MNI FRANCE WATCH: Macron Facing Difficult Post-Holiday Return

--With Poll Numbers Falling, French President Weighs Shift in Communication

By Jack Duffy

     PARIS (MNI) - French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been compared to

the Roman god Jupiter during his first 100 days in office, will return from his

summer vacation next week much closer to earth.

     With his popularity ratings in free fall and crucial labour market reforms

pending that could unleash a new wave of protests and strikes across France this

fall, the 39-year old Macron is facing pressure to achieve results and abandon

his regal, standoffish management style. 

     His advisers say that the plunge in approval ratings to 37% -- according to

a new poll Wednesday by Harris Interactive -- from 64% in June largely reflects

budget cuts and tax changes that have not been properly explained and have

irritated the military, teachers, civil servants and students.

     "There is now a realization that he needs to push the troops out more," one

government official who is familiar with the thinking of the president's top

advisors told MNI. 

     "There is a realization that this locked communication style is having

negative effects," he added.

     Since taking office, Macron has closed many of the traditional government

communication channels with the press. He has given few press conferences,

stopped radio interviews and limited what ministers can say. Instead, the

government releases a constant stream of "soft news" photos, such as Macron

practicing this week with the Olympique Marseille football team. 

     Government spokesman Christophe Castaner told French radio last week that

there will be an "evolution" in Macron's communications when he returns from

vacation. "It is necessary to find a better balance," he said. 

     The government will have much to explain in September as Macron has

promised to fast-track changes in the labour code to make it easier for

employers to negotiate with employees. Fearing long-standing job projections

will be lost, the hard-line CGT trade union has called for protests on Sept. 12,

while the far-left political firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon is seeking anti-Macron

demonstrations Sept. 23.

     Macron and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire must also nail down the

government's 2018 budget by the end of September, which means spending cuts of

E4.5 billion this year and more next year if France is to keep its promise of

bringing its budget deficit durably below 3% of GDP.  

     The 2018 budget will be the acid test for France's fiscal credibility,

particularly for Macron's relationship with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Macron's proposals for long-term Eurozone reform, including a Eurozone budget

and finance minister, depend largely on Merkel's support. 

     The French president will also have a hyperactive international schedule on

his return, travelling to eastern Europe Aug 23-25, and hosting a

Germany-Spain-Italy summit in Paris on Aug 28. In September, Macron will

participate in a Franco-Italian summit to work out a deal with Rome over the

recently nationalized STX naval shipyard, before travelling to New York for his

first United Nations general assembly. 

     Macron will have powerful advantage going forward as France's economic

recovery looks set to strengthen. Unemployment fell to a 2012-low of 9.5% in the

second quarter, the government said Thursday, while UBS upgraded its French GDP

forecasts to 1.6% and 1.7% in 2018 and 2019, the best levels since the Eurozone

crisis. 

     But Macron's slumping poll numbers remain a red flag and officials close to

his office say communications will be a key topic of discussion in the Elysee

Palace when the president returns from holiday.  

--MNI Paris Bureau; tel: +33 1-42-71-55-41; email: jack.duffy@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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