MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Layers Of Resistance $1.2378-1.2443

*RES 4: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 3: $1.2414 High Mar 14

*RES 2: $1.2384 High Mar 15

*RES 1: $1.2378 Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: $1.2336 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2301 Hourly support Mar 19 

*SUP 2: $1.2241 High Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2217 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair is lacking follow through on dips below the 55-DMA

($1.2288), bouncing from ahead of $1.2241 Monday. Layers of resistance

$1.2378-1.2446 are now key. Bulls need a close above $1.2446 to target

$1.2555-1.2639. Initial support is noted at $1.2301 but it's the $1.2241 support

that remains key. Bears look for a close below $1.2241 to target the key

$1.2092-1.2153 support region.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3997

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4150 Low Feb 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.4087 High Mar 19 

*RES 1: $1.4059 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1.4026 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3997 High Feb 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3951 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.3899 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3840 Low Mar 12

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA supported last week and has provided the base for a

break of $1.3997 that sees immediate focus on $1.4150 and overall focus on

$1.4286-1.4349 where 2018 highs are located. The Bollinger top is the key

concern for bulls and limits follow through. Bears now need a close below

$1.3997 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.3840 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA and return focus to $1.3710.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.75-107.29 Resistance Region To Watch

*RES 4: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 2: Y106.51 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y106.40 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*PRICE: Y106.31 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.60 Low Mar 16 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Despite remaining capped ahead of the 21-DMA downside follow

through has been lacking with support emerging ahead of 2018 lows and the

Bollinger band base (Y105.52). In saying that, bulls continue to look for a

close above Y106.75 to ease bearish pressure and above Y107.29 to shift focus to

Y108.03-42. Bears need a close below Y105.22 2018 lows to reconfirm overall

focus on Y99.08-101.15. Daily studies remain largely neutral.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y130.42 Today

*RES 4: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y131.77 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.29 Hourly resistance Mar 15a

*PRICE: Y131.18 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.42 Hourly support Mar 19 

*SUP 2: Y129.92 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y129.49 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards 2018

lows with the Bollinger band base limiting follow through. Bulls now need a

close above Y131.29 to gain breathing room. Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs

are situated remain key with bulls needing a close above to target 2018 highs.

Bears now look for a close below Y130.42 to ease renewed bullish pressure and

below the 55-WMA (Y129.08) to target Y125.80-127.54.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8841-0.8904 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Gbp0.8893 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8874 High Mar 15 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8841 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8818 High Mar 19

*PRICE: Gbp0.8795 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8766 Hourly resistance Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8742 Low Mar 19 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8730 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8714 Monthly Low Feb 1

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Monday's sell-off is less than ideal

with the Bollinger base (Gbp0.8761) the key concern. Layers of resistance

accumulating add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above the

55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above Gbp0.8904 to confirm a break of the

200-DMA, retuning initial focus to 2018 highs and overall focus to Gbp0.9013-48.

     AUSSIE TECHS: 2018 Lows Lack Follow Through

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7804 - 200-DMA, Hourly resistance Mar 16a

*RES 2: $0.7776 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7736 - Hourly resistance Mar 16

*PRICE: $0.7707 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7684 - 2018 Low Mar 19 

*SUP 2: $0.7626 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7572 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 4mth lows lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger band base ($0.7698). Bulls now need a close above $0.7736 to gain

breathing room and above the 200-DMA to shift focus back to $0.7842-0.7935 where

the falling TL off 2018 highs is noted. While $0.7736 caps bears remain focused

on tests of $0.7572-80 where Dec lows and the Bull channel base off 2016 lows

are situated with below $0.7684 to add weigh to their case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.407 & 90.420 Levels Key

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.493 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 1: 90.077 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 89.901 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 89.561 - Low Mar 14

*SUP 2: 89.440 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 89.407-90.420 continues and sees Bollinger bands

narrowing and hinting at a breakout in near future. Bulls need a close above

90.420 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (90.142) and shift initial focus to

91.011. Bears still need a close below 89.407 to confirm traction below the

21-DMA (89.967), ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to 88.253 2018

lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.883-2.957 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.932 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 1: 2.883 - High Mar 13

*PRICE: 2.857 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.830 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The 2.758-793 support remains key and reconfirmed significance with

the correction from 2.914 finding support ahead of this region. Bears need a

close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.696

although the 55-DMA (2.745) may slow the move. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 2.883 to gain breathing room with a close above 2.957 2018 highs to

shift focus back to tests of 3.041 2014 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Above $64.07 To Target 2018 High 

*RES 4: $64.07 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.64 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 1: $62.46 - Falling daily TL off Feb 2 high

*PRICE: $62.35 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $61.90 - Hourly support Mar 19 

*SUP 2: $61.45 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 3: $60.86 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: $60.18 - Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the key $59.18-91 support

region provided the impetus for a close above 21 & 55-DMAs Friday with focus on

$63.05-64.07. Bulls need a close above $64.07 to return focus to 2018 highs with

the Bollinger band top their key concern. Bears now need a close below $61.45 to

ease bullish pressure and below $59.18 to hint at a move back to $54.10-55.90

with below $57.60 to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Narrowing Bollinger Bands Ringing Alarm Bells

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: $1321.7 - High Mar 16

*PRICE: $1316.2 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $1314.6 - Hourly resistance Mar 16 now support 

*SUP 2: $1307.5 - Low Mar 16 

*SUP 3: $1305.0 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA is less than

ideal with narrowing Bollis hinting at a break out. In saying that, bulls need a

close above $1321.7 to ease bearish pressure and above $1330.0 to confirm breaks

of 21 ($1322.9) & 55 ($1329.4) DMAs, shifting focus to $1340.7-1351.3. Bears

need a close below $1302.5 to hint at a move back to $1235.9 and below the

200-DMA to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]