MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2320

*RES 4: $1.2640 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2489 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2444 High Mar 7

*PRICE: $1.2406 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2364 High Mar 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2320 Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 4: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2232)

resulted in a pop above the $1.2435 resistance. Bulls now look for a close above

$1.2444 to confirm initial focus on 2018 highs and overall focus to the weekly

bear channel top off 2008 highs. Support layers accumulating adds to bullish

confidence with bears needing a close below $1.2320 to ease bullish pressure and

return focus to $1.2092-1.2153.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3940 To Target $1.4150

*RES 4: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1.3997 High Feb 27 

*RES 1: $1.3940 Hourly resistance Feb 27

*PRICE: $1.3903 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3827 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3754 Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $1.3710 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.3657 Monthly High Sept 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $1.3710 Mar lows so far sees cable flirting with

the 21-DMA ($1.3913) as bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3940 to

confirm a break and shift focus back to $1.4150. Daily studies correcting from

modestly O/S levels are perfectly placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now need

a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $1.3710 to shift

initial focus to $1.3612-56.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.19 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 2: Y106.95 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.05 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y105.14 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 left the pair looking

heavy and has resulted in fresh 2018 & 15mth lows. Follow through has been

lacking but bears continue to focus on Y98.95-101.15. Resistance layers are

accumulating and weighing. Bulls now need a close above Y107.19 to ease bearish

pressure. Above Y108.03 is needed to hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with

above Y108.42 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y132.18

*RES 4: Y133.46 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.18 High Feb 27

*RES 1: Y131.93 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.59 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.58 Low Mar 6 

*SUP 2: Y129.57 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.68 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 6mth lows lacked follow through with the recovery

seeing the pair flirting with the 200-DMA (Y131.48). Bulls now look for a close

above Y132.18 to shift initial focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. Above Y134.16 is needed to target 2018 highs. Key support is now noted

at 130.58 with bears needing a close below to retain focus 55 & 200-WMAs.

Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: Gbp0.9013 Monthly High Nov 15 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8935 Hourly resistance Mar 7

*PRICE: Gbp0.8934 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8889 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8877 Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8846 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the key Gbp0.8928 resistance took its toll with the

close above shifting initial bullish focus to Gbp0.9013-48. The Bollinger band

top (Gbp0.8952) remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

Layers of support remain in place with bears needing a close below Gbp0.0.8877

to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8685-0.8769 where monthly and 2018 lows are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $0.7910

*RES 4: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 3: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 2: $0.7880 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7842 - High Mar 6

*PRICE: $0.7830 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7769 - Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble $0.7694 and the lack of follow through on

approach remains a concern for bears and sees close above the 200-DMA ($0.7793)

with focus now on $0.7842-0.7910. Bulls still need a close above $0.7910 to

shift initial focus to $0.7989 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Bears now

look for a close below $0.7753 to ease renewed bullish pressure. Daily studies

are well placed for gains.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 2: 90.293 - High Mar 2 

*RES 1: 89.803 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 89.578 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.431 - Low Mar 6

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance

left a bearish key day reversal in place with the close below 90.080 shifting

initial focus to 89.442. The break of 89.442 has lacked follow through but bears

now shift focus to retests of 2018 lows. The 21-DMA is initial resistance with

bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure. A close above 91.011

remains needed to initially pressure 91.751.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 3.041

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.936 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.875 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.842 - Low Mar 7 

*SUP 2: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 3: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Bears have so far failed to

capitalise on last week's sell-off with the yield bouncing from ahead of key

supports. Bears look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift

focus back to 2.609-696 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above

2.957 to reconfirm focus on 3.041.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 2: $62.78 - Hourly resistance Mar 6 

*RES 1: $61.65 - Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance

*PRICE: $61.30 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.58 - Low Mar 7 

*SUP 2: $60.13 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: $59.48 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $59.24 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to chop around 21 & 55-DMAs this week with

follow through lacking in both directions. Layers of support remain $59.24-60.13

where the daily bull channel base and 100-DMA are noted. Bears need a close

below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to $53.30-55.37 with below $57.90 to

confirm. Bulls look for a close above $64.24 to hint at a move back to $66.39-65

and above $64.97 to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Failure Weighing

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 2: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1340.7 - High Feb 26

*PRICE: $1327.8 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1301.7 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1288.4 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 21-DMA has been brief with the correction

lower Wednesday leaving gold looking a little heavy. Bears now look for a close

below $1312.9 to confirm a return in focus to $1288.12-1302.5 where 100 &

200-DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1351.3 to

initially focus on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Daily studies are

well placed for gains.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]