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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Fed Preview - June 2023: Analyst Outlook
MNI Fed Preview - June 2023: Analyst Outlook
Note to readers: This is an update to the full MNI Fed preview published on Friday June 9. Please see Page 30-36 of this document for sell-side analysts outlooks for the June 2023 FOMC meeting.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Of the 31 analyst previews of the June FOMC decision whose previews MNI have seen, all but two see a rate hold.
- Though several noted potential for Tuesday’s CPI data in particular to tilt the balance toward a hike, Citi and TD are alone in having a core view of a 25bp raise.
- Of 26 of those analysts who had explicit rate forecasts, 14 saw at least one more hike in this cycle (June included), while 12 believe the next move will be a cut. None expects >50bp of further hikes.
- The “median of medians” for the June update of the fed funds Dot Plot shows 5.4% for 2023 (up 25bp from Mar), 4.4% for 2024 (up 12.5bp from Mar), and 3.1% for 2025 (unch from Mar), with nobody expecting a change in the longer-run rate at 2.5%. However, expectations for the distribution of dots varies, especially for 2023. Changes to the economic projections are only expected to be limited.
- Our updated preview also looks at analyst expectations for changes to the Statement, including dissents and guidance language.
FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:
FedPrevJun2023-2 (inclAnalystSumm).pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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