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Free AccessMNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY471.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday
CHINA RATES: CHINA RATES: China Repo Rates Diverge On Tuesday
MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - Fed, BoE, ECB And A Host Of Other CBs
MONDAY / THURSDAY - NORWAY CPI AND NORGES BANK DECISION
The Norges Bank decision on Thursday is seen as a close call, with the November CPI data released on Monday the last piece of the puzzle for many analysts before nailing down expectations. The Norges Bank softened their policy guidance at the last meeting in November, noting that the policy rate could be kept on hold if underlying inflation measures continued to ease. Analysts currently expect CPI to print at 4.9% Y/Y and CPI-ATE at 5.9% Y/Y - both below the Norges Bank's September projections.
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - US CPI AND FED DECISION
US CPI for November lands on Tuesday, day one of the two-day FOMC meeting. It won’t shape the rate setting outcome of this meeting but could heavily influence rate cut expectations which have pulled back closer to 4.5 cuts in 2024 from 5 cuts pre-payrolls. The October report saw core CPI slow more than expected to 0.23% M/M (cons 0.3), helped by a large decline in hotel prices. A partial reversal of this is seen helping core CPI re-accelerate back to 0.3% M/M although there is some downside skew in the analyst survey. Headline CPI meanwhile is seen flat in M/M terms, weighed down by another solid decline in energy prices. Supercore CPI inflation could again help shape market reaction - some analyst estimates we’ve seen have a wide range after October’s 0.22% M/M, adding to uncertainty.
The FOMC will hold rates in December for a 3rd consecutive meeting and the 4th in the past 5, further cementing expectations that the hiking cycle is over. But while the updated projections will acknowledge scope for cuts in 2024 alongside lower inflation forecasts, the FOMC will likely attempt a modest pushback against the recent loosening of financial conditions. Meaningful changes to the Statement’s tightening bias are unlikely until least one or two more meetings from now, while Chair Powell is likely to warn that the FOMC is proceeding carefully and is prepared to tighten further if required. With senior FOMC officials pointing out that rate cuts are consistent with maintaining restrictive policy in real terms as inflation falls, the "spread" between participants’ rate and inflation forecasts will be of increasing interest.
THURSDAY - ECB DECISION
The ECB are firmly expected to hold policy rates on Thursday. Recent inflation data has come in lower than expected, while activity data remains subdued. Most interest will be on whether the ECB explicitly pushes back on current market pricing for 2024 rate cuts, and whether PEPP reinvestment plans are referenced in the decision/press conference. Recent ECB communication has focused more on the path of inflation and the timing of potential rate cuts, with QT discussions taking a backseat - setting the stage for a volatile market reaction should any announcement be made.
THURSDAY - BOE DECISION
There is a unanimous expectation that the Bank of England’s MPC will vote to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25% at its policy decision, to be announced on Thursday. There are two key things to watch: first, whether the language is maintained. In September, the MPC said that “Monetary policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long” while in November a sentence was added stating that “The MPC’s latest projections indicate that monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time.” There are no forecasts with this meeting, but if “extended period of time” was dropped it would likely be seen as dovish. The vote will also be watched – in November it was 6-3 with dissent in favour of a 25bp hike. While we expect another 6-3 vote, there is a chance that one, two or even all three of the hawkish dissenters vote for rates on hold, and also a chance that Dhingra votes for a cut.
THURSDAY – SNB DECISION
The Swiss National Bank is likely to leave the policy rate on hold at 1.75% with markets focusing on the updated CPI projections and any change of language on FX interventions. The September meeting came in unchanged, despite expectations for a further hike, with the SNB pointing to softer near-term economic activity - although did signal that rate hikes remain a possibility ahead. Softer November CPI (1.4% Y/Y headline and core) seemed to take further tightening off the table, per OIS-implied rate pricing, and leads markets to expect a downward revision to the inflation forecast on Thursday.
WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY / FRIDAY - EM DECISIONS
In LatAm, Brazil’s central bank (Wed) will stick to the 50bp easing pace, lowering the Selic rate to 11.75%, whereas in Mexico (Thu), all analysts expect an unchanged decision, holding rates at 11.25%. Perhaps the most interesting decision will come in Peru (Thu), where following a significantly lower-than-expected inflation print, the BCRP may have a close call between keeping the 25bp cutting pace or making a bolder rate reduction.
