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MNI Payrolls Preview: Softer Jobs Growth Eyed

US
  • Nonfarm payrolls seen at 325k in May as the pace eases further from 428k in both March and April, down from the 600k in the prior six-month average but still twice the pace of the monthly gain through 2019.
  • Inflation concerns clearly remain key though so it’s not the rate of jobs growth as much as labour market tightness that continues to matter.
  • Consensus has average hourly earnings growth firming to +0.4% M/M but some analysts below note downside risk from a calendar quirk.
  • A payrolls miss has potential to drive a sizeable bear flattening if combined with limited rises in labour supply, a lower or stable u/e rate and still strong wage growth.
See the full note including MNI analysis and previews from eleven sellside analysts here: https://marketnews.com/mni-us-payrolls-preview-softer-jobs-growth-eyed
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