MNI PINCH UPDATE: There has been a.........>

EUROZONE: MNI PINCH UPDATE: There has been a marginal downshift in the ECB hike

probability for December 2019 since last week. The probability of a 10bps hike

to the depo rate has fallen back to 66.1% from 69.5%. Economic and political

risks are bubbling across the eurozone. Inflation has edged lower, the German

autos sector is struggling in the face of a tougher global backdrop and the

overhang of the emissions scandal, GDP data show the Italian economy

contracting, Rome and Brussels continue to square off over the 2019 budget and

French President Emmanuel Macron has faced a severe backlash over planned fuel

tax increases. In addition, we have recently highlighted the sharp drop in

inflation expectations on the back of the oil market correction, which could

further stymie efforts by the ECB to normalise monetary policy. While an end to

the asset purchase programme at next week's governing council meeting is widely

expected, policy rate adjustments could still be some way off.

- For the full PINCH results please see

http://marketnews-m.objects.xtenit.com/MNI_PINCH_UPDATE.pdf