MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2476 To Target $1.2555-1.2611

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 2: $1.2431 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $1.2395 High Apr 11

*PRICE: $1.2364 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2325 Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2209 Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dips below the bull channel base sees

closes above the 55-DMA ($1.2338) with bulls now looking for a close above

$1.2477 to confirm a return in focus to $1.2555-1.2611 where the LT bear channel

top off 2018 highs is located. Support layers accumulating is a concern for

bears. Initial support is noted at $1.2325 but bears need a close below $1.2290

to return focus to $1.2153-1.2209.

     CABLE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1.4286 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: $1.4243 200-WMA, Monthly High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1.4238 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $1.4222 High Apr 11

*PRICE: $1.4180 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4145 Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1.4104 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.4068 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.4026 Hourly resistance Apr 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction below the 55-DMA ($1.4003) last

week despite dips below and has worked its way back towards the 200-WMA and the

$1.4243-1.4349 resistance as a while. Bulls need a weekly close above this

region to target $1.5018 2016 highs. Bears now need a close below $1.4104 to

ease bullish pressure and target a correction back to the $1.3873-1.3963 support

region.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y109.49 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y106.89 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: Y106.30 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA Thursday

with the sell-off providing bears breathing room. A close below the 21-DMA is

needed to shift initial focus back to Y105.29. The Y107.49 resistance is key.

Bulls need a close above to reconfirm focus on Y108.03-42 with a close above

this region to target Y109.29-110.54 where key DMA and WMAs are situated. The

Bollinger top (Y107.65) is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.06 100-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.61 High Apr 10

*PRICE: Y132.17 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.99 High Apr 9 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 3: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y129.61 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on the close above 55 &

200-DMAs despite immediate focus on the 21-WMA and 100-DMA. Bulls still need a

close above these MAs to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to 2018

highs. The Bollinger top (Y132.47) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now look

for a close below Y131.99 to ease bullish pressure and below Y130.82 to confirm

a break of the 21-DMA (Y130.96) and shift initial focus back to Y128.94-129.96.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Gbp0.8749

*RES 4: Gbp0.8810 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8797 High Mar 27 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8749 Hourly resistance Apr 6 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8748 21-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8716 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8690 Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8671 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8667 2018 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8599 Low May 24 2017

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows was capped ahead of key DMAs and focus

back on Gbp0.8667-71 where the 100-WMA is noted. A close below the 100-WMA was

last seen in Jan 2016. Bears need a close below 2018 lows to confirm a break and

target Gbp0.8313. While the 100-WMA supports bulls target 2018 highs but need a

close above Gbp0.8749 to gain breathing room and above the 100-DMA to add

support to their case and shift initial focus to Gbp0.8874-0.8904.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7842 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7813 - 200-DMA, 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7787 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*PRICE: $0.7753 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7709 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 3: $0.7635 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7630 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair gains traction above the 21-DMA with

focus on $0.7781-0.7842 where key WMA and DMAs and the falling TL off 2018 highs

are found. Bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish hopes and shift

initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Bears need a

close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7630 to confirm a

break of the 100-WMA and reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 90.967 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.970 - High Apr 10

*PRICE: 89.534 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.178 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Follow through on breaks of recent ranges remains lacking with the

topside break failure now seeing closes below the 55-DMA (89.770) and immediate

focus back on the 88.942 support. Below this level initially targets 2018 lows.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now look for a close

above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above 90.597 to shift immediate focus to

90.967-91.011 where the 100-DMA is found.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.859 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 2: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 1: 2.838 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: 2.781 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 2: 2.726 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The yield continues to trade below 21 (2.809) & 55 (2.822) DMAs,

although follow through has been lacking, with bears now needing a close below

2.748 to add weight to the case for a test of 2.609-650 where the 100-DMA

(2.650) is found. The 2.859 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close

above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018 highs. Daily studies are now back

at neutral levels.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On $69.04-73.25 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $69.04 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $67.38 - 2018 High Apr 11 (Cont)

*PRICE: $67.00 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $66.33 - Hourly resistance Apr 11 now support 

*SUP 2: $65.68 - Hourly support Apr 11 

*SUP 3: $65.09 - Low Apr 11 

*SUP 4: $64.35 - Hourly support Apr 10

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to start the new week has resulted in aggressive rallies

resulting in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Wednesday and bulls now targeting

$69.04-73.25. Daily studies are perfectly placed for a fresh leg higher but the

Bollinger band top ($67.25) is a concern. Bears now look for a close below

$65.09 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA ($63.92) to shift focus back

to $61.12-81 where the 100-DMA is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1342.6

*RES 4: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 3 2014 

*RES 3: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 2: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 1: $1366.0 - 2018 High Jan 25

*PRICE: $1351.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 2: $1342.6 - High Apr 10 now support 

*SUP 3: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 4: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9

*COMMENTARY: The $1318.3 support confirmed significance last week with the

recovery falling just short of the 2018 high. Focus now remains on the

$1366.0-1391.8 region where 2018, 2016 & 2014 highs are located. The Bollinger

top ($1357.5) is the key concern for bulls and currently limits follow through.

Bears now look for a close below $1342.6 to ease bullish pressure and return

focus to $1313.7-1330.9 where key DMAs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]