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The Norges Bank kept rates unchanged, alongside expectations, at 0%.
- The bank steepened their rate path projections in response to higher oil prices and a smoother-than-expected rollout of the vaccine programme
- First rate hike now fully priced for December 2021, but possibility of hike as soon as September
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The new Norges Bank rate path projections were slightly more hawkish than expected, but broadly inline with market consensus. The first rate hike is now fully priced for December (brought forward by around a quarter from the December MPR) and there is now a possibility of a rate hike as early as September.
Two further full rate hikes are now priced into 2022 and the terminal rate was nudged higher toward 1.5% out to the end of the forecast horizon, which now includes 2024.
Figure 1: March 2021 rate path steepened from December MPR
Source: MNI/Norges Bank
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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