MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1652 & $1.1765 Levels Now Key

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1733 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1717 High July 24 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1652 Low July 24 

*SUP 3: $1.1625 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1572 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1765 resistance reconfirmed significance with it capping to

start the new week. Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above

the 55-DMA ($1.1698), easing of bearish pressure, and shifting initial focus to

$1.1854. Key MAs are noted $1.1934-1.1978 with bulls needing a close above

$1.1996 to confirm breaks and initially target $1.2153. Bears now need a close

below $1.1652 to return immediate focus to 2018 lows.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3362 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.3362 High July 9 

*RES 3: $1.3318 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 1: $1.3282 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3202 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3177 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.3126 Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 3: $1.3069 Low July 24 

*SUP 4: $1.3050 Hourly resistance July 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.2995 support last week lacked follow

through with bulls taking comfort in the recovery Friday. Bulls look for a close

above $1.3203 to confirm traction above the 21-DMA and bear channel top

($1.3159), easing bearish pressure. The $1.3362 resistance remains key. Bulls

need a close above this level to confirm traction above the 55-DMA ($1.3282) and

shift initial focus to $1.3446. Initial support is now noted at the 21-DMA but

bears look for a close below $1.3126 to return initial focus to $1.3050-69 and

overall focus to 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.95

*RES 4: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 3: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.90 Hourly resistance July 20 

*RES 1: Y111.54 High July 23

*PRICE: Y110.78 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.65 Low July 25 

*SUP 2: Y110.51 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y110.09 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.95 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The break below the 21-DMA (Y111.38) and daily bull channel base

off 2018 lows initially lacked follow through with the pair bouncing from ahead

of the 55-DMA. Bears now need a close below Y109.95 to confirm breaks of 55 &

200-DMAs and pressure Y108.96-109.37 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls look for

a close above Y111.54 to gain breathing room and above Y111.90 to return focus

to Y113.26 where the 200-WMA is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.83 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.49 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 2: Y131.20 High July 20

*RES 1: Y130.46 Hourly resistance July 23

*PRICE: Y129.97 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.78 Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 2: Y129.29 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: Y128.16 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.54) last

week. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of

the 55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.58 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

The break of Y129.83 has so far lacked follow through with bears now needing a

close below the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus back to Y128.40. Bulls now need

a close above Y130.46 to gain breathing room and above Y131.20 to shift focus

back to the 200-DMA.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8940 Hourly resistance July 20 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8926 High July 24 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8908 Low July 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8884 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8870 Low July 25 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8865 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8818 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs has left the pair looking heavy with

focus on the Gbp0.8865-70 region today where the 21-DMA is noted. Bears still

need a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus to Gbp0.8779-0.8818 where 55, 100 &

200-DMAs are located. Correcting modestly O/B daily studies are currently seen

weighing. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8908 to gain breathing room and

above Gbp0.8926 to return pressure to the 2018 high.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7484 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7552 - Weekly Low June 4 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 1: $0.7474 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7438 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7389 - Low July 25 

*SUP 2: $0.7357 - Low July 24 

*SUP 3: $0.7334 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the

bounce to end last week that returned pressure to the $0.7442-84 resistance

region. Bulls still need a close above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

($0.7474) and hint at a move back to $0.7564-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7564) & 200

($0.7667) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. While $0.7484 caps

bears retain initial focus on retests of 2018 lows and now need a close below

$0.7434 to gain breathing room.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: 95.280 - High July 20 

*RES 3: 94.933 - Low July 19 now resistance 

*RES 2: 94.665 - High July 25 

*RES 1: 94.396 - Hourly resistance July 25

*PRICE: 94.169 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.713 - Low July 9

*SUP 2: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 3: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 4: 92.554 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 13mth highs lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger top last Thursday which sees the index flirting with the 55-DMA

(94.261). Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and below 93.713 to shift initial focus to 92.837-93.193. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 94.933 to gain breathing room and above the

100-WMA (95.515) to target 96.617.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 2: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 1: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13

*PRICE: 2.969 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.949 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.923 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.880 - Hourly support July 20

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce from

ahead of this level Wednesday reconfirming bullish focus on 3.014-084. Bulls

need a close above 3.084 to confirm initial focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs

are noted. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and

below 2.880 to shift initial focus back to 2.807.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 1: $69.87 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $69.37 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $69.19 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 2: $68.20 - Low July 25 

*SUP 3: $67.52 - Hourly support July 19 

*SUP 4: $67.21 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. In saying that, while the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the

$65.89-66.30 supports with a close below $68.20 needed to buy bears breathing

room.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1241.1 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1234.0 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1231.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1227.6 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 2: $1217.8 - Low July 24 

*SUP 3: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 4: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears took comfort in the topside failure around the 200-WMA to

start the new week although failure to trouble 2018 lows is less than ideal with

daily studies correcting from O/S. Bulls still need a close above $1236.6 to

gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to return initial focus to $1270.5-1272.6

where the 100-WMA is noted. Bears remain focused on $1204.6 while $1236.6 caps.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]