Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Developed Markets
TUESDAY - Canada May CPI
Canada CPI for May is released on Tuesday for the second major release since the BoC opted for its first cut of the cycle on Jun 5 in a not fully priced decision. For May, Bloomberg consensus sees the average of median and trim CPI dipping just 0.05pps to 2.7% Y/Y. As usual, we also watch higher frequency metrics (3-mth and 6-mth at 1.6% and 2.4% annualized in April) along with the various more traditional core measures which have been trending softer still over six months. It’s worth noting that the Jun 18 update to CPI weights adds an extra layer of consideration. BMO estimate the changes could make inflation "a touch stickier", but the impact will be minor and didn’t materially change their CPI forecast.
THURSDAY - Riksbank Decision
The Riksbank are widely expected to keep rates on hold at 3.75%. After cutting rates by 25bps in May, the March MPR rate path assigned a very small probability of a consecutive move in June. Executive Board communication since then has also stressed that such a move is very unlikely. Focus will therefore lie in the updated policy path in the June MPR. We think the rate path will be broadly unchanged across the forecast horizon, and therefore will still be consistent with Riksbank guidance for two rate cuts in H2 2024 (and its cautious and gradual approach to easing policy).
THURSDAY/FRIDAY - US Q1 GDP / May PCE
Thursday sees the third release for Q1 national accounts. The second estimate from late May saw a further trimming of GDP growth to 1.3% annualized although this hides a stronger domestic demand backdrop with final sales rising 2.5% annualized along with healthy imports dragging 1pps from quarterly GDP growth. Friday then sees the monthly PCE/incomes report for May, with core PCE seen at a soft 0.1% M/M (possibly on the ‘higher’ side of a 0.1 judging by some unrounded analyst estimates). Despite this being below the monthly pace consistent with the 2% target, the dropping out of a particularly soft 0.09% M/M from November should limit disinflationary progress on six-month metrics – it could stay at 3.2% annualized or even tick a tenth higher. This is notable stickiness. The core PCE Y/Y stood at 2.75% Y/Y in April and could drop to 2.6% Y/Y in May, meaning a fourth consecutive month with the six-month rate in excess of the Y/Y. The latest FOMC projections have core PCE at 2.8% Y/Y in 4Q24 (lifted +0.2pps from the March round).
THURSDAY - Trump/Biden Election Debate
The first of two 2024 presidential election debates will take place on June 27. The debate will be broadcast by CNN and hosted by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. The debate was negotiated directly by CNN and the Biden and Trump campaigns, ducking the Commission on Presidential Debates for the first time since 1988. The debate will be the most widely watched event of the campaign so far. It will provide the first real opportunity to win votes from the small group of undecided voters who will ultimately determine the winner in November, many of whom may be tuning into the politics of the race for the first time.FRIDAY - Spain, France and Italy Flash June Inflation
Friday sees the release of June flash inflation figures from Spain, France and Italy. This month is somewhat peculiar in that the Italian print is released before - rather than alongside - the Eurozone-wide figure (which is due on Tuesday July 2). Early consensus expects a deceleration in headline HICP inflation in Spain and France, and a small acceleration in Italy. Services will once again be in focus across countries, after Eurozone-wide services inflation accelerated to 4.1% Y/Y in May (vs 3.7% prior). The Eurozone June flash PMI noted that “ selling prices increased at slower rates in France and the rest of the eurozone, but at a faster pace in Germany”. We will be watchful of whether these dynamics are confirmed in next week’s hard data. While a July ECB cut is very unlikely, the June inflation data will feed into discussions on whether a second cut of 2024 can be enacted at the next projection meeting in September.
Emerging Markets
THURSDAY - BSP Decision (Philippines)
BSP meets on June 27 and is expected to leave the overnight borrowing rate at 6.5% despite currency weakness. It is also unlikely to let FX concerns change its less hawkish tone. While headline inflation rose 0.1pp to 3.9% in May, it is still in the target band. BSP will likely be reassured that core moderated 0.1pp to 3.1%. The first rate cut is unlikely to come before the Fed.
THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)
Risks appear to be balanced over whether Banxico could deliver a 25bp rate cut or continue to hold the overnight rate at 11.00%. The minutes of the May meeting suggested a June adjustment may be considered and is made more likely considering the downside surprise for Core CPI in May. However, post-election market turbulence, the sharp depreciation of the peso and a cautious Fed might be skewing risks towards another hold. Mid-month inflation data is due Monday and could provide a crucial ingredient for the committee.
