
bearish pressure and above Y114.07 to reconfirm focus on Y114.72 Nov highs.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Firmly On Key Supports
*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25
*RES 3: Y133.88 High Dec 11
*RES 2: Y133.11 Hourly support Dec 14 now resistance
*RES 1: Y132.84 Low Dec 13 now resistance
*PRICE: Y132.48 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.03 Low Dec 15
*SUP 2: Y131.86 100-DMA
*SUP 3: Y131.71 Low Nov 28
*SUP 4: Y131.21 Low Nov 23
*COMMENTARY: The previously noted Y133.88 resistance confirmed significance with
the pair capped and looking heavy once more as pressure returns to layers of
support Y130.59-131.86 where 100-DMA and 21-WMA are noted. Bears still need a
close below Y131.71 to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA (Y127.73) with below
Y130.59 confirming. Layers of resistance are building with bulls now needing a
close above Y133.11 to ease pressure on key supports and pressure Y133.88.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 55-DMA
*RES 4: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance
*RES 3: Gbp0.8891 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 2: Gbp0.8870 55-DMA
*RES 1: Gbp0.8835 Hourly resistance Dec 15
*PRICE: Gbp0.8817 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8690 Low Dec 8
*COMMENTARY: Attempts to break higher remain capped ahead of the 55-DMA with
layers of resistance Gbp0.8870-8981 key. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8981 to
shift initial focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. The Gbp0.8759 level supported last week
with bears now needing a close below to return immediate pressure to
Gbp0.8690.Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and
focus on tests of the bear channel base coming in around Gbp0.8425.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7623
*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2
*RES 2: $0.7691 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7677 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7659 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 2: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 3: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7500 saw closes above the channel top & the
pair pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs. Layers of resistance remain $0.7677-0.7794 with
bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA ($0.7794) to shift overall focus to 2017
highs. Support layers emerged at a rapid pace with bears still needing a close
below $0.7623 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7580 to return
initial focus to $0.7482-00 where the weekly bull channel base is noted.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Key
*RES 4: 95.167 - High July 20
*RES 3: 94.650 - High Nov 10
*RES 2: 94.219 - High Dec 12
*RES 1: 94.107 - High Dec 13
*PRICE: 93.878 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 93.610 - Hourly resistance Dec 14 now support
*SUP 2: 93.282 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 3: 93.171 - Low Dec 6
*SUP 4: 93.035 - Low Dec 5
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in pressure on the 100-DMA (93.344) last week
failing to produce a close below needed to pressure the 92.496-604 support
region. Bears continue to look for a close below 92.496 to confirm focus on
tests of 2017 lows. The bounce Friday provided bulls breathing room with a close
above 94.219 still needed to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where
the 200-DMA (94.617) is noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring Channel Base
*RES 4: 2.437 - High Nov 30
*RES 3: 2.426 - High Dec 13
*RES 2: 2.398 - Hourly resistance Dec 13
*RES 1: 2.380 - High Dec 15
*PRICE: 2.367 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.352 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: 2.301 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 2.290 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13
*COMMENTARY: The 2.437 resistance remains key with topside failures resulting in
sell-offs and bears focused on the 2.273-301 region where key DMAs and Oct low
are located. Layers of resistance building are now weighing with bulls needing a
close above 2.398 to ease bearish pressure and return initial focus to
2.426-437. Overall above 2.437 targets 2017 highs and below 2.273 hints at a
move back to 2017 lows at 2.016 with below 2.207 to confirm.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24
*RES 3: $58.60 - High Dec 12
*RES 2: $57.98 - Hourly resistance Dec 12
*RES 1: $57.51 - High Dec 15
*PRICE: $57.40 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $56.99 - Hourly support Dec 15
*SUP 2: $56.48 - Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 3: $55.88 - Low Dec 7
*SUP 4: $55.10 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of the $58.99 Nov high was less than
ideal last week and resulted in a dip below the channel base. Bears look for a
close below $55.88 to confirm a break of key supports and below the 55-DMA to
shift focus back to $52.56-76 where the channel base off June lows and 100-DMA
are noted. Bulls still need a close above $57.98 to reconfirm initial focus on
$58.60-58.99 with a break targeting channel tops.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1249.2
*RES 4: $1284.1 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1
*RES 2: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance
*RES 1: $1261.8 - High Dec 15
*PRICE: $1254.6 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 2: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13
*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: $1227.8 - Low July 17
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise further on recent fresh 6mth lows with
the bounce easing immediate bearish pressure. Correcting O/S daily studies add
support to the case for a move back to layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where
DMAs and bear channel top are noted. The $1235.9-1249.2 support is key. Bears
need a close below $1249.2 to gain breathing room and below $1235.9 to target
$1204.6-1214.0.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.