MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hinting At Correction To $1.2327-1.2435

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 2: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $1.2327 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2281 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2253 Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2191) is

a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base at

$1.2164. The bounce hints at a correction back to $1.2327-1.2435 with a close

above needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs. The $1.2092 support remains

key. Bears need a close below to end bullish hopes and initially target

$1.1915-95 where the 100-DMA is located.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3857 Resistance Remains Key Today

*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 1: $1.3857 Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3785 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3710 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3613 High Jan 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that followed Tuesday's rejection above the 21-DMA

($1.3930) resulted in fresh 2mth lows Thursday although follow through has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($1.3739). The $1.3857 resistance

remains key with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above

$1.3940 to shift focus back to $1.4150. While $1.3857 caps bears focus on the

$1.3553-1.3612 region.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y105.50 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.61 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.06 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 2: Y105.32 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 has left the pair looking

heavy and retains immediate bearish focus on a retest of 2018 lows. A close

below Y105.50 remains needed to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. Resistance

layers are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y108.03 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with

above Y108.42 to confirm. Daily studies are well placed for fresh losses.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Finding Support Ahead Of 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y131.70 Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*RES 3: Y131.45 Hourly support Feb 28a now resistance

*RES 2: Y131.33 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y130.91 Low Feb 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.30 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.61 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 3: Y128.47 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & 6mth lows leave the pair looking heavy with

overall focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 & 200-WMAs

which may support along the way. The Bollinger base is noted at Y129.20 and

remains unchallenged indicating the move isn't getting ahead of itself. Bulls

now need a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to

target a correction back to Y133.05-134.17 where key DMAs are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8928

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8928 High Jan 12 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8917 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Gbp0.8908 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8885 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8866 High Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8835 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to Gbp0.8928 following the recovery from the

week's low. The close above the 200-DMA (Gbp0.8885) adds support to the bullish

case but a close above Gbp0.8928 is still needed to target Gbp0.9013-48. Daily

studies are well placed for gains. Layers of support are now a concern for bears

who look for a close below Gbp0.8835 to ease pressure on Gbp0.8928 and shift

initial focus back to Gbp0.8769 weekly lows so far.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $0.7694

*RES 4: $0.7870 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7819 - High Feb 28

*RES 2: $0.7785 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7772 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7757 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but

follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7233).

Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls now look for

a close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears now look for a

close below $0.7694 to add weight to their case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Around 55-DMA

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.845 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: 90.157 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.080 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support

*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance

leaves a bearish key day reversal in place with bears continuing to look for a

close below 90.080 to shift initial focus to 89.442. A close below this level

then sees immediate focus back to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and the

Bollinger top (90.851) remain concerns for bulls who now need a close above

91.011 to initially pressure 91.751.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.758 Targets 2.609-648

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 2.875 - High Mar 1 

*RES 1: 2.824 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.810 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*SUP 3: 2.648 - Low Feb 6, 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.609 - Low Jan 24

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Focus has now returned to

2.758-786 following the close below the daily bull channel base (2.826) and

21-DMA (2.855). Bears now look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and

shift focus back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls now need a close

above 2.875 to gain breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA 

*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 2: $61.94 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $61.83 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: $60.96 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.18 - Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 3: $59.11 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $58.72 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Losses have defined the week so far with bulls now needing a close

above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $64.97 to return initial

focus to $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. While the 21-DMA caps bears

remain focused on layers of support $57.90-59.60 where the 100-DMA ($58.82) and

daily bull channel base ($59.11) are situated. Correcting O/B studies add weight

to the bearish case.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Aggressive Bounce Ahead Of 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1316.6 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1300.2 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1287.2 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the Bollinger

base ($1306.0) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the correction

from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing

room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs

are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to

$1235.9 Dec lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]