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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - The services PMI readings in Europe for August get
Wednesday's calendar off and running. 
     Spain kicks off the batch of releases at 0715GMT. The previous July reading
was 52.6. Half an hour later is Italy at 0745GMT. The July prior was 54.0. Up
next is France at 0750GMT. The prior July figure was 54.9 and the August flash
estimate was 55.7. Germany at 0755GMT also saw a movement upward from July with
an August flash estimate of 55.2 from July's previous 54.1. The MNI median
suggests the flash reading will remain unchanged from the final estimate
tomorrow. 
     As usual, the Euro Area finish the Continental PMIs at 0800GMT before the
UK steps in at 0830GMT. The flash EZ reading in August rose slightly from July's
reading of 54.2 to 54.4. The MNI median for the final estimate is also for no
change from the flash. Also at the same time is VDMA machine orders in Germany
for August. July saw y/y growth of 13%. 
     Moving to the aforementioned UK services PMI reading for the month of
August at 0830GMT. July's reading of 53.4 is expected by an MNI median to move
up to 54.0. This would be warmly welcomed after downside surprises to both
manufacturing and construction PMI for August. 
     The Euro Area retail trade data for July is at 0900GMT. The previous y/y
growth rate was 1.2%. 
     At 1230GMT, Canada release their trade balance and labour productivity data
for July and Q2 respectively. The trade balance deficit for June was CAD 0.6 bn
and is expected to widen in July to CAD 1.2 bn. On a q/q basis, labour
productivity declined by 0.3% in q1. 
     The US international trade gap is also due at 1230GMT and is seen widening
sharply to $49.8 billion in July from $46.3 billion in June. The advance
estimate of the Census goods trade gap widened to $72.2 billion, as export fell
and imports rose.
     St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank president James Bullard speaks in New York
at 1320GMT.
     At 1345GMT and sandwiched in between two speeches is the ISM manufacturing
index, which is expected to decline further to a reading of 57.9 in August after
slipping to 58.1 in July. Regional conditions data have been mixed. The MNI
Chicago PMI data showed mild deceleration, but remained very strong. The flash
Markit estimate fell to 54.5 from 55.3.
     The most watched piece of Wednesday's calendar is most likely the interest
rate announcement from the Bank of Canada at 1400GMT. The MNI survey of analysts
looks for rates unchanged at 1.5%. 
     Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank president Neel Kashkari participates in a
town hall forum in Bozeman, Montana at 2000GMT. 
     A few hours later and concluding the speeches from Federal Reserve members
is Atlanta Federal Reserve president Raphael Bostic at the Chicago Council on
Global Affairs at 2230GMT. 
     Moving to the early hours of the morning, at 0130GMT is the monthly trade
balance in Australia for July. June had a trade balance of AUD 1.873 bn. 
     The last of the speeches is at 0530GMT with the Bank of Japan's Kataoka
news conference. 
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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