Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Inflation and jobs data are the highlights in Europe Tuesday, with the UK employment report and German, French and Italian final inflation data all due for release.
The UK unemployment rate is seen edging lower again in April, as it continues to defy the worst fears of the early pandemic days, helped in part by the continuing furlough scheme. The rate is expected to dip to 4.7% from 4.8% in March, with an additional 135,000 jobs added in the rolling three months. The May claimant count is expected to fall to 7% from 7.2% in April.
Wages are also seen higher again, with average total pay expected to jump to 4.9% from 4.0% in March. Total pay ex bonuses is expected to jump to 5.3%, the highest rate of growth in 20 years.
UK Earnings ex-bonus monthly growth rate
Source: Bloomberg
Final inflation data is expected from the leading euro are nations, with expectations that will be in line with the flash readings, underlining the upcoming communications issues for the ECB as prices continue to edge higher. Germany final harmonised CPI is expected to be confirmed at +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y. French inflation is seen at 0.4% m/m and 1.8% y/y. Italian data due at 0900BST is expected to confirm prices rose 1.3% y/y.
The two main releases in the U.S. include PPI and retail sales, both due at 1330BST. Factory gate inflation is expected to edge higher in May from the April reading, with the median forecast looking for a rise of 6.3% y/y vs a rise of 6.2%. Retail sales are expected to fall 0.7% m/m in May, although the latest MNI Reality Check suggests sales may have held in slightly better, despite rising prices.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.