MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - Fed, BoE, ECB And A Host Of Other CBs

MONDAY / THURSDAY - NORWAY CPI AND NORGES BANK DECISION

The Norges Bank decision on Thursday is seen as a close call, with the November CPI data released on Monday the last piece of the puzzle for many analysts before nailing down expectations. The Norges Bank softened their policy guidance at the last meeting in November, noting that the policy rate could be kept on hold if underlying inflation measures continued to ease. Analysts currently expect CPI to print at 4.9% Y/Y and CPI-ATE at 5.9% Y/Y - both below the Norges Bank's September projections.

TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - US CPI AND FED DECISION

US CPI for November lands on Tuesday, day one of the two-day FOMC meeting. It won’t shape the rate setting outcome of this meeting but could heavily influence rate cut expectations which have pulled back closer to 4.5 cuts in 2024 from 5 cuts pre-payrolls. The October report saw core CPI slow more than expected to 0.23% M/M (cons 0.3), helped by a large decline in hotel prices. A partial reversal of this is seen helping core CPI re-accelerate back to 0.3% M/M although there is some downside skew in the analyst survey. Headline CPI meanwhile is seen flat in M/M terms, weighed down by another solid decline in energy prices. Supercore CPI inflation could again help shape market reaction - some analyst estimates we’ve seen have a wide range after October’s 0.22% M/M, adding to uncertainty.

The FOMC will hold rates in December for a 3rd consecutive meeting and the 4th in the past 5, further cementing expectations that the hiking cycle is over. But while the updated projections will acknowledge scope for cuts in 2024 alongside lower inflation forecasts, the FOMC will likely attempt a modest pushback against the recent loosening of financial conditions. Meaningful changes to the Statement’s tightening bias are unlikely until least one or two more meetings from now, while Chair Powell is likely to warn that the FOMC is proceeding carefully and is prepared to tighten further if required. With senior FOMC officials pointing out that rate cuts are consistent with maintaining restrictive policy in real terms as inflation falls, the "spread" between participants’ rate and inflation forecasts will be of increasing interest.

THURSDAY - ECB DECISION

The ECB are firmly expected to hold policy rates on Thursday. Recent inflation data has come in lower than expected, while activity data remains subdued. Most interest will be on whether the ECB explicitly pushes back on current market pricing for 2024 rate cuts, and whether PEPP reinvestment plans are referenced in the decision/press conference. Recent ECB communication has focused more on the path of inflation and the timing of potential rate cuts, with QT discussions taking a backseat - setting the stage for a volatile market reaction should any announcement be made.

THURSDAY - BOE DECISION

There is a unanimous expectation that the Bank of England’s MPC will vote to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25% at its policy decision, to be announced on Thursday. There are two key things to watch: first, whether the language is maintained. In September, the MPC said that “Monetary policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long” while in November a sentence was added stating that “The MPC’s latest projections indicate that monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time.” There are no forecasts with this meeting, but if “extended period of time” was dropped it would likely be seen as dovish. The vote will also be watched – in November it was 6-3 with dissent in favour of a 25bp hike. While we expect another 6-3 vote, there is a chance that one, two or even all three of the hawkish dissenters vote for rates on hold, and also a chance that Dhingra votes for a cut.

THURSDAY – SNB DECISION

The Swiss National Bank is likely to leave the policy rate on hold at 1.75% with markets focusing on the updated CPI projections and any change of language on FX interventions. The September meeting came in unchanged, despite expectations for a further hike, with the SNB pointing to softer near-term economic activity - although did signal that rate hikes remain a possibility ahead. Softer November CPI (1.4% Y/Y headline and core) seemed to take further tightening off the table, per OIS-implied rate pricing, and leads markets to expect a downward revision to the inflation forecast on Thursday.

WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY / FRIDAY - EM DECISIONS

In LatAm, Brazil’s central bank (Wed) will stick to the 50bp easing pace, lowering the Selic rate to 11.75%, whereas in Mexico (Thu), all analysts expect an unchanged decision, holding rates at 11.25%. Perhaps the most interesting decision will come in Peru (Thu), where following a significantly lower-than-expected inflation print, the BCRP may have a close call between keeping the 25bp cutting pace or making a bolder rate reduction.

