MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Closes Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2226 100-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2014 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2002 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1807 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 200-DMA, the first since April 2017 adds weight

to the bearish case with immediate focus on $1.1914 2018 lows and overall focus

now on $1.1807-15 where the 55-WMA is noted. O/S studies looking to correct

remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $1.2053 to gain

breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to key DMAs $1.2226-97.

     CABLE TECHS: Focus Now On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $1.3893 Low Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3877 100-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3792 High Apr 30

*RES 1: $1.3711 Low Apr 30 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3613 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3586 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1.3534 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3456 2018 Low Jan 11 

*SUP 4: $1.3371 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs has resulted in traction below

the weekly bull channel base ($1.3686) off Mar lows with immediate focus now on

the 200-DMA and 2018 lows. Bears now look for a close below $1.3456 to target

$1.2995-1.3032. O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a

close above $1.3711 to gain breathing room and above $1.3792 to shift initial

focus to $1.3877-1.4026.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On Y110.22-49

*RES 4: Y111.48 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y110.61 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: Y110.49 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Y110.22 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.70 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.48 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 100-WMA with immediate

bullish focus on Y110.22-49 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls need

a close above the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.48-98. O/B studies remain the

key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below the 100-WMA to gain

breathing room and hint at a correction back to Y108.54-97 where the 100-DMA

(Y108.78) is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: Y133.48 High Apr 24

*RES 3: Y133.25 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 1: Y132.23 Hourly resistance Apr 30

*PRICE: Y131.72 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.52 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y131.05 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 3: Y130.43 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.27 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance having provided support Monday on

the sell-off from failures above the 100-DMA (Y132.97) & 21-WMA (Y132.84). Bears

need a close below Y131.05 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to shift

focus to Y128.94-130.43 where 55 & 200-WMAs are noted. Bulls continue to look

for a close above Y132.54 to gain breathing room and above Y134.16 to confirm

focus on 2018 highs.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8878 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8830 55-WMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8818 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8752 Hourly support Apr 27 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8729 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Support now emerging on dips is a concern for bears with focus

currently on the 55-WMA. Bulls need a close above the 55-WMA to hint at a move

back to 2018 highs with above the 200-DMA to confirm. Daily studies lingering at

O/B levels is a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a close below

Gbp0.8752 to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

Gbp0.8664-78.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Closes Below Key Support

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7522 - Low May 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7503 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & nearly 12 month lows following the close below $0.7498

left the pair looking heavy and bears now focused on $0.7326. Bears now look for

a close below this level to then target $0.7142 Dec 2016 monthly lows. O/S

studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.7522

to gain breathing room and above $0.7590 to initially pressure the $0.7648

resistance level with the 21-DMA ($0.7664) lurking above.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused On 92.640-93.282

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.280 - 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9

*PRICE: 92.347 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 91.972 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 3: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*SUP 4: 90.935 - Hourly support Apr 25

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA has taken its toll with an aggressive rally

that sees immediate focus on 92.640-93.280 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B

studies remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support accumulate. Bears

now need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below 91.426 to

shift focus back to 90.036-611 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 3.073 To Target 3.183-223

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 3.035 - 2018 High Apr 25 

*RES 2: 3.018 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.988 - High Apr 27

*PRICE: 2.974 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.934 - Low Apr 30 

*SUP 2: 2.925 - Hourly support Apr 20 

*SUP 3: 2.904 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 4: 2.876 - High Apr 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2014 highs & 3.041-073 is a concern given daily

studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (3.049). The

close below 3.007 initially targets a correction to 2.925. Below 2.925 is needed

to shift initial focus back to 2.814-887 where 21 (2.887) & 55 (2.866) DMAs are

situated. Bulls look for a close above 3.073 to shift focus 3.183-223 where the

weekly bull channel top is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 

*RES 3: $69.34 - High Apr 30 

*RES 2: $68.90 - High May 1 

*RES 1: $68.09 - Hourly resistance May 1

*PRICE: $67.56 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $66.70 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $65.09 - Low Apr 11 

*SUP 3: $64.10 - High Apr 5 now support 

*SUP 4: $63.75 - Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are a concern for bulls when

combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the

Bollinger top. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to add weight to the

case for a correction back to $63.75-64.10 where the 55-DMA ($63.91) is noted.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on

$71.28-73.25 where the MT bull channel top is situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1310.1

*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $1331.7 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1326.6 - High Apr 16 

*RES 1: $1310.1 - Low Apr 30 now resistance

*PRICE: $1310.0 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1291.6 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1277.2 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5 month lows see gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1304.2) and focus now on the 55-WMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-WMA

to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.6) and Dec low

($1235.9). Bulls now need a close above $1310.1 to gain breathing room and hint

at a correction back to $1326.6-1332.6 where the 55 & 21-DMAs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]