MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressure Remains On Key Resistance

*RES 4: $1.2092 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 3: $1.2033 High Sept 20

*RES 2: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 1: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*PRICE: $1.1914 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1879 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: $1.1808 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1775 Low Dec 19 

*SUP 4: $1.1713 Low Nov 21

*COMMENTARY: The daily bear channel top ($1.1915) confirmed significance and

with the $1.1940-61 resistance region remaining key. Bulls need a close above

$1.1961 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 highs. Bulls take comfort in support

emerging on dips with bears needing a close below the 100-DMA to confirm

pressure back on $1.1690. A close below $1.1690 remains needed to shift focus to

$1.1472-1.1552 where the 200-DMA ($1.1488) and Nov low are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.3462

*RES 4: $1.3549 High Nov 30 

*RES 3: $1.3519 High Dec 8 

*RES 2: $1.3506 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.3462 High Dec 14

*PRICE: $1.3419 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3388 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: $1.3368 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: $1.3329 Low Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1.3300 Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from around $1.3300 has received a boost with the pair

gaining traction above the 21-DMA ($1.3402) and looking for a close above to

ease bearish pressure and reconfirm initial focus to $1.3462 and overall focus

on $1.3549. Bears now need a close below $1.3388 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and target a correction back to $1.3283-1.3329 where the 55-DMA

($1.3283) is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Remains Key Support

*RES 4: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High 

*RES 3: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 2: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 1: Y113.44 High Dec 22

*PRICE: Y113.07 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.93 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 3: Y111.64 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on dips last week with closes above the

55-DMA seeing bulls initially focused on Y113.74-114.07. Bulls look for a close

above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then Y118.60 2017 highs. Bears still need a

close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Bears look for a

close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31).

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.88 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 2: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 1: Y134.97 2017 High Dec 27

*PRICE: Y134.75 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.58 High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 2: Y134.28 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 3: Y133.88 Hourly support Dec 20 

*SUP 4: Y133.60 Hourly support Dec 19

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2017 & 2+ year highs continue, adding support for a potential

move targeting monthly highs Y139.02-141.05. The Bolli top (Y135.16) is the key

concern for bulls. Layers of support followed the pair higher with bears needing

a close below Y133.88 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the key

Y130.59-132.67 support region where the 100-DMA and bull channel base are noted.

Immediate bullish focus is on Y135.84-136.40 while Y133.88 supports.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8826

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8930 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8922 Low Nov 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8892 High Dec 26

*PRICE: Gbp0.8877 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8826 Low Dec 20 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8780 Hourly support Dec 15 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8759 Lows Dec 14 & 15 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8736 Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite trading above the bear channel top (Gbp0.8855) the pair

remains capped ahead of the 100-DMA. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA to

add support to their case and confirm initial focus on Gbp0.8981-0.9048. O/B

daily studies remain the key concern for bulls. Layers of support remain with

bears continuing to look for a close below Gbp0.8826 to shift initial focus back

to Gbp0.8690-0.8759.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7693-0.7760 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 3: $0.7906 - Low Sept 22 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7863 - 200-WMA

*RES 1: $0.7795 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $0.7786 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - Highs Dec 25 & 26 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7692 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from Dec lows now pressuring the

100-DMA ($0.7778). Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-DMA to shift

overall focus to 2017 highs. Key supports remain with bears needing a close

below $0.7760 to gain breathing room. Bears still need a close below the 200-DMA

to shift initial focus to $0.7623 and hint at a move back to $0.7482-00 with

below $0.7580 to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Closing Below Channel Base

*RES 4: 93.756 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 93.442 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 93.309 - High Dec 27 

*RES 1: 93.122 - Hourly resistance Dec 27

*PRICE: 92.922 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 92.776 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 92.604 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: 92.496 - Low Nov 27

*SUP 4: 91.781 - Low Sept 22

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA capping recently has resulted in a break of the bull

channel base (93.146) with bears now needing a close below 92.496 to confirm a

return in focus to tests of 2017 lows. Modestly O/S daily studies are less than

ideal for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 94.219 and overall

focus to 95.167-464.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Now On 2.344-398

*RES 4: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 3: 2.479 - High Dec 27 

*RES 2: 2.459 - Low Dec 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.432 - Hourly resistance Dec 27

*PRICE: 2.425 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.398 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.372 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.299 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the weekly bear channel top (2.534) combined

with waning momentum provided the impetus for a correction that eases bullish

pressure. Focus returns to 2.344-398 where key DMAs and the bull channel base

are noted. Bears now need a close below 2.344 to confirm breaks and initially

pressure the 200-DMA (2.299). Bulls now need a close above 2.432 to gain

breathing room and above 2.479 to shift focus higher.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (G18) Hesitating Ahead Of 200-WMA 

*RES 4: $62.87 - Daily Bull channel top (off Oct low) 

*RES 3: $61.30 - Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $60.70 - Daily Bull channel top (off June low) 

*RES 1: $60.15 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $59.70 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $59.33 - Low Dec 27 

*SUP 2: $58.99 - Monthly High Nov 24 now support 

*SUP 3: $58.18 - Hourly support Dec 22 

*SUP 4: $57.80 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the dip back towards $55.88 resulted in a close

above $58.99 Tuesday with bulls firmly focused on $60.15-70 where the bull

channel top off June lows is located. Bulls look for a close above $60.63 to

initially target the bull channel top off Oct lows. Layers of support

accumulating add to bullish confidence. Bears look for a close below $58.99 to

ease bullish pressure and below $56.88 to pressure the 55-DMA ($56.09).

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1289.5

*RES 4: $1334.8 - High Sept 13 

*RES 3: $1320.0 - High Sept 18 

*RES 2: $1306.1 - Monthly High Oct 16 

*RES 1: $1299.1 - Monthly High Nov 27

*PRICE: $1289.4 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1281.5 - Low Dec 27 

*SUP 2: $1275.8 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1270.1 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1265.5 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Dec lows has resulted in closes above the 55-DMA

and bear channel top with immediate focus on $1289.5. Bulls look for a close

above this level to hint at a move back to the $1306.0-1320.0 region. Daily

studies approaching O/S and the Bollinger top ($1293.9) are concerns for bulls.

Bears now need a close below $1281.5 to ease bullish pressure and below $1259.2

to shift focus back to $1235.9.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]