THURSDAY - CNB Decision (Czechia)
Several Bank Board members admitted that June’s rate decision will be between a 25bp and 50bp cut, making it a close call. Most analysts seem to believe that the pace of monetary easing could be reduced already this month, albeit both options are on the table. In any case, Governor Ales Michl will likely deploy his characteristic hawkish rhetoric, flagging the need to keep monetary policy settings restrictive for longer.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
The CBRT is widely expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50% on Thursday having reached the peak of its hiking cycle back in March. Nevertheless, further adjustments to the central bank’s policy toolkit may be forthcoming – namely through its policies to govern credit growth rates and reserve requirements. Among sell-side, potential cuts are seen towards the end of the year with the inflation peak now behind us.
FRIDAY - BanRep Decision (Colombia)
Analysts appear in agreement that BanRep will cut the overnight rate by 50bps to 11.25%, as core CPI continues to decline, albeit in a gradual manner. The committee is expected to maintain a cautious/hawkish tone amid an increasingly challenging fiscal backdrop, tight global financial conditions, and above-target inflation expectations.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 23/06/2024 | 1320/1520 |  | EU | ECB's Schnabel on the conferral of the Weltwirtschaftlicher Preis 2024 | |
| 24/06/2024 | 0700/0300 |  | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 24/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** |  | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24/06/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | UK | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24/06/2024 | 1300/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 24/06/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 24/06/2024 | 1530/1730 | | EU | ECB's Schnabel in panel on 'Investing in Sovereignty" | |
| 24/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 24/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 24/06/2024 | 1730/1330 |  | CA | BOC Governor Macklem speech in Winnipeg. | |
| 24/06/2024 | 1800/1400 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 25/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | SE | PPI |
| 25/06/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** |  | ES | GDP (f) |
| 25/06/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | | ES | PPI |
| 25/06/2024 | 0900/1000 | * | | UK | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 25/06/2024 | 1100/0700 | | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 25/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | CA | CPI |
| 25/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 25/06/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 25/06/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 25/06/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 25/06/2024 | 1300/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 25/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 25/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 25/06/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 25/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 25/06/2024 | 1600/1200 | | US | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 25/06/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 25/06/2024 | 1810/1410 | | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 26/06/2024 | 0130/1130 | *** |  | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 26/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | * | | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 26/06/2024 | 0600/1400 | ** |  | CN | MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI) |
| 26/06/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** |  | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26/06/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 26/06/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26/06/2024 | 1040/1240 | | EU | ECB's Lane speech at Bank of Finland MonPol conference | |
| 26/06/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 26/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | New Home Sales |
| 26/06/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 26/06/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 26/06/2024 | 1700/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 26/06/2024 | 2000/2100 | | UK | BBC Leaders Head-to-Head debate | |
| 27/06/2024 | 2350/0850 | * |  | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 27/06/2024 | 0130/1130 | | AU | Job Vacancies | |
| 27/06/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 27/06/2024 | 0730/0930 | *** | | SE | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
| 27/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | M3 |
| 27/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 27/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 27/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | IT | PPI |
| 27/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 27/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | * | | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 27/06/2024 | 1100/0700 | *** |  | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 27/06/2024 | 1215/1415 | | EU | ECB's Elderson speech on Banking Supervision at Allen & Overy | |
| 27/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 27/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 27/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | GDP |
| 27/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 27/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 27/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 27/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 27/06/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 27/06/2024 | 1500/1100 | ** | | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 27/06/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 27/06/2024 | 1900/1500 | *** |  | MX | Mexico Interest Rate |
| 28/06/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** | | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 28/06/2024 | 2330/0830 | * | | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 28/06/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | | JP | Industrial Production |
| 27/06/2024 | 0100/2100 | | US | Trump-Biden Debate | |
| 28/06/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | GDP Second Estimate |
| 28/06/2024 | 0600/0700 | * | | UK | Quarterly current account balance |
| 28/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 28/06/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | SE | Retail Sales |
| 28/06/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** | | FR | HICP (p) |
| 28/06/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | PPI |
| 28/06/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 28/06/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** | | ES | HICP (p) |
| 28/06/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** |  | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 28/06/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | | DE | Unemployment |
| 28/06/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 28/06/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | IT | HICP (p) |
| 28/06/2024 | 1000/0600 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 28/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 28/06/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 28/06/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 28/06/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 28/06/2024 | 1500/1100 | | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 28/06/2024 | 1600/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Acreage - NASS |
| 28/06/2024 | 1600/1200 | ** | | US | USDA GrainStock - NASS |
| 28/06/2024 | 1600/1200 | | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 28/06/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.