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MNI Fed Preview - Sep 2023: Analyst Outlook

A minority of sell-side analysts expect a Fed hike beyond September, with focus turning to 2024 rate cuts.

Central Bank PreviewAnalysisFOMC Calendar Market NewsHomepageCommoditiesFed - PreviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

Note to readers: This is an update to the full MNI Fed preview published on Friday Sept 15. Please see Page 40-45 of this document for sell-side analysts outlooks for the July 2023 FOMC meeting.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Sell-side analysts are unanimously agreed that the FOMC will leave rates on hold at the September meeting, but there are divergences in views on the Dot Plot to be submitted this week, and on the Fed’s actual rate path.

  • Four analysts (of the 30 previews MNI read) see one further hike in this cycle: Barclays, BofA, Citi, Nordea.
  • All analysts expect cuts in 2024, with most seeing them starting in 1Q 2024.
  • The median of analysts’ expectations for the Fed’s September Dot Plot rates suggest that the central expectation is for no changes from June’s projections: 5.6% for 2023, 4.6% for 2024, 3.4% for 2025, with the new entry for 2026 at 2.6%, and the Longer-Run rate at 2.5%.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

FedPrevSep2023-ANALYSTS.pdf


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Note to readers: This is an update to the full MNI Fed preview published on Friday Sept 15. Please see Page 40-45 of this document for sell-side analysts outlooks for the July 2023 FOMC meeting.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Sell-side analysts are unanimously agreed that the FOMC will leave rates on hold at the September meeting, but there are divergences in views on the Dot Plot to be submitted this week, and on the Fed’s actual rate path.

  • Four analysts (of the 30 previews MNI read) see one further hike in this cycle: Barclays, BofA, Citi, Nordea.
  • All analysts expect cuts in 2024, with most seeing them starting in 1Q 2024.
  • The median of analysts’ expectations for the Fed’s September Dot Plot rates suggest that the central expectation is for no changes from June’s projections: 5.6% for 2023, 4.6% for 2024, 3.4% for 2025, with the new entry for 2026 at 2.6%, and the Longer-Run rate at 2.5%.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

FedPrevSep2023-ANALYSTS.pdf