MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Thursday is the UK's day, with the much anticipated Bank of

England interest rate decision dominating the story.

     The day starts at 0800GMT when Italy releases their March Industrial

Production data. Previously, this saw growth on a m/m and y/y basis of -0.5% and

2.5% respectively.

     Moving quickly on at 0830GMT and the UK day gets underway with the release

of the near-term output data. The trade balance, industrial production and

construction output for the month of March are all set for release. Analyst

anticipate a widening in the trade balance from stg10.2 billion in February to

stg11.1 billion in March. Industrial production is expected to remain unchanged

from February's month-on-month growth at 0.1%. However, contraction is expected

to continue its poor form and decline by 2.3% compared to 1.2% in February.

     Undoubtedly what markets will be focused on today comes at 1100GMT with the

Bank of England interest rate decision. Weak data over the last two weeks has

led to almost every analyst expecting the BOE to keep rates unchanged at 0.5%

with the majority pointing to a 7-2 vote. Also coming with the policy decision

is the BOE's Inflation Report which is likely to show a downward revision to

2018 GDP figures. The amount of government and corporate bond purchases are

expected to remain unchanged at stg435 billion and stg10 billion respectively.

     US CPI is expected at 1230GMT and is seen rising to 0.3% in April following

a weaker-than-expected 0.1% decline in March. The year/year rates should

stabilize or even decline modestly after a run up in March due to base factors

from a year ago. For April, AAA reported a modest gain in mid-month prices from

March, which could support a rebound in CPI gasoline prices after a March

decline. The core CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% following a similar increase in

the previous month.

     The level of initial jobless claims (1230GMT) is expected to post a further

increase in the March 5 week, rising by 9,000 to 220,000 after a small 2,000

increase in the previous week that kept claims very near a decades-low level.

The four-week moving average would fall by 3,250 in the coming week as the

233,000 level in the April 7 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI

forecast is correct and there are no revisions. This would set another new

45-year record if it is realized.

     Also at 1230GMT in Canada is the New Housing Price Index. Previous

year-on-year growth stood at 2.6%.

     Overnight, the focus switches to Asia.

     in China, the money supply, new loans and total social financing data will

be released either today or on Friday. Analysts are pencilling in growth y/y of

M2 of 8.5%, up from a prior 8.2%. New loans are expected to increase slightly

from CNY 1.12 billion to CNY 1.15 billion. Total social financing is expected to

decline by CNY 0.03 billion to CNY 1.30 billion.

     Finishing up in Australia at 0130GMT is the Housing finance monthly data.

Housing finance on a month-on-month basis is expected to deteriorate from a

prior -0.2% to -2.0%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com