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MNI: GERMAN DATA: Retail Sales (Mar 2019) Preview....>

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MNI: GERMAN DATA: Retail Sales (Mar 2019) Preview - 07:00 BST
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- Bloomberg Consensus: -0.5% m/m, 2.9% y/y; MNI Median: -0.6% m/m
- Previous (Feb): 0.5% m/m, 4.4% y/y (rev. from 0.9% m/m, 4.7% y/y)
- After growing at their strongest monthly pace in Jan (2.9%) since Oct 2016...
- ... German retail sales rose at a more moderate 0.5% m/m in Feb, leaving the
annual rate at 4.4%
- Markets are looking for a contraction in Mar (-0.5% m/m)...
- ... but this would still leave sales up 1.5% q/q in Q1 - more than double Q4's
0.7% q/q
- Coupled with improved car registration data, this suggests household
consumption was a key driver of Q1 growth
- Q1 GDP, due 15 May, should bounce back after the mild contraction in H2 2018
- The number of unemployed declined for a 22nd consecutive month in Apr...
- ... higher wages, subdued inflation, credit & fiscal conditions should support
retail spending in coming quarters

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