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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Data events to look out for on Thursday include the publication of the CBI industrial trends survey at 1100GMT followed by US initial jobless claims at 1330GMT. Moreover, the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing survey will be closely watched at 1330GMT.
CBI orders seen falling in Nov
Markets expect the CBI total orders to deteriorate in November to -40 after having risen to -34 in October. Export orders declined at a slower pace in October, but last month's survey noted that export sentiment dropped. Similarly, output volumes fell at a slower pace in October compared to September and firms noted that output levels are around 15% lower compared to "normal" due to the crisis. Business sentiment remained flat in October. Rising infection rates and a second lockdown are likely to weigh on sentiment going forward.
US Initial jobless claims expected to increase
Initial jobless claims filed through November 14 should tick slightly higher to 715,000 from 709,000 through November 7, the lowest level since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March. Recent initial claims figures suggest some labour market improvement, but, even while filings for regular state benefits have been shrinking, special CARES Act programs like Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) uptake has been on the rise. That points to some renewed weakness as many unemployed workers exhaust state benefits.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index seen lower
Following a sharp increase of 17 points in October, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is forecast to decline 10.3 points in November. The diffusion index is projected to register at 22.0 after October's reading of 32.3. Last month's survey noted that activity, new orders as well as shipments improved and that firms were optimistic about growth over the next six months. However, with infection rates rising across the country and subsequent stricter restrictions, activity is likely to ease again looking ahead.
The events calendar throws up several interesting speeches on Thursday including speeches by ECB's Christine Lagarde and Isabel Schnabel as well as Fed's Miki Bowman and Boston Fed's Eric Rosengren.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.