MNI Global Week Ahead - Busy Week Across The Globe
MNI (LONDON) - See below for the key events in Developed and Emerging Markets next week:
Japan holds a snap general election on Sunday 27 October with all 465 seats in the lower chamber of the National Diet, the House of Representatives, up for grabs. The contest comes as part of an effort by newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to stamp his authority on the office and reinforce his position as president of the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). As well as reaffirming his own position, Ishiba will also be keen to use the election as an opportunity to draw a line under the slush fund scandal that erupted within the LDP in late 2023. The decision to call an early election can be seen as a high-risk strategy from the new PM. The LDP held 247 seats at dissolution, above the 233 required for an overall majority. Alongside its frequent coalition ally, the Komeito party, the government held a healthy majority. However, opinion polling shows support for the LDP potentially falling below that recorded in the 2021 election.
MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US Quarterly Refunding
Treasury's quarterly Refunding process begins on Monday Oct 28 with the release of the financing estimates for the current quarter (we refer to this as the November refunding round). Wednesday Oct 30 brings Treasury's announcement of coupon auction sizes, as well as its guidance for future issuance. MNI does not expect any change in nominal coupon sizes to be announced (though there might be a small $1B uptick in TIPS) for Nov-Dec-Jan. The second major outcome from the Refunding process are the financing estimates for calendar Q4 (Oct-Dec) and Q1 2025 (Jan-Mar) which are out Monday. There are many moving parts to the new financing estimates, the main one being whatever anticipation Treasury has of the reinstatement of the debt ceiling on Jan 2, 2025. Overall though it will be tricky to get a read of Treasury's actual operating intentions for Q1 and beyond, since they are likely to assume for forecasting purposes that the debt limit will be lifted by Congress.
WEDNESDAY - Australia Q3 CPI
Australian Q3/September CPI data print on Wednesday with the focus on the trimmed mean and services. With the rollout of energy rebates through the quarter, headline is forecast to fall temporarily below the top of the RBA’s 2-3% band, thus the extra attention on core. The trimmed mean should also moderate both in quarterly and annual terms but remain above target. The RBA still views inflation as “too high”.
WEDNESDAY - UK Budget
Wednesday will see the first Labour Budget delivered since 2010 after a long period of Conservative power. Chancellor Reeves has committed to balancing current spending, increasing infrastructure spending and plugging the inherited "fiscal hole" - all whilst keeping income tax, national insurance and VAT unchanged. Recent media reports suggest that the medium-term fiscal rule will be changed to be based on PSNFL rather than PSNDex - which frees up around GBP50bln of headroom. However, markets will be watching closely exactly what this means for issuance, growth prospects and whether the announced changes are likely to alter the course of monetary policy through both 2025 and the longer-term.
WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - Eurozone Flash Q3 GDP and October Inflation
With markets currently pricing a ~40% implied probability of a 50bp ECB cut in December, next week’s Eurozone flash Q3 GDP (Wed) and October flash inflation (Thu) will be closely watched.
Analysts expect GDP at 0.2% Q/Q, which would be in line with the ECB’s September macroeconomic projections. However, weak readings towards the end of the quarter (in particular the September PMIs) and recent ECB commentary suggests the risks lie to the downside. Of the four largest Eurozone countries, Spain is once again expected to outperform, with analysts expecting a reading of 0.6% Q/Q. In contrast, German GDP is expected to contract 0.1%.
Headline inflation is expected to edge a little higher to 1.9% Y/Y in October (vs 1.7% prior), though core is forecast to fall a tenth to 2.6% Y/Y, which would be its lowest since January 2022. Focus will be on whether underlying services inflation momentum continues easing (as recently highlighted by Chief Economist Lane) and whether core goods inflation begins moving away from cycle lows. Spanish and German flash readings are reported the day before the Eurozone-wide print as usual.
WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY / FRIDAY - US GDP, PCE and Labour Market Data
The US economic calendar heads into November with a bang after a quieter week, with the first national accounts release for Q3 (Wed), monthly PCE for September (Thu), the Employment Cost Index for Q3 (Thu) and nonfarm payrolls for October (Fri).
