MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

6 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372-1.2435 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.2604 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1.2348 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2211)

last week was a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the

Bollinger base at $1.2173. Immediate focus has returned to $1.2372-1.2435 with a

close above $1.2435 needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs. Bears now look

for a close below $1.2251 to retain focus on the $1.2092 support.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3940 To Target $1.4150

*RES 4: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 1: $1.3912 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3841 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3822 Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 2: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $1.3710 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that followed Tuesday's rejection above the 21-DMA

($1.3915) resulted in fresh 2mth lows Thursday although follow through has been

lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($1.3739). The recovery sees

pressure back on the 21-DMA with bulls now needing a close above $1.3940 to

confirm a break and shift focus back to $1.4150. Bears now need a close below

$1.3822 to ease pressure on the 21-DMA.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.54 Resistance Remains Key Today

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.28 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.36 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.12 Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y105.08 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 left the pair looking

heavy and has resulted in fresh 2018 & 15mth lows. Follow through has been a

little lacking but bears continue to focus on Y98.95-101.15. Resistance layers

are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y106.54 to gain

breathing room. Above Y108.03 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y134.07 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.49 100-DMA

*RES 2: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.22 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.31 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.77 High Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: Y129.57 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.68 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 6mth lows lacked follow through with the recovery now

seeing the pair flirting with the 200-DMA (Y131.41). Bulls look for a close

above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift initial

focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Initial support is now

noted at 130.77 with bears needing a close below to retain focus 55 & 200-WMAs.

Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: Gbp0.9048 Low Aug 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8951 2018 High Mar 2

*PRICE: Gbp0.8917 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8877 Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8844 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the key Gbp0.8928 resistance took its toll with the

close above shifting initial bullish focus to Gbp0.9013-48. Daily studies remain

well placed for gains. Layers of support have continued to follow the pair

higher. Bears still need a close below Gbp0.0.8877 to gain breathing room and

below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to Gbp0.8685-0.8769 where monthly and 2018

lows are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $0.7874 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7836 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7819 - High Feb 28

*RES 1: $0.7788 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7782 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 2: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble $0.7694 and the lack of follow through on

approach remains a concern for bears and sees the pair now flirting with the

200-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure

and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Correcting O/S studies add

support to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below $0.7694 to confirm

focus on tests of $0.7500 Dec lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 21-DMA Now Supporting

*RES 4: 90.701 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 1: 90.293 - High Mar 2

*PRICE: 89.948 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.847 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance

left a bearish key day reversal in place with the close below 90.080 shifting

initial focus to 89.442. The 21-DMA is now supporting. A close below 89.442 is

needed to shift immediate focus back to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and

the Bollinger top (90.851) remain concerns for bulls who need a close above

91.011 to initially pressure 91.751.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.947 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.883 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.875 - Hourly resistance Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to

capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key

supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 2.609-668 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above

2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Focus Returns To $64.24-96 

*RES 4: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 2: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27

*PRICE: $62.68 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $61.70 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $61.10 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $60.13 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: $59.60 - Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: A lack of follow through on dips back to $60.13 has provided the

impetus for a close above 21 & 55 ($61.87) DMAs and sees focus return to

$64.24-97. Bulls now need a close above this region to return initial focus to

$66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears now need a close below $61.10 to

confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and return focus to $57.90-59.59 where the

100-DMA and bull channel base are noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1330.0-1351.3 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1328.2 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1322.5 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1300.7 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1287.8 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the

Bollinger base ($1305.2) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the

correction from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to

gain breathing room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9

where 2016 highs are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a

move back to $1235.9 Dec lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]