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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19 Tracker – Nov 17

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

  • On 16 November, drug manufacturer Moderna became the second Western pharma major to announce that its candidate COVID-19 vaccine was largely effective in protecting against the virus. The vaccine is 94.5% effective according to the firm, exceeding the efficacy of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate vaccine announced earlier in November. While both firms expect to begin distribution of the drug in December or early January, there remain questions as to how long the immunity lasts.
  • Canada registered 6,027 new COVID-19 cases on 16 November, the highest 24 hour total during the pandemic so far, and pushing the country's total number of cases past 300,000. The Greater Toronto Area and indeed the province of Ontario are mulling greater restrictions, or even a lockdown similar to the spring, according to Toronto Mayor John Tory and Ontario Premier Doug Ford.
  • Iran recorded its highest number of fatalities in a 24 hour period during the pandemic so far on 16 November, with 486 deaths registered due to COVID-19. Like many countries, Iran recorded a sustained decline in new cases and fatalities over the summer, but is now in the midst of an escalating second wave of infections and fatalities that started in early September, but has accelerated in October and early November. Iran has the eighth-highest number of COVID-19 related fatalities worldwide.
Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0700BST November 17. N.b. Each dot represents a single day's figures, data for past three months

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