September 29, 2022 11:07 GMT
- Following a slew of higher-than-anticipated state CPI data this morning, the implied German flash CPI print for September should be in the order of +1.9% m/m and +10.0% y/y. This is based on 88.1% of regional data available prior to the release.
- This implies a hot beat on headline inflation, while consensus was looking for +9.5% y/y and +1.5% m/m.
- Numerous regional reports highlighted the upward price pressure associated with the expiration of subventions including the 9-euro transport ticket and fuel rebate.
- Markets are currently pricing in 71bp of tightening at the ECB's October meeting for the ECB's late October, with the latest German inflation data further supporting a 75bp hike.
- Furthermore, the German government is set to announce an energy relief package at 1300 BST.
- French, Italian and the Eurozone aggregate flash CPIs are due tomorrow morning.
Source: MNI / individual state sources
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