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September Flash CPI Likely To Hit 10% Y/Y

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)
  • Following a slew of higher-than-anticipated state CPI data this morning, the implied German flash CPI print for September should be in the order of +1.9% m/m and +10.0% y/y. This is based on 88.1% of regional data available prior to the release.
  • This implies a hot beat on headline inflation, while consensus was looking for +9.5% y/y and +1.5% m/m.
  • Numerous regional reports highlighted the upward price pressure associated with the expiration of subventions including the 9-euro transport ticket and fuel rebate.
  • Markets are currently pricing in 71bp of tightening at the ECB's October meeting for the ECB's late October, with the latest German inflation data further supporting a 75bp hike.
  • Furthermore, the German government is set to announce an energy relief package at 1300 BST.
  • French, Italian and the Eurozone aggregate flash CPIs are due tomorrow morning.


Source: MNI / individual state sources

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