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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
22 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA
*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27
*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1
*RES 2: $1.1922 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 1: $1.1901 High Dec 20
*PRICE: $1.1847 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1805 Hourly support Dec 19, 100-DMA
*SUP 2: $1.1775 Low Dec 19
*SUP 3: $1.1713 Low Nov 21
*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $1.1901-61 resistance region is less than
ideal for bulls who look for a close above $1.1961 to confirm focus on tests of
2017 highs. The pair is looking a little heavy today with bears needing a close
below the 100-DMA to confirm pressure back on $1.1690. A close below $1.1690
remains needed to shift focus to $1.1466-1.1552 where the 200-DMA and Nov low
are situated.
CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.3519 High Dec 8
*RES 3: $1.3462 High Dec 14
*RES 2: $1.3418 High Dec 18
*RES 1: $1.3394 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1.3377 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3329 Low Dec 21
*SUP 2: $1.3300 Low Dec 15
*SUP 3: $1.3270 55-DMA
*SUP 4: $1.3207 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from around $1.3300 is struggling with the pair now
capped by the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease pressure
on support layers and return initial focus to $1.3462 with a close above this
level to reconfirm focus on $1.3549. Bears need a close below $1.3300 to
pressure $1.3207-70 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base are noted.
Below the 100-DMA is needed to shift focus to $1.2992-1.3037.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus On Y113.74-114.07
*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6
*RES 3: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High
*RES 2: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 1: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*PRICE: Y113.31 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.08 High Dec 19 now support
*SUP 2: Y112.88 55-DMA
*SUP 3: Y112.59 21-DMA
*SUP 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on dips with the marginal close
above the 55-DMA Tuesday seeing bulls initially focused on Y113.74-114.07. Bulls
look for a close above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then Y118.60 2017 highs.
Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to
Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a
close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31).
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Key Today
*RES 4: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015
*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance
*RES 2: Y134.88 2017 High Dec 21
*RES 1: Y134.43 Low Dec 21 now resistance
*PRICE: Y134.24 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 2: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 3: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 4: Y132.54 Hourly support Dec 18
*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2017 & 2+ year highs open up for a potential move
targeting monthly highs Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y134.66) is the key
concern for bulls. Layers of support are following the pair higher with bears
now needing a close below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back
to the key Y130.59-132.45 support region where the 100-DMA and bull channel base
are noted. Immediate bullish focus is on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8826
*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28
*RES 3: Gbp0.8937 100-DMA
*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance
*RES 1: Gbp0.8890 High Dec 21
*PRICE: Gbp0.8854 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support
*COMMENTARY: The pop above the bear channel top (Gbp0.8870) has lacked follow
through which is a concern for bulls who are currently focused on Gbp0.8922-81
where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8981 to shift initial
focus to Gbp0.9048-0.9107. The dip in Asia provides bears with hope but a close
below Gbp0.8826 remains needed to shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Flexing Their Muscle
*RES 4: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7783 - 100-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7730 - High Nov 2
*PRICE: $0.7710 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7692 - 200-DMA
*SUP 2: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14
*SUP 3: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55 ($0.7668) & 200-DMAs has taken its toll with the
close above the 200-DMA adding support to the bullish case. Bulls continue to
look for a close above the 100-DMA to shift overall focus to 2017 highs. Key
supports remain. Bears now need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room
and below $0.7623 to hint at a move back to $0.7482-00 with below $0.7580 to
confirm.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: 94.219 - High Dec 12
*RES 3: 94.107 - High Dec 13
*RES 2: 93.766 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: 93.555 - Hourly resistance Dec 22
*PRICE: 93.392 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 93.163 - Low Dec 20
*SUP 2: 93.039 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5
*SUP 4: 92.604 - Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on bounces from the 100-DMA
(93.354) with the failure to take out 94.219 seeing pressure back on supports.
Bears look for a close below 93.163 to add weight to their case with a close
below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still look for a
close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 94.219 to reconfirm a
bullish bias targeting 95.167-654 where the 200-DMA (94.467) is noted.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.423-472 Support Key
*RES 4: 2.641 - 2016 High Dec 15
*RES 3: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13
*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17
*RES 1: 2.536 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high)
*PRICE: 2.481 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.472 - Hourly support Dec 20
*SUP 2: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19
*SUP 3: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a
*SUP 4: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with
the correction higher seeing a close above 2.477 shift bullish focus to
2.628-641 where 2017 & 2016 highs are situated. Daily studies remain well placed
for gains. Layers of support are building and providing bulls confidence. Bears
need a close below 2.472 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below 2.423 to
confirm a correction back to 2.344-376.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Above $58.99 Targets $60.25-62.59
*RES 4: $60.48 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: $60.25 - 200-WMA
*RES 2: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24
*RES 1: $58.60 - High Dec 12
*PRICE: $58.19 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $58.08 - Hourly support Dec 21
*SUP 2: $57.58 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $57.20 - Low Dec 19
*SUP 4: $56.88 - Low Dec 18
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards $55.88 sees bulls
focused on $58.60-58.99 with a break targeting the 200-WMA and channel tops
($60.48-62.59). Layers of support building add to bullish confidence with a
close below the 21-DMA now needed to ease renewed bullish pressure. A close
below $55.15 remains needed to confirm a break of the 55-DMA ($55.59) and
initially target 52.77-54.07.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance Region
*RES 4: $1278.7 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1
*RES 2: $1275.7 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $1266.0 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1259.2 - Low Dec 19
*SUP 2: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18
*SUP 3: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 4: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13
*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a correction back
towards layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where DMAs and bear channel top are
noted. Layers of support have accumulated with bears needing a close below
$1259.2 to gain breathing room, below $1249.2 to shift immediate focus to
$1235.9 and overall focus to $1204.6-1214.0. Bulls need a close above $1269.9 to
add to confidence.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.