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Free AccessMNI POLICY: NY Fed Survey: Sharp Deterioration In Expectations
By Evan Ryser
WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. consumer views of job security, earnings, income,
and spending growth were the worst on record in the New York Federal Reserve's
April consumer survey.
The 20.9%, up from 18.5%, of respondents who said their job is at risk was
a new record in survey data back to 2013, according to the report Monday.
Respondents who said they would find a job in the next three months, if a
current job was lost, plunged 6.1 percentage points to 40.7%, the largest
month-to-month decline recorded since 2013.
Median expectations for earnings growth, and income growth also showed
declines. Unemployment expectations retreated slightly from last month's series
high of 50.9% to 47.6%.
The survey recorded a substantial deterioration in financial and economic
expectations, including sharp declines in household income and spending growth
expectations.
-- MISSING DEBT PAYMENTS
The Internet-based survey with a rotating panel of 1,300 households showed
perceived and expected availability of credit worsened.
For the first time since the inception of the survey in 2013, the median
respondent expects no increase in home prices over the next 12 months.
Median household spending growth expectations declined 0.1pp to 2.2% in
April, a new record low. "This decrease was driven mostly by respondents between
the age of 40 and 60, similar to the decline in median household income growth
expectations," the report said.
And average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over
next three months increased for the second consecutive month to 16.2% in April,
well above the 12-month trailing average of 11.9%.
--EARNINGS, INFLATION
Median earnings growth expectations for the next twelve months fell to 1.8%
in April from 2.0% in March, matching series' record lows. "The drop was
broad-based across all age and income groups."
The survey of consumer expectations, one of the Fed's price gauges as it
weighs interest rates policy, showed increased consumer disagreement about the
future path of inflation, as median inflation expectations at the one-year
horizon ticked up slightly by 0.1% to 2.6%.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: evan.ryser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.