Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MONDAY - Final Services PMIs
January Services PMI data for Spain and Italy will be published on Monday morning and are expected to show that services sector activity started 2024 on the front foot. They will be released alongside final readings for France, Germany and the Eurozone - which in their preliminary readings showed contractionary activity along with evidence of wage pressures. The Eurozone flash release hinted at constructive Italian and Spanish services PMIs, noting that "the rest of the eurozone [ex- Germany and France] as a whole returned to growth after five months of decline, recording the largest - yet still modest - expansion since last June". This is reflected in Bloomberg median estimates for both Spain (seen 52.1, which would be a 6-month high, vs 51.5 prior) and Italy (50.4, which would mark the first above-50 readings since July 2023, vs 49.8 prior).
MONDAY/FRIDAY - US DATA incl CPI Revisions
Main US data releases bookend the week. Monday sees ISM services and the Fed’s SLOOS shown to the FOMC at Wednesday's meeting, before CPI seasonal revisions on Friday. ISM services will no doubt be watched closely and with heightened attention to employment after it slid 7pts to 43.8 in December, in firm contrast to Friday’s booming payrolls report for January. Banks received very limited attention at the FOMC announcement but the SLOOS being focused on Q4 and early January at the latest should see it miss the latest flare-ups in regional banks concerning NYCB. Chair Powell’s discussion on the banking system (amongst other topics) on Sunday could be more revealing but SLOOS should still provide a useful update on broader lending conditions. Annual revisions to CPI seasonal factors come ahead of the January CPI report on Feb 13, with the revisions explicitly flagged by Waller in last month’s early rate cut pushback with the chance to alter recent trends. Powell on Wed when asked about them: “We will just have to see. We looked at those. Last year was a surprise.”
TUESDAY - RBA
The RBA is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.35% at its February 6 meeting given that Q4 CPI came in below its November forecasts and activity data have been soft since the last meeting. But it is likely to be too soon to remove the tightening bias given still elevated domestic price pressures. This will be the first meeting to include recommended changes from the RBA review. The meeting will now be held over two days, the statement will be from the Board and not just the Governor, there will be a press conference one hour after the decision and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy will be released on Tuesday rather than the usual following Friday.
WEDNESDAY - RBP
The National Bank of Poland are widely expected to hold rates steady at 5.75% on Wednesday for its fourth consecutive meeting. The baseline scenario among most sell-side analysts is for the NBP to stand pat on rates until at least March when the next set of macroeconomic projections are released. Meanwhile, sticky inflation will warrant the central bank’s cautious approach to rate cuts at this juncture.
THURSDAY - Czech National Bank
The Czech National Bank will meet on Thursday and will present an updated set of macroeconomic forecasts. While expectations had been firm that the 25bp cutting pace be maintained from December, dovish rhetoric ahead of the CNB blackout period prompted a shift in sentiment among analysts, some of whom now see higher odds of an outsized rate cut.
THURSDAY - Banxico
Also on Thursday, Mexico’s central bank will likely keep rates unchanged at 11.25%, although analysts will carefully monitor the statement for any guidance on potential easing later in Q1. In Peru, the BCRP will likely maintain the gradual pace of easing, cutting the reference rate by 25bps to 6.25%. However, further progress on inflation has sparked debate among analysts as to whether the easing pace should be accelerated.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 05/02/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** |  | AU | Trade Balance |
| 05/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | Trade Balance |
| 05/02/2024 | 0700/0200 | * |  | TR | Turkey CPI |
| 05/02/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | EU | PPI |
| 05/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** |  | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/02/2024 | 1530/1030 |  | CA | BOC quarterly Market Participants Survey | |
| 05/02/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 05/02/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 05/02/2024 | 1730/1730 |  | UK | BOE's Pill MPR Virtual Q&A | |
| 05/02/2024 | 1900/1400 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 06/02/2024 | 0001/0001 | * | | UK | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 06/02/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | | AU | Retail trade quarterly |
| 06/02/2024 | 0330/1430 | *** | | AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 06/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06/02/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | EU | IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 06/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 06/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 06/02/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/02/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06/02/2024 | 1200/1200 | | UK | Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report | |
| 06/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | Building Permits |
| 06/02/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 06/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 06/02/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 06/02/2024 | 1700/1200 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 06/02/2024 | 1745/1245 | | CA | BOC Governor speech/press conference in Montreal | |
| 06/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | *** | | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 06/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 06/02/2024 | 1900/1400 | | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | |
| 07/02/2024 | 2145/1045 | *** |  | NZ | Quarterly Labor market data |
| 06/02/2024 | 0000/1900 | | US | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 07/02/2024 | 0645/0745 | ** |  | CH | Unemployment |
| 07/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/02/2024 | 0745/0845 | * |  | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07/02/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | ES | Industrial Production |
| 07/02/2024 | 0840/0840 | | UK | BoE's Breeden Speaks At Women In Economics Event | |
| 07/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | * | | IT | Retail Sales |
| 07/02/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 07/02/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 07/02/2024 | 1215/1215 | | UK | BOE's Woods et al : Treasury Select Committee 'work of the PRA' | |
| 07/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 07/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 07/02/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 07/02/2024 | 1600/1100 | | US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 07/02/2024 | 1630/1130 | | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | |
| 07/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 07/02/2024 | 1830/1330 | | CA | BOC Minutes (Summary of Deliberations) | |
| 07/02/2024 | 1900/1400 | | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 07/02/2024 | 2000/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
| 08/02/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | CPI |
| 08/02/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 08/02/2024 | 0500/1400 |  | JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
| 08/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 08/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 08/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 08/02/2024 | 1500/1500 | | UK | BoE's Mann Speaks At OMFIF | |
| 08/02/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 08/02/2024 | 1530/1630 | | EU | ECB's Lane at Brookings Institution | |
| 08/02/2024 | 1700/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 08/02/2024 | 1705/1205 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 08/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | *** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 09/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | | DE | HICP (f) |
| 09/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 09/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** |  | NO | CPI Norway |
| 09/02/2024 | 0900/1000 | * | | IT | Industrial Production |
| 09/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 09/02/2024 | 1415/1515 | | EU | ECB's Cipollone speaks at Assiom Forex Annual Congress | |
| 09/02/2024 | 1530/1030 | | CA | BOC Senior Loan Officer Survey | |
| 09/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.