MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - BOC to Meet, US CPI Due

TUESDAY

Norway CPI: Despite headline annualised CPI set to cool further in March, Norwegian inflation will likely flag continued m/m inflationary pressures. Underlying inflation remains a key concern for Norges Bank, and is expected to accelerate by 0.3pp to +6.2% y/y in March, only 0.2pp below the January high. At the March meet, Norges Bank signalled further tightening is likely to follow in May.

Eurozone Retail: Eurozone consumer confidence continued to recover for a fifth month in the February survey, with promising signs of purchasing intentions improving. Yet this is unlikely to filter into any substantial growth in the February retail sales print for the bloc, after the modest +0.3% m/m January uptick which failed to make up for the December slump.

WEDNESDAY

US CPI: US inflation is projected to cool further in March, with consensus looking for a 0.8pp decline to +5.2% y/y, however this will be largely underpinned by base-effects. Prices are likely to increase on the month at around +0.3% m/m (0.1pp softer than February). Of concern for the Fed will be core CPI, which is anticipated to edge up by 0.1pp to +5.6% y/y, breaking a five-month streak of easing annualised core.

As such, it is too early to say whether the Fed will be willing to forego a May hike. FOMC minutes are due later on Wednesday.

BOC Rate Decision: The Bank of Canada is largely seen holding their policy rate steady again at 4.5%, the decision assisted by an unwillingness to adjust rates against the backdrop of recent US banking-sector volatility. The BOC’s latest quarterly survey found households and executives see inflation remaining stubborn and well above target even with a mild recession expected in the next year, underlining why officials have said it's premature to think about lowering borrowing costs after pausing rate hikes last month.

THURSDAY

Germany CPI (final): German inflation cooled to +7.8% y/y (HICP), whilst rising +1.1% m/m in the March flash release. The focus will be the core print. The available state data suggests an acceleration in core CPI ex. energy and food, underpinned by the 0.1pp uptick in annualised service CPI.

UK Monthly GDP: The February run of UK data is expected to reveal modest growth, with GDP seen up +0.2% m/m after the surprisingly upbeat +0.3% m/m January print. Upwards revisions from services and construction largely lifted the Q4 GDP print from a flat reading to +0.1% q/q, and if the February and March monthly GDP prints prove more robust as it currently appears, the UK may have avoided a recession for now.

Industrial production is seen rebounding by +0.2% m/m from the January contraction whilst services should post another robust month of activity.

Italy / Eurozone Industrial Production: Italian IP is anticipated to expand by +0.5% m/m in February after the -0.7% m/m slump in February. Upside surprises could likely materialise after expansive February/March PMIs.

The eurozone aggregate data follows surprisingly strong German, French and Spanish February IP prints, implying another robust aggregate print. Consensus is looking for +1.0% m/m and +1.6% y/y.

US PPI: Following the CPI print, March PPI for final demand is expected to stall on the month, after the modest -0.1% m/m contraction in February, yet ticking up by +0.3% m/m in the core reading – suggesting that underlying goods and services inflation continues to follow an (albeit mild) upwards trend.

FRIDAY

Sweden CPI: Swedish inflation is seen slowing by 0.9pp to +11.1% y/y in March, whilst short-term price pressures remain elevated, with consensus looking for a similar +1.0% m/m increase. The Riksbank’s closely watched CPIF print will likely only cool by around 0.2pp to +9.1% y/y when excluding energy, signalling that underlying inflation is yet to see significant relief, making a 50bp April hike a firm contender.

France CPI (Final) / Spain CPI (Final): Final inflation prints are due for France and Spain. French HICP was recorded at +0.9% m/m and +6.6% y/y in the March flash, with the annualised rate 0.7pp lower than the French euro-era high of +7.3% y/y reached in February. A softer annualised core CPI print is on the cards, as services prices edged down.

Spanish HICP cooled by 2.9pp to +3.1% y/y; the lowest annualised rate since July 2021 and 0.6pp below consensus expectations in the March flash. Spanish core CPI (non-harmonised) edged down by 0.1pp.

US Retail Sales / Industrial Productions / Michigan Sentiment (Prelim): Another contractive month is pencilled in for US retail sales, which are seen falling -0.4% m/m in the advance print, on par with February. High inflation is continuing to suppress spending appetite. Excluding auto a similar decline is anticipated.

US industrial production is expected to edge up by +0.3% m/m after a flat February. This was foreshadowed by March S&P Global PMI, but contradicts the ISM manufacturing survey which was weaker than expected, falling to the lowest since May 2020.

The prelim U Michigan sentiment index is expected to improve by a further two points to 64.0 in April, only partly regaining the March five-point slide. High inflation remains Americans' top concern and has kept sentiment at historically low levels despite continued expectations for a strong labour market. Despite this, the gradual ease in inflation expectations has underpinned recent improvements.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
11/04/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
11/04/2023	0600/0800	*		NO	CPI Norway
11/04/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Retail Sales
11/04/2023	1000/0600	**		US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
11/04/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
11/04/2023	1600/1200	***		US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
11/04/2023	1700/1300	***		US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
11/04/2023	1730/1330			US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
11/04/2023	2200/1800			US	Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker
11/04/2023	2330/1930			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
12/04/2023	0600/0800	**		NO	Norway GDP
12/04/2023	0900/1000	*		UK	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
12/04/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
12/04/2023	-			EU	ECB Lagarde and Panetta in IMF/World Bank, G20 Finance Ministers' Meetings
12/04/2023	1230/0830	***		US	CPI
12/04/2023	1230/1430			EU	ECB de Guindos at Asociacion para el Progreso de Direccion Event
12/04/2023	1300/1400			UK	BOE Bailey Remarks at Institute of International Finance
12/04/2023	1300/0900			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
12/04/2023	1400/1000	***		CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
12/04/2023	1400/1000			CA	Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
12/04/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
12/04/2023	1500/1100			CA	Bank of Canada Governor press conference
12/04/2023	1600/1200			US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
12/04/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
12/04/2023	1800/1400	**		US	Treasury Budget
12/04/2023	1915/2015			UK	BOE Bailey Speaks at IMF Governor Talks