In the Philippines, BSP (Thu) is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at 6.50% and analysts remain split over whether Russia’s central bank (Fri) will continue its hiking cycle, following a 200bp rate increase to 15% in October.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
09/12/2023 | 0130/0930 | *** | ![]() | CN | CPI |
09/12/2023 | 0130/0930 | *** | ![]() | CN | Producer Price Index |
11/12/2023 | 0700/0800 | *** | ![]() | NO | CPI Norway |
11/12/2023 | - | *** | ![]() | CN | Money Supply |
11/12/2023 | - | *** | ![]() | CN | New Loans |
11/12/2023 | - | *** | ![]() | CN | Social Financing |
11/12/2023 | 1600/1100 | ** | ![]() | US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
11/12/2023 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
11/12/2023 | 1630/1130 | *** | ![]() | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
11/12/2023 | 1800/1300 | ** | ![]() | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
11/12/2023 | 1800/1300 | * | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
12/12/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | NO | Norway GDP |
12/12/2023 | 0700/0700 | *** | ![]() | UK | Labour Market Survey |
12/12/2023 | 1000/1100 | *** | ![]() | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
12/12/2023 | 1000/1100 | *** | ![]() | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
12/12/2023 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
12/12/2023 | 1100/0600 | ** | ![]() | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
12/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | US | CPI |
12/12/2023 | 1355/0855 | ** | ![]() | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
12/12/2023 | 1500/1000 | * | ![]() | US | Services Revenues |
12/12/2023 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
12/12/2023 | 1800/1300 | *** | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
12/12/2023 | 1900/1400 | ** | ![]() | US | Treasury Budget |
13/12/2023 | 2145/1045 | ** | ![]() | NZ | Current account balance |
13/12/2023 | 2350/0850 | *** | ![]() | JP | Tankan |
13/12/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | ![]() | UK | UK Monthly GDP |
13/12/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | ![]() | UK | Index of Services |
13/12/2023 | 0700/0700 | *** | ![]() | UK | Index of Production |
13/12/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | ![]() | UK | Trade Balance |
13/12/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | ![]() | UK | Output in the Construction Industry |
13/12/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | EU | Industrial Production |
13/12/2023 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
13/12/2023 | 1200/0700 | ** | ![]() | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
13/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | * | ![]() | CA | Household debt-to-income |
13/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | US | PPI |
13/12/2023 | 1530/1030 | ** | ![]() | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
13/12/2023 | 1900/1400 | *** | ![]() | US | FOMC Statement |
14/12/2023 | 2145/1045 | *** | ![]() | NZ | GDP |
14/12/2023 | 2350/0850 | * | ![]() | JP | Machinery orders |
14/12/2023 | 0030/1130 | *** | ![]() | AU | Labor Force Survey |
14/12/2023 | 0430/1330 | ** | ![]() | JP | Industrial production |
14/12/2023 | 0700/0800 | *** | ![]() | SE | Inflation Report |
14/12/2023 | 0745/0845 | * | ![]() | FR | Retail Sales |
14/12/2023 | 0800/0900 | *** | ![]() | ES | HICP (f) |
14/12/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** | ![]() | CH | SNB PolicyRate |
14/12/2023 | 0900/1000 | *** | ![]() | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
14/12/2023 | 1200/1200 | *** | ![]() | UK | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
14/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | US | Jobless Claims |
14/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
14/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
14/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | *** | ![]() | US | Retail Sales |
14/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | Import/Export Price Index |
14/12/2023 | 1400/0900 | * | ![]() | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
14/12/2023 | 1500/1000 | * | ![]() | US | Business Inventories |
14/12/2023 | 1515/1615 | ![]() | EU | ECB Lagarde participates in MP Podcast | |
14/12/2023 | 1530/1030 | ** | ![]() | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
15/12/2023 | 2200/0900 | *** | ![]() | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
15/12/2023 | 0001/0001 | ** | ![]() | UK | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
15/12/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** | ![]() | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
15/12/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** | ![]() | CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
15/12/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** | ![]() | CN | Retail Sales |
15/12/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** | ![]() | CN | Industrial Output |
15/12/2023 | 0200/1000 | ** | ![]() | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
15/12/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | SE | Unemployment |
15/12/2023 | 0745/0845 | *** | ![]() | FR | HICP (f) |
15/12/2023 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
15/12/2023 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
15/12/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
15/12/2023 | 0830/0930 | ** | ![]() | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
15/12/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | IT | Italy Final HICP |
15/12/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
15/12/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
15/12/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
15/12/2023 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
15/12/2023 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | UK | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
15/12/2023 | 0930/0930 | *** | ![]() | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
15/12/2023 | 1000/1100 | * | ![]() | EU | Trade Balance |
15/12/2023 | 1000/1000 | ![]() | UK | BOE's Ramsden Speech at Deloitte on Bank resolution regime | |
15/12/2023 | 1315/0815 | ** | ![]() | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
15/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | * | ![]() | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
15/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | CA | Wholesale Trade |
15/12/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | ![]() | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
15/12/2023 | 1415/0915 | *** | ![]() | US | Industrial Production |
15/12/2023 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash) |
15/12/2023 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
15/12/2023 | 1630/1630 | ![]() | UK | BoE announce APF Sales schedule for Q124 | |
15/12/2023 | 1725/1225 | ![]() | CA | BOC Governor Macklem speech/press conference | |
15/12/2023 | 1800/1300 | ** | ![]() | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
15/12/2023 | 2100/1600 | ** | ![]() | US | TICS |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.