MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday has a considerable amount of data following the

concise calendar yesterday, with key data releases from the eurozone, UK, US and

Japan.

     France, Germany and EZ output data dominates the morning schedule; analysts

expect a drop in PMI figures for manufacturing and services

     Starting bright and early (0745GMT), France release three key figures.

These are its Business Climate Indicator, Manufacturing Sentiment and Services

Sentiment data. Prior figures for these indexes were at 109, 112 and 106

respectively.

     Shortly after the sentiment indicators, the PMI figures for manufacturing

and services for France will be released at 0800GMT. After previous figures of

55.9 and 57.4 respectively, analysts polls by MNI forecast both manufacturing

and services PMI to contract from these figures to 55.5 and 57.1.

     This anticipated contraction by analysts polls is also apparent in Germany

who release their manufacturing and services PMI at 0830GMT. With previous

figures 60.6 and 55.3 respectively, MNI median forecasts suggest manufacturing

PMI is moving further downward from January's high to 59.7. Services PMI is

expected to see downfall from 55.3 to 55.0. This is followed up with the Duetsch

IFO Direction at 0900GMT.

     Next on the schedule is the EZ with their current account data and PMI

releases at 0900GMT. Adjusting for seasonal effects, the current account

previously reported a surplus of eur29.9 billion.

     The PMI tells a story of losing its momentum slightly for the EZ. Composite

PMI is forecasted by analysts to fall from 57.1 to 56.7 and is mirrored with

manufacturing expected to fall from 58.6 to 57.9. Services PMI is expected to

fall the least from 56.2 to 56.0.

     UK retail sales are to be released at 0930GMT with previous m/m retail

sales at 0.1% and excluding fuel, retail sales were at 1.6%.

     Moving into the afternoon see the widely anticipated BOE interest rate and

quantitative easing (QE) decision combined with the minutes from the BOE Policy

Decision Inflation Report.

     MNI forecasts from a wide range of analysts unanimously follow the rhetoric

of interest rates remaining unchanged in March, with 85% of the market

pencilling in a rate hike in May. The BOE's QE programme is also expected to

remain unchanged at stg435 billion.

     The level of initial jobless claims (1230GMT) is expected to fall by 1,000

to 225,000 in the March 17 employment survey week after a 4,000 decline in the

previous week. Claims were at a level of 220,000 in the February 17 employment

survey week. The four-week moving average would rise by 1,250 in the coming

week, as that 220,000 level drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI

forecast is correct and there are no revisions.

     Seasonal adjustment factors expect unadjusted claims to decline further in

the March 17 week after a 20,922 decrease in the previous week. Unadjusted

claims rose by 2,712 in the comparable week a year ago, when seasonal factors

had expected a decline, so adjusted claims rose by 15,000 that week.

     Next on the agenda is the FHFA HPI Monthly price index at 1300GMT with a

prior figure of 0.3%.

     At 1345GMT, there is the double release in the US of the manufacturing and

services index with previous figures of 55.3 and 55.9 respectively.

     The index of leading indicators (1400GMT) is forecast to rise by 0.4% in

February, maintaining the string of solid gains. Positive contributions are

expected from factory hours worked, lower jobless claims, and higher consumer

confidence. These were offset by negative contributions from lower stock prices

and softer building permits.

     The BOJ release at 2330GMT their CPI figures with MNI forecasts suggesting

a slight increase in the y/y figure from 0.9% to 1.0%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com