MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

1 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2312 Hourly support Apr 20 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2248 Low Apr 20 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2225 100-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2075 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 

*SUP 2: $1.2021 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.2013 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the $1.2092 weekly

support resulted in a bounce back towards initial resistance Friday. O/S daily

studies are seen as a key concern for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close

above $1.2144 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA ($1.2307) to shift

focus back to $1.2389-1.2476 where the bear channel top is noted. While $1.2144

caps bears look for a close below the 200-DMA initially target $1.1914.

     CABLE TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Key Concern

*RES 4: $1.3997 High Apr 26 

*RES 3: $1.3939 High Apr 27 

*RES 2: $1.3893 Low Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3810 Hourly resistance Apr 27

*PRICE: $1.3759 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3710 Monthly Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3656 Monthly High Sept 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3612 High Jan 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs sees pressure on the weekly

bull channel base ($1.3686) off Mar lows and the $1.3656-1.3710 support region.

Bears look for a close below $1.3656 to confirm a break and shift immediate

focus to the 55-WMA ($1.3373 and overall focus to $1.2995-1.3086 where the

100-WMA is found. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3893 to ease

bearish pressure and above $1.4031 to hint at a move back to 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.54-97 Support Region Key Today

*RES 4: Y110.46 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: Y110.23 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y109.79 High Feb 8 

*RES 1: Y109.48 100-WMA

*PRICE: Y109.37 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25 

*SUP 2: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around WMAs & DMAs Y109.48-110.47 is a concern for bulls

with the lack of follow through beginning to weigh. Bears continue to look for a

close below Y108.54 to shift focus back to Y106.57-107.85 where the 21 (Y107.77)

& 55 (Y106.88) DMAs are situated. The Bollinger top (Y109.77) remains a key

concern for bulls. In saying that, bulls need a close above the 100-WMA to gain

breathing room this week.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 3: Y133.48 High Apr 24

*RES 2: Y133.35 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*PRICE: Y132.09 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.85 Low Apr 30 

*SUP 2: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 

*SUP 3: Y131.55 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y131.05 Low Apr 5

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 100-DMA (Y132.99) & 21-WMA (Y132.85)

remains lacking with focus back on Y131.55-78 as daily studies correct from O/B.

Bears need a close below Y131.05 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to

shift focus to Y128.94-130.43 where 55 (Y130.43) & 200 (Y129.27) WMAs are noted.

Bulls now look for a close above Y132.54 to gain breathing room and above

Y134.16 to confirm focus on 2018 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8879 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8830 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8798 Hourly resistance Apr 30

*PRICE: Gbp0.8775 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8723 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the aggressive rejection around the 55-WMA to

start the new week but now look for a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus back

to Gbp0.8664-78. The lack of topside follow through has left the pair looking

heavy with bulls now needing a close above Gbp0.8798 to gain breathing room and

above the 55-WMA to shift initial focus to the 200-DMA and overall focus to

Gbp0.8967-81. The Bollinger top (Gbp0.8809) remains a concern.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7648

*RES 4: $0.7702 - Hourly resistance Apr 20

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*PRICE: $0.7541 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7522 - 2018 Low Apr 30 

*SUP 2: $0.7498 - Monthly Low Dec 8 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on $0.7498 Dec lows. O/S daily studies and

the Bolli base ($0.7507) are concerns. Bears look for a close below $0.7498 to

confirm traction below the LT bull channel base and initially target $0.7326 May

2017 lows. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to the bearish case with

bulls needing a close above $0.7648 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7735

to shift focus back to $0.7803-42 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Capping

*RES 4: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9 

*RES 3: 91.978 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 91.954 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 91.933 - Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 high

*PRICE: 91.852 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 2: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*SUP 3: 90.935 - Hourly support Apr 25

*SUP 4: 90.622 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The index is now hesitating ahead of the 200-DMA. Bulls still need

a close above the 200-DMA to target 92.625-997 where 2018 highs are situated.

Layers of support added to bullish confidence but very O/B daily studies are now

a concern. In saying that, bears now need a close below 91.320 to gain breathing

room and below 90.935 to shift focus initial focus back to 90.483-622 where the

100-DMA is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.988 - High Apr 27

*PRICE: 2.953 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.934 - Low Apr 30 

*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (3.039). The

close below 3.007 initially targets a correction to 2.925. Below 2.925 is needed

to shift initial focus back to 2.814-876 where 21 (2.876) & 55 (2.863) DMAs are

situated. Bulls look for a close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the

weekly bull channel top is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) $67.11 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $71.20 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $70.78 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 

*RES 1: $69.34 - High Apr 30

*PRICE: $68.73 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $67.11 - Low Apr 25 

*SUP 2: $66.54 - Low Apr 18 

*SUP 3: $66.58 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are a concern for bulls when

combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the

Bollinger top. Bears look for a close below $67.11 to gain breathing room and

below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus to $65.09-59. Bulls need a close above

$69.55 to reconfirm focus on $71.20-73.25 where the MT bull channel top is

noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1302.5 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: $1339.3 - Hourly resistance Apr 20 

*RES 3: $1333.2 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 1: $1326.6 - High Apr 16

*PRICE: $1312.6 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1310.1 - Low Apr 30 

*SUP 2: $1306.9 - Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1303.9 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Monthly Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Bears focus on $1302.5-1306.9 where the 200-DMA & 2018 lows are

noted. Bears need a close below $1302.5 to hint at a move back to the 200-WMA

($1234.6) and Dec low ($1235.9) with below the 55-WMA ($1291.6) to confirm.

Bulls need a close above $1326.7 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to

shift initial focus back to $1355.1-1366.1. O/S daily studies remain the key

concern for bears.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]