MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Returns To $1.1506-89

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1688 Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1678 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1647 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA was less than

ideal for bulls and now sees pressure on the 21-DMA as the euro remains offered.

Bears now shift focus back to the $1.1506-89 support region with below the

21-DMA to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above $1.1790 to

confirm traction above the 55-DMA and above the 55-WMA ($1.1922) to shift

initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.2001) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs are

found.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3188

*RES 4: $1.3362 High July 9 

*RES 3: $1.3325 Hourly support July 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 1: $1.3225 Hourly resistance July 11

*PRICE: $1.3200 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3188 Low July 9 

*SUP 2: $1.3154 Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 3: $1.3092 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.3048 2018 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.3314 resistance lacked follow through with

the move aggressively rejected ahead of the 55-DMA Monday. Bears need a close

below $1.3188 to reconfirm focus on $1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are noted.

Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-WMA ($1.3455) to shift initial

focus to $1.3586-1.3711 where 100 ($1.3660) & 200 ($1.3586) DMAs are located.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.39 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.24 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.26 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 3: Y110.75 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y110.59 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs has provided the base for

continued fresh 7mth highs with initial bullish focus now shifting to the

Y113.24-74 region where 2018 & Dec highs are located. Daily studies approaching

O/B are the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y111.39 to ease

bullish pressure and below Y109.95 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 200-DMAs and

hint at a move back to Y108.56-109.01 where the 100-DMA is located.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.83 Support Now Key

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24

*RES 3: Y131.93 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.49 55-WMA

*RES 1: Y131.37 High May 14

*PRICE: Y131.11 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.64 Hourly support July 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 4: Y129.31 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to layers of resistance took its toll with the

pair breaking above the 100-DMA (Y130.24) and Y130.34 resistance. Bulls take

comfort as the pair gains topside traction and focus on Y131.37-93 where the

55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. Daily studies at O/B levels are the key concern

for bulls. Bears now look for a close below Y130.35 to gain breathing room and

below Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA to

confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8779 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8834 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8811 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support and provided the base for a rally

that stalled just short of the Gbp0.8904 resistance Monday. Bulls need a close

above this level to shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger

top is noted at Gbp0.8887 and recently limited follow through. The Gbp0.8779

support remains key. Below Gbp0.8779 is needed to confirm breaks of 55

(Gbp0.8789), 100 (Gbp0.8784) & 21-DMAs, shifting focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 3: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly resistance July 11

*RES 1: $0.7399 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7379 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7320 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 21-DMA reconfirms immediate focus on 2018 lows.

Bears look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to tests of $0.7142 2017

lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance

have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a

close above $0.7415 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a

move back to $0.7602-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7602) & 200 ($0.7687) DMAs are located

with above $0.7552 confirming.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.530 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.399 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 95.141 - High July 2

*PRICE: 94.739 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.486 - High July 6 now support

*SUP 2: 94.018 - Low July 10

*SUP 3: 93.864 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from

the 55-DMA but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.530) to target

96.617. Bears now look for a close below 94.486 to gain breathing room and below

the 55-DMA to confirm initial focus on 92.837-93.193 and hint at a move back to

100 (92.133) & 200 (92.262) DMAs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 

*RES 1: 2.875 - High July 10

*PRICE: 2.852 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.825 - Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are

noted with a close below 2.807 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base

(2.798) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears and limit follow

through. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room

and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key

3.014-050 resistance region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Below 55-DMA To Target 100-DMA

*RES 4: $72.98 - Monthly High July 10 

*RES 3: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: $69.93 - Low July 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $69.53 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $68.79 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $68.37 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $67.76 - High June 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $66.77 - Low June 25

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $73.00 has taken its toll for U18 with the

sharp sell-off seeing pressure on the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a close below

$67.76 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $65.69-66.77

where the 100-DMA is noted. Layers of resistance building and correcting O/B

studies are weighing. Bulls now need a close above $69.93 to gain breathing room

and above $71.13 to shift focus back to $72.08-98.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressuring LT Rising TL Off 2015 Low

*RES 4: $1272.6 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.5 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 1: $1246.8 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1243.7 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1241.2 - LT Rising TL off 2015 low 

*SUP 2: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with pressure returning to the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below the

200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls still need a close above

the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to $1272.6 where

the 100-WMA is noted and above the 100-WMA to target $1284.0-1292.1.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]