MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1.1670

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1730 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 2: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA was less than

ideal for bulls. The $1.1889-1.1924 region where the 55-WMA ($1.1924) is noted

is key. Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to shift initial focus to

$1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.2008) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs are found. Bears now

look for a close below $1.1670 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below

$1.1589 to pressure 2018 lows.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-WMA

*RES 4: $1.3379 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3362 High July 9 

*RES 2: $1.3325 Hourly support July 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3300 High July 10

*PRICE: $1.3261 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3228 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3188 Low July 9 

*SUP 3: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 4: $1.3092 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.3314 resistance lacked follow through with

the move aggressively rejected ahead of the 55-DMA Monday. Bears now need a

close below $1.3188 to reconfirm focus on $1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are

noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-WMA ($1.3456) to shift

initial focus to $1.3586-1.3711 where 100 ($1.3668) & 200 ($1.3586) DMAs are

located. The Bollinger top is noted at $1.3358 and is the key concern for bulls.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y109.95 To Confirm Breaks Of Key Supports

*RES 4: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 1: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21

*PRICE: Y111.08 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.75 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: Y110.45 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y110.11 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.95 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The significance of Y111.39-112.04 where May highs are noted has

been reconfirmed with the pair stalling at this region. Bulls look for a close

above Y112.04 to end bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.24-44 where

the 200-WMA (Y113.23) is noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now

need a close below Y110.75 to gain breathing room and below Y109.95 to confirm a

break of the bull channel base (Y110.43) off 2018 lows, 55 & 200-DMAs, and

return pressure to Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets

Y107.85-108.46.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y129.83

*RES 4: Y131.93 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.47 55-WMA

*RES 2: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 1: Y130.74 High July 10

*PRICE: Y130.30 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.32 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.40 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to layers of resistance took its toll with the

pair breaking above the 100-DMA (Y130.24) and Y130.34 resistance. The lack of

topside follow through is less than ideal as is the failure to close above

Y130.34. In saying that, bullish focus has now shifted to Y131.37-93 where the

55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. Daily studies at O/B levels are the key concern

for bulls. Bears now look for a close below Y129.83 to gain breathing room and

below the 55-DMA to shift immediate pressure back to Y128.40.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8779 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8842 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8810 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support and provided the base for a rally

that stalled just short of the Gbp0.8904 resistance Monday. Bulls need a close

above this level to shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger

top is noted at Gbp0.8885 and continues to limit follow through. The Gbp0.8779

support remains key. Below Gbp0.8779 is needed to confirm breaks of 55

(Gbp0.8787), 100 (Gbp0.8784) & 21-DMAs, shifting focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7497 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 1: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7416 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7404 - Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA is a concern for bulls and resulted

in a dip below the 21-DMA ($0.7412). Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure and to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

Bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.7607-0.7735

where 100 ($0.7607) & 200 ($0.7689) DMAs are located with above $0.7552

confirming. Daily studies approaching O/B is now an issue for bulls.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 95.524 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 95.141 - High July 2 

*RES 2: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance 

*RES 1: 94.619 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 94.242 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.018 - Low July 10

*SUP 2: 93.796 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 100-WMA (95.524) to target 96.617. Bears take comfort in the 21-DMA

capping which retains pressure on the 55-DMA and focus on a break of 93.193

needed to pressure 100 (92.077) & 200 (92.252) DMAs. Bulls now need a close

above 94.728 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and gain breathing room, returning

pressure to 95.140-531.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.847 - Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.844 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.825 - Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted. The Bollinger base and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears

and limit follow through. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.884 to gain

breathing room and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and

pressure the key 3.014-050 resistance region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.14 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $75.96 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3 

*RES 2: $74.90 - High July 4 

*RES 1: $73.65 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $73.56 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $72.99 - Low July 9 

*SUP 2: $72.14 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $70.91 - High June 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs last week remained capped ahead of daily

and weekly bull channel tops. Correcting very O/B daily studies remain key

concerns for bulls and limit follow through. Below $72.14 remains needed to hint

at a move back to $69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their

case. While $72.14 supports bulls retain an advantage with focus remaining on

bull channel tops $75.96-76.32.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1263.6-1272.6 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 3: $1272.6 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: $1263.6 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1260.2 - High July 10

*PRICE: $1250.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1246.8 - Low July 10 

*SUP 2: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 3: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through last week with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA ($1234.0). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of

key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls now need a close above the

21-DMA to return initial focus to $1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted and above

the 100-WMA to target $1284.0-1292.1.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]