Real GDP tracking looks particularly robust heading into the Q3 release, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow at 3.3% annualized (early days for the Bloomberg survey has 3.0%) after a strong 3.0% in Q2. Reaction will likely be shaped by underlying details here, with final domestic demand expected to look solid after adding 2.8pps to GDP growth back in Q2. Note that Gross Domestic Income, which drew particular attention from FOMC members after large upward comprehensive revisions, won’t be updated with this release as is typical for the advance report. As for Thursday’s PCE report, analyst estimates after CPI, PPI and import price releases look for core PCE inflation of around 0.25-0.26% M/M for September. Wednesday’s Q3 release can be used as a very rough guide for how likely this looks although we won’t know the latest monthly profile until Thursday. Assuming no major surprises in inflation metrics, we expect spending and incomes to take greater focus this month after a stronger than expected retail sales report bodes well for goods consumption at least.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for October is expected to see disruption from hurricanes and the ongoing Boeing strike, with consensus currently looking for nonfarm payrolls growth of 120k following a blockbuster 254k in September. Fed Governor Waller at the time said the 142k reported August jobs growth was a "little lower than forecast" but that his longer-run estimate of normal NFP growth is 80- 100k/month - so a number such as that is "nothing to be afraid of". The unemployment rate will again be in focus for a gauge of labor market balance after its surprising shift lower to 4.05% in September following an average 4.24% in July-August. The median FOMC participant in September forecast an unemployment rate of 4.4% in 4Q25 (revised sharply higher from 4.0% in the June SEP). Surprises in either direction here can have significant implications for market pricing that currently looks for a 25bp cut at the following week’s Nov 7 FOMC decision.
THURSDAY - BoJ Decision
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its target rate at 0.25% during its meeting on October 31. In September, Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the BoJ needs to gauge the resilience of the US economy before considering further rate hikes, and we believe this assessment will take more time. Key upcoming events, such as October’s US jobs report and the US presidential election in November, could have significant market implications. That said, the BoJ cannot afford to wait indefinitely. With wages and prices continuing to rise and the yen under renewed downward pressure, the risk of inflation overshooting the 2% target is increasing. If inflationary pressures persist, the central bank may be forced to adjust its ultra-loose policy sooner than expected to prevent overheating, even if global and domestic uncertainties remain.
THURSDAY - BanRep Decision (Colombia)
Analysts are divided between whether BanRep will opt to continue with its 50bp easing pace in October or deliver a larger 75bp cut of the overnight lending rate, which currently stands at 10.25%. Recent central bank rhetoric suggests that the cautious stance may prevail amid rising fiscal concerns, however, last month’s close vote split and the latest survey data suggest that the decision could go either way.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
26/10/2024 | 1520/1620 | GB | BOE's Bailey panellist at G30 Banking Seminar | |
28/10/2024 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
28/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
28/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
28/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
28/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
28/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
28/10/2024 | 1945/2045 | EU | ECB's De Guindos speech and Q&A at Foros Reflexión | |
29/10/2024 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
29/10/2024 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
29/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | * | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
29/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | GDP |
29/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
29/10/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
29/10/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
29/10/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
29/10/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
29/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
29/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
29/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
29/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
29/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | housing vacancies |
29/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
29/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
29/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
29/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
29/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
29/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
29/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
29/10/2024 | 1930/1530 | CA | BOC Governor Macklem at House finance committee | |
30/10/2024 | - | JP | Bank of Japan Meeting | |
30/10/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | CPI inflation |
30/10/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
30/10/2024 | 0600/1400 | ** | CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
30/10/2024 | 0630/0730 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
30/10/2024 | 0630/0730 | *** | FR | GDP (p) |
30/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | DE | GDP (p) |
30/10/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) |
30/10/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | ES | GDP (p) |
30/10/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
30/10/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
30/10/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
30/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | IT | GDP (p) |
30/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | PPI |
30/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
30/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
30/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q |
30/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y |
30/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
30/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
30/10/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
30/10/2024 | - | GB | UK Budget | |
30/10/2024 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
30/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP |
30/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
30/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
30/10/2024 | 1300/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) |
30/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
30/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
30/10/2024 | 1500/1600 | EU | ECB's Schnabel speech at SAFE-CEPR conference | |
30/10/2024 | 1800/1400 | US | Fed Beige Book | |
30/10/2024 | 2015/1615 | CA | BOC Governor Macklem at Senate banking committee | |
31/10/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
31/10/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
31/10/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | Retail trade quarterly |
31/10/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
31/10/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Trade price indexes |
31/10/2024 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
31/10/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
31/10/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
31/10/2024 | 0300/1200 | *** | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
31/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
31/10/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
31/10/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) |
31/10/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
31/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
31/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |
31/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
31/10/2024 | 1000/1000 | GB | BOE's Breeden speech on emerging technologies | |
31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Cost Index |
31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
31/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
31/10/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
31/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
01/11/2024 | 2200/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
01/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Producer price index q/q |
01/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Lending Finance Details |
01/11/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
01/11/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
01/11/2024 | 0730/0830 | *** | CH | CPI |
01/11/2024 | 0730/0830 | ** | CH | Retail Sales |
01/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
01/11/2024 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
01/11/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
01/11/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
01/11/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
01/11/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |