MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2340

*RES 4: $1.2639 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2475 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*PRICE: $1.2378 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2340 Hourly support Mar 13a 

*SUP 2: $1.2313 Low Mar 13 

*SUP 3: $1.2273 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2271 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: The pair stalled on approach to the weekly bear channel top

($1.2639) off 2008 highs in past weeks. Bulls take comfort in support emerging

on dips back towards the 55-DMA with the closes above $1.2364 shifting initial

focus to $1.2446 and bulls needing a close above to reconfirm focus on

$1.2555-1.2639 where 2018 highs and the LT bear channel top are situated. Bears

need a close below $1.2340 to see focus back on the 55-DMA.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Target $1.4150 While 21-DMA Supports

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4069 High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1.3997 High Feb 27

*PRICE: $1.3981 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3959 Hourly support Mar 14 

*SUP 2: $1.3918 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3775 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3836 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above $1.3940 confirmed a break of the 21-DMA ($1.3918)

with bullish focus shifting to tests of the $1.4150 resistance. Daily studies

are well placed for gains although the Bollinger top at $1.4089 may limit follow

through. Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish

pressure and below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to $1.3710-54 where Mar lows

so far are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y107.29 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.52 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y106.75 High Mar 14

*PRICE: Y106.02 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on the break of the bear channel top off

2018 highs and Y107.19. The pair remains heavy with bears initially focused on

2018 lows with overall focus on Y98.95-101.15. Bolli bands narrow which hints at

a break out in the near future. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y107.29

to confirm a break of the bear channel top and shift initial focus to Y108.03-42

with above this region to hint at a move back to Y109.79-110.47.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y130.49 Initially Pressures 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 3: Y132.84 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 1: Y131.93 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*PRICE: Y131.23 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.95 Low Mar 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.49 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: Y129.53 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on closes above 21 (Y131.45) & 200

(Y131.66) DMAs with pair looking a little offered as a resulted. The Y130.49

support is key with bears needing a close below to shift initial focus back to

Y129.33-53 where 2018 lows and the 200-WMA are situated. Layers of resistance

remain a concern for bulls who now look for a close above Y132.44 to reconfirm

focus on Y133.05-134.16 where 55 (Y133.67) & 100 (Y133.34) DMAs are situated.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8892 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8865 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8854 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8845 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8769 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Monthly Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs continues to find support

around the 55-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to shift

focus back to Gbp0.8685-0.8769 where monthly and 2018 lows are noted. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. The Gbp0.8904 resistance remains

key. Bulls need a close above to confirm a break of the 200-DMA, gain breathing

room and return initial focus to 2018 highs and overall focus to Gbp0.9013-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of Falling TL Off 2018 High Again

*RES 4: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 3: $0.7944 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $0.7935 - High Feb 19

*RES 1: $0.7912 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*PRICE: $0.7880 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7838 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7775 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Breaks of the 55-DMA ($0.7891) have lacked follow through with the

pair again rejected ahead of the falling daily TL off 2018 highs. Bulls look for

a close above $0.7935 to confirm a break of the TL and above $0.7989 to shift

overall focus to $0.8135-62 where 2015 & 2018 highs are situated. Bears continue

to look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below the

100-DMA to return pressure to $0.7694-0.7710.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 89.407 To Target 2018 Lows

*RES 4: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 3: 90.256 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 90.187 - High Mar 12 

*RES 1: 89.891 - High Mar 14

*PRICE: 89.661 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.904 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA took its toll with bulls now needing

a close above 90.420 to confirm a break and shift initial focus to 91.011. A

close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751-862 where the 100-DMA is noted.

The 89.407 support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm

traction below the 21-DMA (89.797), ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back

to 88.253 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2.758-793

*RES 4: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 3: 2.883 - High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.857 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: 2.826 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.804 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 4: 2.722 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The yield remains heavy with the recovery from 2.793 over and focus

back on the 2.758-793 support region. Bears continue to look for a close below

2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.696-722 where the

55-DMA is noted. Overall focus shifts to 2.609-648. The Bollinger base (2.806)

is the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 2.883 to gain

breathing room and above 2.925 to regain the upper hand.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Hesitating Around 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 3: $62.22 - High Mar 12 

*RES 2: $62.08 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $61.34 - High Mar 14

*PRICE: $61.20 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.18 - Low Mar 14 

*SUP 2: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: $59.50 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.18 - High Feb 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing from the $59.18-91 support region last week where

the 100-DMA and bull channel base ($59.56) are located, failure to gain traction

above the 55-DMA is a concern for bulls who are focused on $63.05-64.07 this

week. Overall a close above $64.07 remains needed to return focus to

$66.02-68.21. Bears need a close below $59.18 to hint at a move back to

$54.10-55.90 with below $57.60 to confirm.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressure Remains On 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1330.0 - High Mar 14

*PRICE: $1326.5 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.5 - Low Mar 14 

*SUP 2: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1303.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Bounces from $1312.9 see gold pressuring the 21-DMA ($1328.2) with

Wednesday's pop above lacking follow through. Bulls now look for a close above

$1330.0 to confirm a break and gain breathing room whereas a close above $1351.3

remains needed to initially focus on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted.

Bears need a close below $1312.9 to return focus to $1289.5-1303.9 where 100 &

200-DMAs are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]