In the Philippines, BSP (Thu) is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at 6.50% and analysts remain split over whether Russia’s central bank (Fri) will continue its hiking cycle, following a 200bp rate increase to 15% in October.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
09/12/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CPI
09/12/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	Producer Price Index
11/12/2023	0700/0800	***		NO	CPI Norway
11/12/2023	-	***		CN	Money Supply
11/12/2023	-	***		CN	New Loans
11/12/2023	-	***		CN	Social Financing
11/12/2023	1600/1100	**		US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
11/12/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
11/12/2023	1630/1130	***		US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
11/12/2023	1800/1300	**		US	US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
11/12/2023	1800/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
12/12/2023	0700/0800	**		NO	Norway GDP
12/12/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
12/12/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
12/12/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
12/12/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
12/12/2023	1100/0600	**		US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
12/12/2023	1330/0830	***		US	CPI
12/12/2023	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
12/12/2023	1500/1000	*		US	Services Revenues
12/12/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
12/12/2023	1800/1300	***		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond
12/12/2023	1900/1400	**		US	Treasury Budget
13/12/2023	2145/1045	**		NZ	Current account balance
13/12/2023	2350/0850	***		JP	Tankan
13/12/2023	0700/0700	**		UK	UK Monthly GDP
13/12/2023	0700/0700	**		UK	Index of Services
13/12/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Index of Production
13/12/2023	0700/0700	**		UK	Trade Balance
13/12/2023	0700/0700	**		UK	Output in the Construction Industry
13/12/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	Industrial Production
13/12/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
13/12/2023	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
13/12/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Household debt-to-income
13/12/2023	1330/0830	***		US	PPI
13/12/2023	1530/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
13/12/2023	1900/1400	***		US	FOMC Statement
14/12/2023	2145/1045	***		NZ	GDP
14/12/2023	2350/0850	*		JP	Machinery orders
14/12/2023	0030/1130	***		AU	Labor Force Survey
14/12/2023	0430/1330	**		JP	Industrial production
14/12/2023	0700/0800	***		SE	Inflation Report
14/12/2023	0745/0845	*		FR	Retail Sales
14/12/2023	0800/0900	***		ES	HICP (f)
14/12/2023	0830/0930	***		CH	SNB PolicyRate
14/12/2023	0900/1000	***		NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
14/12/2023	1200/1200	***		UK	Bank Of England Interest Rate
14/12/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
14/12/2023	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
14/12/2023	1330/0830	**		CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
14/12/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Retail Sales
14/12/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Import/Export Price Index
14/12/2023	1400/0900	*		CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
14/12/2023	1500/1000	*		US	Business Inventories
14/12/2023	1515/1615			EU	ECB Lagarde participates in MP Podcast
14/12/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
15/12/2023	2200/0900	***		AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
15/12/2023	0001/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
15/12/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
15/12/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
15/12/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Retail Sales
15/12/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Industrial Output
15/12/2023	0200/1000	**		CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
15/12/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
15/12/2023	0745/0845	***		FR	HICP (f)
15/12/2023	0815/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
15/12/2023	0815/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
15/12/2023	0830/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
15/12/2023	0830/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
15/12/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
15/12/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
15/12/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
15/12/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
15/12/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
15/12/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Services PMI flash
15/12/2023	0930/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
15/12/2023	1000/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
15/12/2023	1000/1000			UK	BOE's Ramsden Speech at Deloitte on Bank resolution regime
15/12/2023	1315/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
15/12/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
15/12/2023	1330/0830	**		CA	Wholesale Trade
15/12/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/12/2023	1415/0915	***		US	Industrial Production
15/12/2023	1445/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
15/12/2023	1445/0945	***		US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
15/12/2023	1630/1630			UK	BoE announce APF Sales schedule for Q124
15/12/2023	1725/1225			CA	BOC Governor Macklem speech/press conference
15/12/2023	1800/1300	**		US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
15/12/2023	2100/1600	**		US	TICS