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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

20 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of LT Bear Channel Top
*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16
*RES 3: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 2: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16
*RES 1: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*PRICE: $1.2392 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2368 Low Feb 19 
*SUP 2: $1.2330 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.2299 Daily Bull channel base off Jan 10 low 
*SUP 4: $1.2277 Low Feb 14
*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 3yr highs lacked follow through with the pair rejected ahead
of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs
Friday. Bears need a close below $1.2368 to pressure $1.2167-1.2299 where the
bull channel base off 2018 lows is found. Bulls need a close above $1.2461 to
gain breathing room and above $1.2515 to retain focus on the weekly bear channel
top.
     CABLE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead of 200-WMA
*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 
*RES 3: $1.4162 Low Feb 1 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1.4086 Hourly support Feb 15 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.4033 Hourly resistance Feb 19
*PRICE: $1.3978 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3958 Low Feb 19 
*SUP 2: $1.3923 High Feb 13 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.3794 Low Feb 12 
*SUP 4: $1.3763 Low Feb 9
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Feb lows so far ($1.3765) sees bulls looking for
a close above $1.4162 to confirm focus on 2018 highs and the key 200-WMA lurking
above. A weekly close above the 200-WMA was last seen in Q4 2014. A close above
would target $1.5019 2016 highs. The $1.3923 support remains key. Bears still
need a close below $1.3923 to target $1.3657-1.3765.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y105.50 Support Confirms Significance
*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 
*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y107.54 Hourly resistance Feb 14a 
*RES 1: Y106.91 Hourly resistance Feb 15
*PRICE: Y106.68 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 
*SUP 2: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 
*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 
*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016
*COMMENTARY: The Y105.50 support confirmed significance last week supporting on
fresh 2018 lows. Bears need a close below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for
a move back to Y99.08-101.15. Bulls look for a close above Y106.91 to gain
breathing room, above Y108.03 to hint at a correction back to Y110.47 and above
Y109.79 to confirm. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y106.06) remain
concerns for bears.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y130.50 To Confirm 200-DMA Break
*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9
*RES 3: Y133.78 High Feb 13
*RES 2: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance
*RES 1: Y132.61 Hourly resistance Feb 16
*PRICE: Y132.33 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.51 2018 Low Feb 16 
*SUP 2: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 
*SUP 3: Y131.10 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y130.50 Low Sept 14
*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the Y130.50-131.51 support region with a
close below Y130.50 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and hint at a move back to
Y125.80-127.54. O/S daily studies are a concern for bears. Bulls now need a
close above Y132.61 to gain breathing room and above Y133.78 to confirm a break
of the 100-DMA (Y133.63) and hint at a shift higher in focus. Above the 55-DMA
(Y134.42) then targets 2018 highs although Y135.82 may slow the move.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 55-DMA Support Now Key
*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8889 High Feb 16
*PRICE: Gbp0.8865 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8833 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8821 Hourly resistance Feb 8 now support 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8776 Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the key Gbp0.8928 resistance is less than ideal
as daily studies linger at O/B levels and momentum begins to correct. Bulls
still need a close above Gbp0.8928 to end bearish hopes and initially target
Gbp0.9013-48. Layers of support remain in place. Bears continue to look for a
close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below Gbp0.8776 to shift
focus back to Gbp0.8685-0.8730.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7867 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2
*RES 3: $0.7989 - High Feb 16
*RES 2: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7918 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7889 - Low Feb 15 
*SUP 2: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 
*SUP 3: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 
*SUP 4: $0.7801 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from another dip back towards the 200-DMA was
aggressive although failure to gain traction on the marginal break of $0.7985
leaves the pair looking heavy. Bears look for a close below $0.7867 to shift
focus back to $0.7229-74 where 100 & 200-DMAs and the bull channel base are
noted. Below $0.7729 shifts focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Above $0.7989 returns
focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 
*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18 
*RES 2: 90.598 - 55-DMA 
*RES 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19
*PRICE: 89.369 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 2: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*SUP 3: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support
*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16
*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on 2018 & 3+ year lows Friday with bulls
taking comfort in the minor recovery that now pressures the 55-DMA. Bulls now
need a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 91.751 to shift
initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to 94.219-95.149. While the 55-DMA
caps bears remain focused on 87.202-627 where the weekly bear channel base and
Dec 2014 monthly low are situated.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Above $63.94 Targets 2018 High 
*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5 
*RES 3: $63.94 - High Feb 6 
*RES 2: $62.86 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance
*PRICE: $62.05 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $61.88 - High Feb 16 now support 
*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 
*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 
*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support
*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from very O/S are well placed for gains
following the bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA. The contract is gaining traction
above the 55-DMA ($61.14) adding to bullish confidence. Overall bulls look for a
close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close
below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA to target the 200-DMA
($53.64).
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1336.8 Targets 55 & 100-DMAs
*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 
*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 
*RES 2: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 
*RES 1: $1351.3 - High Feb 19
*PRICE: $1340.8 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1339.3 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1336.8 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 
*SUP 3: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 
*SUP 4: $1310.9 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high
was less than ideal for bulls. Bulls still need a close above $1374.9 to confirm
breaks of 2016 & 2018 highs and focus on $1391.8-1433.3. Bears now need a close
below $1336.8 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to
$1297.1-1310.9 where 55 & 100-DMAs & the 21-WMA ($1299.6) are noted.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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