Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Thursday's main focus will be the European Central Bank's June policy meeting, with expectations that Frankfurt is set to end its asset purchase programme and signal the first hike in interest rates in over a decade.
Ahead of the ECB, there is a very limited data calendar, with the only release of note the Swedish April industrial production data. Analysts expect production to contract by 0.3% in the month after a 0.4% gain in March.
The ECB policy decision is due at 1245BST, followed by the press conference at 1330BST. MNI's state of play points to bond buys ending no later than very early in July, with a first hike, probably 25 bps, coming at the July 21 meeting. However, the chances of a 50 bps hike then cannot be ruled out and it will certainly be open for debate at the very least. This meeting, the deposit rate is expected to be maintained at -0.5%.
The fresh Q2 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections are expected to confirm inflation at target over the projection horizon, meaning bond buying under the Asset Purchase Programme will, as signposted, end in early Q3, paving the way for a "benchmark" 25bps hike next month. Both policy moves were recently telegraphed by president Christine Lagarde and chief economist Philip Lane, with a further hike seen in September, taking the deposit rate out of negative territory ( MNI SOURCES1: ECB Seen Making Two To Three 25-BP Hikes In 2022).
Debate is therefore likely to focus on the pace of monetary policy normalisation, with questions regarding the precise location of the equilibrium rate -- a point of considerable disagreement among GovCo members -- unlikely to be answered publicly.
The full MN markets team preview is also available.
In the U.S., the main data release will be the weekly jobless claims data, with expectations of a modest pick up to 205,000 from 200,000 in the previous week. However, continuing claims are expected to dip to 1.3 million from 1.309 million.
Policymaker appearances will include ECB President Christine Lagarde and VP Luis de Guindos speaking at the post-meeting press conference, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem and BOC deputy governor Rogers.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 09/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | Private Sector Production |
| 09/06/2022 | 1145/1345 | *** |  | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 09/06/2022 | 1145/1345 | *** | | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 09/06/2022 | 1145/1345 | *** | | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 09/06/2022 | - | *** |  | CN | Trade |
| 09/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 09/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 09/06/2022 | 1230/1430 | | EU | ECB Press Conference Following Governing Council Meeting | |
| 09/06/2022 | 1400/1000 |  | CA | BOC Financial System Review | |
| 09/06/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 09/06/2022 | 1500/1100 | | CA | BOC Governor press conference | |
| 09/06/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 09/06/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 09/06/2022 | 1700/1300 | *** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.