MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - NBH Rate Decision, German Inflation & US Jobs

TUESDAY: NBH RATE DECISION

The NBH are almost certain to deliver another 100bps effective rate cut, in-line with previously offered guidance that the rate will be converged to the 13% base rate by the end of September. Beyond this, there is little consensus among the sell-side regarding the path of the base rate and, therefore, domestic factors and monetary policy could re-emerge as key drivers of the forint moving forward. The NBH may use this juncture to provide updated forward guidance, however, a number of risk-off concerns including the Chinese property sector, volatile European natural gas prices and uncertainty over DM central bank rate paths could prompt the NBH to act with a greater degree of caution instead.

WEDNESDAY: GERMAN PRELIMINARY INFLATION

Regional and national preliminary German CPI prints cross on Wednesday, with the EU-harmonized print expected to slow to 0.3% M/M and 6.3% on a Y/Y basis. Following the round of particularly poor August flash PMIs, markets are on watch for a stagflationary scenario in the German economy.

Germany's report showed more weakness in the Services sector than expected – contrasting with continued inflationary pressures, making for a "stagflationary" report. Notably, the survey showed an increase in inflationary pressures, driven by accelerated cost and price increases in the service sector. Input cost and output prices rose for the first time in 11 / 7 months, respectively. There was a "steep and accelerated increase in operating expenses faced by services firms, who not only commented on the higher cost of fuel, but also sustained wage pressures".

Bundesbank President Nagel has recently retained his hawkish backdrop, stating that the ECB must be stubborn to root out inflation, with core inflation pressures proving to be sticky.

FRIDAY: US JOBS REPORT

Markets expect the US to have added 168k jobs over the month of August, with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 3.5%. The release follows the preliminary estimate of the payrolls benchmark revision as part of the QCEW release last week. The data suggested the level of payrolls could be revised lower by -306k in the twelve month period up to March 2023 – a smaller downward revision than many had estimated, a further sign that the Fed’s persistent tightening cycle is yet to trigger tumult in the US labor market.

At the Jackson Hole Policy Symposium, Powell again referred to the jobs market as ‘tight’ and stated that the rebalancing of the labor market is incomplete. Perhaps most importantly, he said “evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response.” Markets will be looking for any evidence via wage growth, with average hourly earnings seen slowing by 0.1ppts on both the M/M and Y/Y measures.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
29/08/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
29/08/2023	0600/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
29/08/2023	0600/0800	***		SE	GDP
29/08/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
29/08/2023	0600/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
29/08/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
29/08/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
29/08/2023	1300/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
29/08/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
29/08/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Quarterly Price Index
29/08/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
29/08/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Quarterly Price Index
29/08/2023	1400/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
29/08/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS jobs opening level
29/08/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS quits Rate
29/08/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
29/08/2023	1430/1530			UK	DMO Quarterly Investor/GEMM Consultation Meetings
29/08/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
29/08/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
29/08/2023	1900/1500			US	Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
30/08/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	Quarterly construction work done
30/08/2023	0130/1130	*		AU	Building Approvals
30/08/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	CPI Inflation Monthly
30/08/2023	0530/0730	***		DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
30/08/2023	0600/1400	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Survey
30/08/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	HICP (p)
30/08/2023	0700/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
30/08/2023	0700/0900	*		CH	KOF Economic Barometer
30/08/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
30/08/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
30/08/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	Bavaria CPI
30/08/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE M4
30/08/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE Lending to Individuals
30/08/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
30/08/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	Saxony CPI
30/08/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
30/08/2023	1200/1400	***		DE	HICP (p)
30/08/2023	1215/0815	***		US	ADP Employment Report
30/08/2023	1230/0830	***		US	GDP
30/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
30/08/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAR Pending Home Sales
30/08/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
31/08/2023	0130/1130	*		AU	Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure
31/08/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/08/2023	0130/0930	**		CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
31/08/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Retail Sales
31/08/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Import/Export Prices
31/08/2023	0630/0830	**		CH	Retail Sales
31/08/2023	0630/0730			UK	DMO to publish Oct-Dec issuance calendar
31/08/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
31/08/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	PPI
31/08/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	GDP (f)
31/08/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
31/08/2023	0700/0900			EU	ECB's Schnabel Speaks at Conference
31/08/2023	0715/0315			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
31/08/2023	0715/0815			UK	BoE's Pill speaks at South African Reserve Bank conference
31/08/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
31/08/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
31/08/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
31/08/2023	0900/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
31/08/2023	1130/1330			EU	ECB MP Meeting Account Publication
31/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
31/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
31/08/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Current account
31/08/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
31/08/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
31/08/2023	1300/0900			US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
31/08/2023	1342/0942	**		US	MNI Chicago PMI
31/08/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
31/08/2023	1600/1800			EU	ECB's de Guindos Speaks at Conference
01/09/2023	2300/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/09/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/09/2023	0130/1130	**		AU	Lending Finance Details
01/09/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/09/2023	0630/0830	***		CH	CPI
01/09/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/09/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/09/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/09/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/09/2023	0800/1000	***		IT	GDP (f)
01/09/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/09/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/09/2023	0900/1100	**		IT	PPI
01/09/2023	1000/0600			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
01/09/2023	1000/1100			UK	BoE's Pill speaks at South African Reserve Bank conference
01/09/2023	-	***		US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/09/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Employment Report
01/09/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
01/09/2023	1345/0945			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
01/09/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
01/09/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Manufacturing Index
01/09/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Construction Spending
04/09/2023	0130/1130			AU	Business Indicators
04/09/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Trade Balance
04/09/2023	0700/0900	***		CH	GDP
04/09/2023	0700/0300	*		TR	Turkey CPI
05/09/2023	2300/0900	*		AU	IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI