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MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – September 2023

EUROZONE

Starting To Separate The Signal From The Noise

  • September is expected to bring the first Y/Y eurozone HICP prints below 5% since November 2021 for headline, and for September 2022 for core.
  • With consensus of 4.5% Y/Y for HICP (5.2% Aug), and 4.8% for core (5.3% Aug), however, readings will remain well above the ECB’s target.
  • The next few months will play an essential role in the ECB’s path to 2% inflation, after a summer of significant “noise” distorting the “signal” when strong base effects from 2022, weighting changes, and atypical seasonal movements in core goods price categories all contributed to volatile readings.
  • While service sector inflation is seen to have peaked in the summer, that’s in large part due to the aforementioned one-off effects, with some analyst disagreement over whether strong wage growth will prevent further progress ahead.
  • Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, Italian, and Spanish national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.

PDF HERE

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