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Trend Condition Remains Bearish

5 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372-1.2435 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: $1.2604 Weekly Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1.2327 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2288 Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support
*SUP 2: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 
*SUP 3: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2202) is
a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base at
$1.2173. Immediate focus has returned to $1.2372-1.2435 with a close above
needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs. The $1.2092 support remains key.
Bears need a close below to end bullish hopes and initially target $1.1915-00
where the 100-DMA is located.
     CABLE TECHS: $1.3857 Resistance Remains Key Today
*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26 
*RES 3: $1.3997 High Feb 27 
*RES 2: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27 
*RES 1: $1.3857 Low Feb 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.3792 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1 
*SUP 2: $1.3710 Low Mar 1 
*SUP 3: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.3613 High Jan 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that followed Tuesday's rejection above the 21-DMA
($1.3915) resulted in fresh 2mth lows Thursday although follow through has been
lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($1.3738). The $1.3857 resistance
remains key with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above
$1.3940 to shift focus back to $1.4150. While $1.3857 caps bears focus on the
$1.3558-1.3612 region.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.54 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 
*RES 3: Y107.38 21-DMA 
*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 
*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance
*PRICE: Y105.52 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 
*SUP 2: Y105.04 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 
*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 left the pair looking
heavy and has resulted in fresh 2018 7 15mth lows. Follow through has been a
little lacking but bears continue to focus on Y98.95-101.15. Resistance layers
are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y106.54 to gain
breathing room. Above Y108.03 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Finding Support Around 200-WMA
*RES 4: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance
*RES 3: Y131.36 200-DMA
*RES 2: Y130.91 Low Feb 23 now resistance
*RES 1: Y130.78 High Mar 1
*PRICE: Y130.02 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.56 200-WMA 
*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 
*SUP 3: Y128.66 55-WMA 
*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18
*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & 6mth lows left the pair looking heavy last
week with overall focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 &
200-WMAs with the 200-WMA currently supporting. The Bollinger base is noted at
Y129.35 and remains unchallenged. Bulls still need a close above the 200-DMA to
gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to target a correction back to
Y133.05-134.17 where key DMAs are situated.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 
*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8951 2018 High Mar 2
*PRICE: Gbp0.8935 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8919 Hourly support Mar 2 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8886 200-DMA 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8877 Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8843 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the key Gbp0.8928 resistance took its toll with the
close above shifting initial bullish focus to Gbp0.9013-48. Daily studies remain
well placed for gains. Layers of support have continued to follow the pair
higher. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.0.8877 to gain breathing room and
below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8685-0.8769.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $0.7694
*RES 4: $0.7872 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7840 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7819 - High Feb 28
*RES 1: $0.7787 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7751 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 
*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 
*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14 
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but
follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7223).
Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls look for a
close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish pressure
and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears now look for a close below
$0.7694 to add weight to their case.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Around 55-DMA
*RES 4: 90.767 - 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance 
*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 
*RES 1: 90.293 - High Mar 2
*PRICE: 89.959 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 89.822 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance
left a bearish key day reversal in place with the close below 90.080 shifting
initial focus to 89.442. A close below this level then sees immediate focus back
to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and the Bollinger top (90.828) remain
concerns for bulls who now need a close above 91.011 to initially pressure
91.751.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 2.875
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 
*RES 2: 2.925 - High Feb 27 
*RES 1: 2.875 - High Mar 1
*PRICE: 2.842 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.830 - Hourly support Feb 2 
*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 
*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 
*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less
than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to
capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key
supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift
focus back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above
2.875 to gain breathing room.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bulls Need Close Above $61.83 
*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26 
*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 
*RES 2: $61.83 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 
*RES 1: $61.76 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $61.49 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $60.13 - Low Mar 2 
*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 
*SUP 3: $59.20 - Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 4: $58.93 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with bulls now needing a close above
$61.83 to ease bearish pressure and above $64.97 to return initial focus to
$66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. While $61.83 caps bears remain focused on
layers of support $57.90-59.60 where the 100-DMA and daily bull channel base
($59.20) are situated. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1330.0-1351.3 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 
*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1329.3 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $1325.9 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 
*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 
*SUP 3: $1300.5 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1287.5 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the Bollinger
base ($1306.6) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the correction
from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing
room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs
are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to
$1235.9 Dec lows.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]