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Free AccessMNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis
5 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372-1.2435 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: $1.2604 Weekly Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1.2327 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2288 Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support
*SUP 2: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2
*SUP 3: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support
*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2202) is
a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base at
$1.2173. Immediate focus has returned to $1.2372-1.2435 with a close above
needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs. The $1.2092 support remains key.
Bears need a close below to end bullish hopes and initially target $1.1915-00
where the 100-DMA is located.
CABLE TECHS: $1.3857 Resistance Remains Key Today
*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26
*RES 3: $1.3997 High Feb 27
*RES 2: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27
*RES 1: $1.3857 Low Feb 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3792 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1
*SUP 2: $1.3710 Low Mar 1
*SUP 3: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support
*SUP 4: $1.3613 High Jan 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that followed Tuesday's rejection above the 21-DMA
($1.3915) resulted in fresh 2mth lows Thursday although follow through has been
lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($1.3738). The $1.3857 resistance
remains key with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above
$1.3940 to shift focus back to $1.4150. While $1.3857 caps bears focus on the
$1.3558-1.3612 region.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.54 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 3: Y107.38 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1
*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance
*PRICE: Y105.52 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2
*SUP 2: Y105.04 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016
*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 left the pair looking
heavy and has resulted in fresh 2018 7 15mth lows. Follow through has been a
little lacking but bears continue to focus on Y98.95-101.15. Resistance layers
are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y106.54 to gain
breathing room. Above Y108.03 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Finding Support Around 200-WMA
*RES 4: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance
*RES 3: Y131.36 200-DMA
*RES 2: Y130.91 Low Feb 23 now resistance
*RES 1: Y130.78 High Mar 1
*PRICE: Y130.02 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.56 200-WMA
*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6
*SUP 3: Y128.66 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18
*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & 6mth lows left the pair looking heavy last
week with overall focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 &
200-WMAs with the 200-WMA currently supporting. The Bollinger base is noted at
Y129.35 and remains unchallenged. Bulls still need a close above the 200-DMA to
gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to target a correction back to
Y133.05-134.17 where key DMAs are situated.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance
*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15
*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28
*RES 1: Gbp0.8951 2018 High Mar 2
*PRICE: Gbp0.8935 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8919 Hourly support Mar 2
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8886 200-DMA
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8877 Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8843 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the key Gbp0.8928 resistance took its toll with the
close above shifting initial bullish focus to Gbp0.9013-48. Daily studies remain
well placed for gains. Layers of support have continued to follow the pair
higher. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.0.8877 to gain breathing room and
below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8685-0.8769.
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $0.7694
*RES 4: $0.7872 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7840 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7819 - High Feb 28
*RES 1: $0.7787 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7751 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1
*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but
follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7223).
Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls look for a
close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish pressure
and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears now look for a close below
$0.7694 to add weight to their case.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Around 55-DMA
*RES 4: 90.767 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance
*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1
*RES 1: 90.293 - High Mar 2
*PRICE: 89.959 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 89.822 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance
left a bearish key day reversal in place with the close below 90.080 shifting
initial focus to 89.442. A close below this level then sees immediate focus back
to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and the Bollinger top (90.828) remain
concerns for bulls who now need a close above 91.011 to initially pressure
91.751.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.875
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2
*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21
*RES 2: 2.925 - High Feb 27
*RES 1: 2.875 - High Mar 1
*PRICE: 2.842 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.830 - Hourly support Feb 2
*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2
*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9
*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less
than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to
capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key
supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift
focus back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above
2.875 to gain breathing room.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bulls Need Close Above $61.83
*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26
*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27
*RES 2: $61.83 - Hourly resistance Mar 1
*RES 1: $61.76 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $61.49 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $60.13 - Low Mar 2
*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: $59.20 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: $58.93 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with bulls now needing a close above
$61.83 to ease bearish pressure and above $64.97 to return initial focus to
$66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. While $61.83 caps bears remain focused on
layers of support $57.90-59.60 where the 100-DMA and daily bull channel base
($59.20) are situated. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1330.0-1351.3 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26
*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance
*RES 1: $1329.3 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1325.9 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support
*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 3: $1300.5 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $1287.5 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the Bollinger
base ($1306.6) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the correction
from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing
room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs
are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to
$1235.9 Dec lows.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.